Fantasy Rankings After the Julio Jones Trade
Why the trade was perfect for the Titans and fantasy football in general.
After a long offseason of losing player and coaching talent, the Titans desperately needed to make a big move to keep their Super Bowl dreams alive. And it’s fair to say that trading for Julio Jones qualifies.
In 2020, Julio Jones was the WR3 in PPR Per Game, the WR7 in Fantasy Usage Per Game, the WR4 in PPR Over Expected Per Game, the WR4 in Yards Per Route Run (PFF), the WR5 in Points Earned Per Route Run (SIS), and the WR1 in EPA per Target (SIS). Julio was just as good on a per route basis last season (2.60 yards) as he was in 2019 (2.49) and 2018 (2.93), too, so it really just comes down to staying on the field and not suffering a sudden decline in play as a 32-year-old.
With the Titans’ Super Bowl window appearing to be nearly closed, the upside of the trade appears well worth the downside risk factoring in the price they paid. Julio was essentially moved for a 2022 2nd-rounder and a 2023 Day 3 pick swap. Mohamed Sanu, defensive players, and non-QB prospects are traded for similar capital each season.
His contract is reasonable, too, assuming he isn’t going to sit out for a new contract all of a sudden. The Titans will pay him $15.3M in 2021 and $11.5M in each of the next two seasons. Those cap numbers will soon be outside of the top-10 at the position, and the Titans are only taking on $17.3M in guarantees across the life of the contract. For more on the contract implications, please check out Jason Fitzgerald’s work on OverTheCap.com.
My 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings Changes
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Julio Jones (From WR15 to WR15)
Jones’ film and per snap production still looked very good last season, and the Titans won’t be forcing him into 10+ targets per game in their balanced offense. The odds of him staying healthy are likely a tad higher because of that, and his fit in a play action offense that throws the ball in the intermediate part of the field (see below) is ideal. In a similar role last year, Corey Davis was the WR31 per game on WR9 efficiency. I like Julio’s odds of beating those stats in 2021, especially with Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries out of the way. The Titans are replenishing 48% of their available targets from last year, the second most in the NFL courtesy of John Daigle.
Ryan Tannehill (QB17 to QB12)
The Julio Jones trade moves Tannehill up an entire tier. He was the QB12 last season, and now his skill group isn’t nearly as bad as it was just yesterday. I still have concerns about the depth of this offense and the play-caller downgrade, but Tannehill’s elite efficiency from the past two seasons has earned him the benefit of the doubt in my rankings.
Matt Ryan (QB13 to QB14)
I was already assuming Julio Jones was being traded in my initial rankings, so there’s not much of a change in my rankings. All of Ryan’s historical on/off splits with/without Jones are drastic, but they will look worse than what should be projected for 2021 now that Ryan has a better play caller and Kyle Pitts to throw the ball to.
A.J. Brown (WR4 to WR8)
Already one of the best receivers in the game, Brown should be projected for outlier-ish efficiency stats with Julio Jones now lined up across from him. While the per target numbers will look All-Pro, his raw projection does take a hit with Jones deserving of a rock solid target share. Brown had 200 targets in his range of outcomes prior to this trade. Now he’s back in the 140–160 range. Still great, but no longer in the Tyreek Hill conversation. Brown was the WR9 per game using Underdog Fantasy scoring last year.
Calvin Ridley (WR6 to WR4)
Ridley’s projection doesn’t change too much for me because I was already assuming Jones was being moved, but the trade does solidify his already high floor and now gives him a top-3 receiver ceiling. Last year, Ridley averaged 0.8 more expected PPR points per game when Jones wasn’t in the lineup. He deserves to be projected for more production with him gone, but I worry some analysts will overrate the predictiveness of past on/off splits. Those splits are filled with small sample variance, and don’t factor in the presence of a legit №2 pass catcher (like Kyle Pitts) in the offense.
Kyle Pitts (TE4 to TE4)
Pitts deserves to be treated like an outlier. He was far and away the best tight end prospect in my model all time, and he now has the available targets to go to work right away. His length and athleticism will be maximized in what should be a pass-heavy offense given their lack of a defense, and I’m comfortable in my pre-draft evaluation of Pitts to project him for top-five numbers. I just won’t be willing to pull the trigger before Round 4 or Round 5 of Underdog Fantasy drafts. It’s possible the market moves him closer to the George Kittle or Darren Waller range. That’d be rich.
Russell Gage (WR63 to WR56)
Gage is a clear winner because the Falcons project for more pass attempts with fewer than three receivers on the field. Gage should be in the lineup on most of the Falcons’ dropbacks, and he averaged 1.5 more expected PPR points per game without Jones in the lineup last season. The worry with Gage is that he’s a replaceable-level talent, and the Falcons have some cap space to add more talent to their now-barren receiver depth chart. There’s a chance another body is added to the mix in August.
Hayden Hurst (TE29 to TE24)
Hurst deserves to be drafted in the late rounds now as a borderline TE2/3. Arthur Smith used 12-personnel on 31% of his pass attempts last season, the second most in the NFL. And that’s how the Falcons’ roster is constructed for right now. Hurst would need Calvin Ridley or Kyle Pitts to miss time to be relevant, but he at least has skills and a path to a ceiling. Other TE3s don’t.
Anthony Firkser (TE13 to TE17)
A large chunk of the Titans’ 48% available targets will go to Julio, but Firkser still can carve out an inconsistent role as Tannehill’s potential third option in the pass game. Jonnu Smith had a 15% target share when healthy last year. A similar slice of the pie would warrant TE2 consideration for Firk Daddy.
Josh Reynolds (WR71 to WR89)
He never emerged in Los Angeles, and he’s now buried in the pecking order in Tennessee.
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