Hayden Winks’ One Week Out Mock Draft

Hayden Winks
Underdog Sports
13 min readApr 22, 2021

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32 picks and prospect fits. Plus other Round 1 candidates.

As always, I’m in the business of making predictions, not making picks as if I were the GM. There will be some minor changes over the next week as more news roles through, but I’m beginning to feel good with these prospect/team fits and the ranges of where the prospects are expected to go.

I think there are some nuggets in here that’d help with the $25k Rookies + Sophomores Tournament that’s quickly filling because it’s so dope. I have an explainer column here with five strategy tips and my custom tailored rankings. If you’re new to Underdog, sign up below:

1. Jaguars — Clemson QB1 Trevor Lawrence

No report suggests otherwise.

2. Jets — BYU QB2 Zach Wilson

I’m not sure why Wilson is considered a lock over Justin Fields, but no report suggests otherwise.

3. 49ers — Alabama QB3 Mac Jones

All three quarterbacks make sense here for different reasons. Justin Fields is the best (in my opinion) and has a long-term relationship with coach Kyle Shanahan. Trey Lance fits into the Jimmy Garoppolo one-year timeline, ran the closest offense to the 49ers’ in college, and has high-end dual threat traits that could transform San Francisco’s rushing offense. And Mac Jones resembles Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo the closest and arguably has the highest rookie year floor for this playoff-ready Niners roster. I currently lean Jones with Adam Schefter, Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, Peter Schrager, Peter King, and other insiders predicting the pick right now. If it were me drafting, I’d sprint the card up for Fields.

4. Falcons — Florida TE1 Kyle Pitts

Benjamin Allbright reported that Falcons GM Terry Fontento likes Trey Lance “a lot”, but does the Falcons’ 78-year-old owner or the Falcons’ first year head coach want to rebuild right now with Matt Ryan’s contract holding the roster hostage for the next two years? I’m skeptical. Instead Atlanta can go with the best player available, or trade down. Only the Lions and Broncos are potentially in the rookie QB hunt inside the top-14 and it’s rare for teams picking inside the top-5 to drop all the way out of the top-14, so the Falcons just may not have a trade down suitor willing to give up multiple first round picks. The consolation prize here is Pitts, who is the best non-quarterback in this draft and the best tight end ever in my model.

5. Bengals — LSU WR1 Ja’Marr Chase

When asked about offensive line prospects, Bengals GM Duke Tobin said, “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on … We think having healthy guys there and then the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and (there will) still be additions to be named later.” His assessment matches what most draft analysts are saying, which is that this offensive line class has plenty of starting talent on Day 2. Plus the actual short-term needs on this offensive line are at guard and center, not offensive tackle. With all that said, reuniting Joe Burrow with his productive LSU teammate checks out.

6. Broncos (via MIA) — North Dakota State QB4 Trey Lance

Broncos beat reporter Benjamin Allbright has been consistent in his reporting that the Broncos aren’t looking to trade up, but I think a small move from nine to six is a lot different than the moves fans have been begging for (ie moving all the way up to third or fourth). With the Dolphins looking to trade back and with DET/CAR being threats for quarterbacks at 7/8, Denver finds their future franchise quarterback with a small trade up the board. Lance has better tools than Drew Lock and could sit a half season as he goes from owning the FCS to not playing in 2020 and now up to the NFL.

7. Patriots (via DET) — Ohio State QB5 Justin Fields

It would be classic NFL if teams allow Bill Belichick to trade up for an accurate Power 5 passer with 4.44 speed, but I really think it’s possible if the 49ers pass on him at third overall. Fields would be a perfect fit in every scheme, including New England’s. After a free agency spending spree, the Patriots need to keep costs low at quarterback, and Fields’ dual-threat abilities could be applied nicely in an offense that’s been tailored towards Cam Newton’s strengths. It doesn’t hurt that Newton has been Fields’ mentor for years and that Fields is an absolute baller:

8. Panthers — Northwestern OT1 Rashawn Slater

With Sam Darnold on the roster and with the entire 2020 NFL Draft being spent on defense, the Panthers feel likely to draft an offensive lineman in Round 1. Despite a ton of hype, Penei Sewell isn’t a lock to be the first tackle off the board with many viewing Slater as a potential franchise left tackle with an All-Pro ceiling at guard if that fails. In fact, Jeremiah and Schrager both mocked Slater ahead of Sewell in their most-recent columns.

