Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
Scouting Reports. Comparisons. Model Projections.
My rookie process is two fold. First, I put all the players through my NFL Draft models to have an analytics anchor, and then I watch everyone to look for the context my models are missing and for the exact role each prospect fits in at the next level. As you’ll see below, my reports are purposefully short. If I can’t explain strengths and weaknesses of a prospect quickly, I’m doing something wrong. And if I have more to say, we have “The Underdog Football Show”!
Before we get to my rankings, here are UnderdogFantasy.com’s average draft positions (ADPs) for ongoing best ball drafts, including the $50,000 War Room Tournament ($10k to first):
Trevor Lawrence (QB14), Justin Fields (QB22), Zach Wilson (QB26), Trey Lance (QB30), and Mac Jones (QB32).
QB Rankings
Podcast Episode 1: Top Rookie QBs with ex-NFL QB J.T. O’Sullivan is here.
1. Trevor Lawrence (Draft Grade: 1st Overall Talent)
He’s the highest-floor quarterback prospect of the Zoomer generation and has the athleticism to run zone read, scramble for first downs, and throw on the run. Lawrence (6’6/216) rushed for 26 yards per game in college and figures to match those numbers in coach Urban Meyers’ offense that has featured a 600-yard rusher in 12-of-17 years (and the college ranks subtract the sack yards, too). As a passer, Lawrence has above-average zip and accuracy, though neither live up to his “generational” label as evidenced by his 9.4 YPA and 83rd percentile EPA. If there’s a true weakness in his game currently, it’s his inexperience throwing off five-step drops. Clemson ran a Mickey Mouse, RPO-heavy offense because they had clearly superior talent than their ACC competition. Ultimately, Lawrence should figure that aspect out, and perhaps really quickly. Annual pro bowl trips are expected once his feet are wet and an MVP wouldn’t come as a surprise. Comparison = Andrew Luck. My Model = 90th percentile.
2. Justin Fields (1st Overall Talent)
Unfairly nitpicked throughout his career, Fields (6’3/227) has lived up to his five-star hype by going 22–2 with the Buckeyes and leaving with an 89th percentile EPA. In addition to dodging turnovers (9 career INTS), he’s universally charted with elite accuracy and comes loaded with above-average arm strength. Fields can throw deep outs and seams better than most NFL quarterbacks already, and he’ll enter as a top-10 rusher after averaging 39.4 rushing yards per game in college. Critiques over his “slow processing” can partially be explained away by Ohio State’s vertical passing concepts and option routes, and Fields’ willingness to let his receivers make plays on the perimeter. With that said, Fields will need to make the same progression as Deshaun Watson did when it comes to knowing when to break out of the pocket instead of risking a sack. The 22-year-old has time to figure that out and thus has an MVP ceiling. Comparison = Deshaun Watson. My Model = 93rd percentile.
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3. Mac Jones (Early Round 1)
The streets don’t like his dad bod, aesthetic, and birth certificate name (“McCorkle”), but Jones (6’2/217) was an absolute assassin under coach Nick Saban and OC Steve Sarkisian. He set college football’s QBR record as a redshirt junior by completing 77% of his passes for 41 TDs and 4 INTs with an 11.2 YPA average. His three best traits are his elite accuracy, in-pocket footwork, and decision making, all three of which are the traits once considered to be most desirable. But now that more dynamic athletes are in the mix, Jones is being overlooked assuming his game translates beyond his 53% RPO + play action rate. In my opinion, it will. And in my opinion, it will happen at a higher level than the Jimmy Garoppolo, Kirk Cousins, Teddy Bridgewater tier that he’s often compared to. Those were all Day 2/3 prospects with less production and less pedigree than Mac Daddy. Comparison = Smaller, less agitated Philip Rivers. My Model = 94th percentile.
4. Zach Wilson (Early Round 1)
Based on last year’s tape and his pro day clinic, Wilson (6’2/214) is very easy to fall for, but his evaluation comes with more risk than let on. He was only a three-star recruit, had a 23/12 TD/INT ratio through his first two seasons, and finally had success in 2020 when he played against a 12th percentile strength of schedule behind an offensive line that allowed pressure on just 21% of his dropbacks per PFF (8th out of 140 QBs). That’s the definition of risk. Of course, Wilson comes with a franchise-altering ceiling because of his backyard-style arm and play-making ability. Those two traits led to an 11.0 YPA average last year and all the pre-draft hype. Whether he’s able to stay healthy at his size and whether he’s able to keep composure in NFL-tight pockets are unknowns, but he’s worth a dice roll early at the game’s most important position because of his natural passing ability. Comparison = Plus version of Ryan Fitzpatrick. My Model = 88th percentile.
5. Trey Lance (Early Round 1)
Lance (6’4/224) is such a good athlete that he had Power 5 offers to play linebacker, but he bet on himself as a quarterback at FCS powerhouse North Dakota State instead. He went undefeated (16–0), averaged 9.7 YPA, and didn’t have a turnover as a passer and added 1,110–14 on the ground in his lone full season. Despite being 19 years old then, Lance had control over line of scrimmage protection calls and by all accounts remains a high-intellect, hard-working person all around. The physical and mental traits are mouthwatering, but his entire projection is a mystery for two main reasons — accuracy and system. NDSU ran a friendly offense that asked him to pass the ball just 18 times per game, and they used play action on 38% of his passes, often with seven-man protections. Lance is a wild card projection when the pocket collapses, and he’s been sporadic with passing touch to all three levels, particularly throwing deep (38% completion percentage on 20+ yard attempts). If those get corrected, Lance will go to the moon. Comparison = Josh Allen to Jalen Hurts. My Model = NA (Non-FBS).
6. Kellen Mond (Round 3)
Mond (6’3/211) is an SEC experienced, three-year starter who will still be 21 years old on draft night. Because he’s so lengthy, Mond’s accuracy can be hit and miss, particularly when attempting to throw with touch, but his decision making was clean against aggressive, often complicated SEC defenses. Mond only threw three interceptions last year and is poised enough to throw check downs when necessary. His lackluster accuracy and timid presence limit his overall ceiling, but he has the athleticism (4.64 forty) to create with his legs (35 rushing yards per game) and the experience to be a viable spot-start option and potential bridge quarterback. Comparison = Colin Kaepernick. My Model = 66th percentile.
Round 4–7 Grades
7. Kyle Trask: Productive (89th percentile EPA) against an SEC schedule, but elite weaponry hid his sloppy footwork and poor mobility. My Model = 76th percentile.
8. Davis Mills: In-pocket five-star traits, but inexperienced with shaky mechanics stemming from an ACL injury. My Model = 47th percentile.
9. Sam Ehlinger: Athletic and experienced Power 5 starter, but lacks NFL arm talent. My Model = 17th percentile.
10. Jamie Newman: Dual-threat with suspect accuracy and few games started. My Model = 34th percentile.