9. Dolphins (via DEN) — Alabama WR2 Jaylen Waddle

The trade back into the top-10 suggests this pick will be an offensive tackle or pass-catcher, and I lean Waddle over Smith if Chase and Pitts are off the board. Either Alabama receiver would complement the towering outside receivers in Miami (Devante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams), but there’s been rumors that Waddle is viewed as the better prospect by those inside the cocoon. Eric Galko, who owns a scouting service with ties to the NFL, told me on Twitter that he thinks “most of the league is Waddle > Smith (as am I).” Galko isn’t the type to spit b.s. either.

10. Chargers (via DAL) — Oregon OT2 Penei Sewell

Predicting a trade up for an offensive lineman is the definition of galaxy-braining, but the Chargers did trade up for LB Kenneth Murray last year so there’s some precedent. And the fit couldn’t make more sense with L.A. having a massive hole at left tackle and with the Sewell to Justin Herbert connection adding a fun element to the entire thing. Now that I think about it more, it’d be a surprise if the Chargers aren’t considering a trade up for Sewell or Slater. P.S. Shoutout to Josh for coming up with this idea. And no, I don’t feel bad for stealing it.

11. Giants — Michigan EDGE1 Kwity Paye

I’m expecting Paye to be the first edge rusher off the board. His off-field story and reputation, 86th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, health, and Power 5 experience check all boxes. He’s also a perfect fit in New York. The Giants have some undersized role players on the roster, but they don’t have the 260-plus pounder flying off the edge. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan said, “Consider it a major upset if their first or second pick isn’t used on an edge rusher.”

12. Eagles — Alabama WR3 Devonta Smith

By trading down, the Eagles likely won’t have to decide which pass-catcher to take. That decision was made by the Bengals and Dolphins earlier in the mock draft, leaving the 2020 Heisman in Jalen Hurts’ lap. Smith can be a volume receiver with underneath and intermediate ability while Jalen Reagor can focus on winning vertical routes. Whiffing on Reagor over Justin Jefferson shouldn’t make them afraid of drafting a receiver in this draft. That’s just playing scared.

13. Cowboys (via LAC) — Alabama CB1 Patrick Surtain

Dallas’ biggest team need is an outside corner opposite Trevon Diggs, and Surtain has been the consensus top corner for months. In addition to having NFL bloodlines, Surtain has 93rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (39-inch vert at 6’2/208) and executed college football’s most complex defense to near perfection.

14. Vikings — USC OG1 Alijah Vera-Tucker

It’s unclear if Ezra Cleveland is viewed as a left tackle or guard long term. With the consensus top two tackles already taken here, the Vikings push Cleveland to left tackle and bolster their suspect interior with Vera-Tucher, who is universally ranked as the best interior player in the class and a perfect fit as a fluid mover in the Vikings’ zone rushing scheme. Minnesota should also be in the mix for an edge rusher.

15. Lions (via NE) — Penn State LB1 Micah Parsons

Parsons could go as high as seventh overall (ironically to the Lions) or slide because of his involvement in a Penn State hazing event. In this dream scenario for them, Detroit adds picks in future drafts and selects a versatile, blue-chip prospect on defense with 4.36 speed.

16. Cardinals — South Carolina CB2 Jaycee Horn

It’s too confident to say this is Horn’s absolute floor, but this is Horn’s absolute floor. The Cardinals don’t have a single long-term option at the position right now, and their defense requires high-end talent on the outside. They play a ton of Cover 1 man defense *and* blitz at top-five rates. Athleticism and press-man experience are the traits Arizona covets, and Horn has 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and pressed the hell out of the SEC all year long. This would be a home run pick.

17. Raiders — Oklahoma State OT3 Teven Jenkins

The Trent Brown trade leaves Vegas with a wide open need at right tackle. Jenkins is the highest-graded right tackle in the class and has the on-field nastiness of a Gruden Raider. The Oklahoma State product is now locked into Round 1 after showing 90th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism at his pro day.

18. Dolphins — Tulsa LB2 Zaven Collins

Miami traded for inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney this offseason, but Collins could be used in more creative ways than him because he is versatile and has quality athleticism and size (6’5/260). If you want an insane scouting report on Collins, check out Derrik Klassen’s column here. Klassen is a fantastic follow on Twitter, too.

19. Washington — Virginia Tech OT4 Christian Darrisaw

The Football Team’s offensive line is serviceable but lacks top-tier talent and youth. Their youngest OL starter turns 28 years old in 2021. Darrisaw has immense potential if his inconsistent hustle can be cleaned up. Getting him in the building with coach Ron Rivera and respected journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick would be ideal for all parties.

20. Bears — Ole Miss WR4 Elijah Moore

Addressing cornerback or the offensive line would be in the best interest of the Bears’ long-term vision, but GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy don’t have long-term job security. Moore’s flashy playmaking will elevate Andy Dalton and complement Allen Robinson (intermediate) and Darnell Mooney (deep) immediately. Moore was in Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, and Peter Schrager’s latest mock drafts, and I have a glowing scouting report on him:

21. Colts — Georgia EDGE2 Azeez Ojulari

Indy’s has two top-100 picks and two primary needs — LT (Anthony Castonzo retired) and EDGE (Justin Houston and Denico Autry are unsigned). With the top-tier tackles off the board, the Colts find their franchise edge rusher in Ojulari. He has 89th percentile adjusted production with plus attributes against the run as an edge setter. Because the Colts blitz on just 17% of their plays, finding a legit pass rusher is massively needed.

22. Titans — Minnesota WR5 Rashod Bateman

With Terrace Marshall’s reported injury concerns, Bateman seems like he’s the favorite to go Round 1 among the non-slot types in this range. In my opinion, Bateman was the better player already and comes with an underrated ceiling. He’s a lengthy receiver with inside/outside experience, nuanced footwork and coverage understanding, and 4.40 speed. He’d be excellent as the second receiver in Tennessee’s two-TE heavy offense.

23. Jets — Northwestern CB3 Greg Newsome

It’s no secret that New York is really struggling at corner, and I think Newsome’s experience playing in off coverage matches well with coach Robert Salah’s Cover 3 defense. A 70th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete (4.38 forty), Newsome is one of four corners in this class who projects as an NFL CB1. It doesn’t hurt that they’ve had virtual meetings with each other already.

24. Steelers — Alabama RB1 Najee Harris

Adam Schefter had the 231-pound back on his podcast earlier this month and said, “I’ll bet you, I could see you as a Pittsburgh Steeler.” Harris noted that he’s met with essentially the entire organization already, too. I wouldn’t make this pick given their needs along the offensive line and at corner, but can’t you see them saying that Harris will make the line look better while also providing aging Ben Roethlisberger with an on-field crutch? I can.

25. Jaguars — Notre Dame LB3 (or SS1) Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

Despite being listed as a linebacker by most, Owusu-Koramoah will likely play as a box safety with some snaps in the slot. He’s not a three-down thumping MIKE, and instead flashes in coverage with his speed and instincts. Owusu-Koramoah is the unicorn that’s expected to be able to run with tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs.

26. Browns — Alabama DT1 Christian Barmore

I’ll be lazy and slide the consensus №1 defensive tackle to Cleveland after they cut three-tech Sheldon Richardson this offseason. Barmore is raw, but he’s a 21-year-old early-declare with pedigree and a lot of twitch. He has a chance to be an inside pass-rusher with some development. Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney, and Barmore would be a nice trio for 2021.

27. Ravens — TCU FS1 Trevon Moehrig

Baltimore desperately needs a physical outside receiver and an edge rusher, but their safety depth chart is quietly weak. Moehrig has a versatile skill set but best projects as a deep safety. In Baltimore, he’ll play a lot of single-high safety in their blitz-heavy Cover 1 man defense, but Moehrig can also defend tight ends in the slot and can fly into the box to clean up against the run. Safeties must be able to tackle in this aggressive defense, and Moehrig certainly can.

28. Saints — Kentucky LB4 Jamin Davis

Davis’ production last year (102 tackles in 10 games) and pro day results this offseason (86th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) are that of a fringe Round 1 player. New Orleans’ defense looked at it’s best last year when current free agent Kwon Alexander was flying around the field next to 33-year-old Demario Davis. (Jamin) Davis could be an Alexander replacement this year and be the long-term answer for (Demario) Davis. It also helps that badass beat reporter Nick Underhill mocked Davis to the Saints in the Underdog Community Mock Draft.

29. Packers — Virginia Tech CB4 Caleb Farley

Farley was getting top-10 buzz prior to his recent back surgery, the second of his career. It’s unknown if teams have received good or bad news since he went under the knife, but he definitely has Round 1 tape and athleticism. The Packers have some depth if Farley’s injury lingers as a rookie, but he’d be an immediate upgrade over Kevin King when he takes the field. Farley plus Jaire Alexander is scary.

30. Bills — Washington EDGE3 Joe Tryon

Buffalo’s top edge rushers are 33-year-old Jerry Hughes and 34-year-old Mario Addison, and the defense was already trending down last year. They were 23rd in pressure rate despite blitzing at the ninth-highest rate. Those connected to the league believe Tryon may sneak into the end of Round 1. He certainly has the athleticism (4.59 forty at 6'5/259) to be considered here.

31. Chiefs — Alabama OT6 Alex Leatherwood

Leatherwood played left tackle at Alabama and has the athleticism (88th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) of a potential left tackle in the pros. Some see him as a high-ceiling guard, however. Either way is fine for the Chiefs who need help inside and outside. A Leatherwood selection here would leave the opportunity for either Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz to return right before the season if their health clears up.

32. Bucs — Miami EDGE4 Jaelan Phillips

Tampa Bay doesn’t have any glaring needs, so they are a true best player available team with an emphasis on finding rookie-year impact players. Phillips is just that. The five-star recruit may fall for having an odd collegiate career that included a retirement and injuries, but if his background checks out (potentially a big if), Phillips has All Pro potential. He has 95th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and had 80th percentile production in 2020. Phillips would be JPP insurance and could provide an EDGE3 spark.

Other Round 1 Candidates

RB Travis Etienne: A top-35 player for Grinding The Mocks, Dane Brugler, and Daniel Jeremiah. I wanted to fit him but didn’t like the fits late.

RB Javonte Williams: There’s not much of a gap between him and the top two RBs, if at all.

WR Kadarius Toney: All of the people I trust (including my eyes) say Elijah Moore > Toney.

WR Terrace Marshall: In the WR4 mix but injury history got flagged at the Combine re-check. I also thought he was a work in progress on tape, at least compared to Rashod Bateman.

WR Rondale Moore: The size, injury history, and aDOT concerns are real as much as we salivate over his athleticism and playmaking potential.

TE Pat Freiermuth: After Brevin Jordan’s pro day bust, he should be the consensus TE2. I love the coaching connection to the Jaguars early on Day 2.

OT/OG Sam Cosmi: Experience and plus athleticism made him a tough person to leave out.

OT/OG Liam Eichenberg: Likely a Day 2 starter without the Round 1 athleticism.

OT/OG Jalen Mayfield: A below-average pro day likely pushes him to guard and into Day 2.

OG/C Landon Dickerson: Easily can sneak in if his injury history gets cleared. Wild card prospect.

C Creed Humphrey: Experienced Power 5 athlete, but centers don’t often go Round 1 for whatever reason.

DT Levi Onwuzurike: A high-quality mover in a mediocre at best DT class.

EDGE Gregory Rousseau: A 2020 opt out with average athleticism isn’t a sure-fire Round 1 combo.

EDGE Jayson Oweh: 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, but a developmental project only. Zero sacks.

EDGE Carlos Basham: Eric Galko mentioned him as a potential surprise Day 1 pick, and Ben Fennell really liked him on one of latest podcasts.

EDGE Joseph Ossai: A crazy athlete (41.5 vert) from Texas with iffy the sack production.

CB Asante Samuel: NFL bloodlines with instincts, but size is a legitimate concern.

CB Eric Stokes: The better Georgia corner on tape also happens to have 4.29 speed.

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