Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
Scouting Reports. Comparisons. Model Projections.
My rookie process is two fold. First, I put all the players through my NFL Draft models to have an analytics anchor, and then I watch everyone to look for the context my models are missing and for the exact role each prospect fits in at the next level. As you’ll see below, my reports are purposefully short. If I can’t explain strengths and weaknesses of a prospect quickly, I’m doing something wrong. And if I have more to say, we have “The Underdog Football Show”!
Before we get to my rankings, here are UnderdogFantasy.com’s average draft positions (ADPs) for ongoing best ball drafts, including the $50k War Room Tournament ($10k to first):
Najee Harris (RB19), Travis Etienne (RB21), Javonte Williams (RB24), Kenneth Gainwell (RB36), Chuba Hubbard (RB41), Trey Sermon (RB43), Michael Carter (RB46), Kylin Hill (RB57), Khalil Herbert (RB64), Elijah Mitchell (RB67), etc.
RB Rankings
Podcast Episode 2: Top Rookie RBs with PFF’s Mike Renner is here.
1. Najee Harris (Draft Grade: Round 2)
Harris (6’1/232) is the high-floor bellcow back of the class. He lived up to his five-star billing as a four-year contributor under coach Nick Saban, ultimately balling out as a junior (1,224 yards) and senior (1,466 yards). Harris unfortunately isn’t the explosive athlete and power runner of a Derrick Henry type. Instead, he’s a more nimble between-the-tackles gap runner with better hands (43–425–4 receiving line last year) than almost all power runners. If there’s a player to make an exception for as a 23-year-old non-early declare, Harris is it. Just don’t expect an All Pro ceiling. Comparison = Steven Jackson. My Model = 91st percentile.
2. Travis Etienne (Round 2–3)
Etienne (5’10/215) is a productive, flashy track runner who developed a third-down role at Clemson. He admitted to discomfort as a receiver in his sophomore season but caught 37 and 48 passes during his junior and senior campaigns, most of which were check-downs instead of Christian McCaffrey-level routes. The question with his NFL projection is at which weight he wants to play at — the heavier pro day weight or the lighter college weight. Hopefully it’s the latter because his rushing strengths are mostly speed based (career 7.2 YPC with 85 rushes of at least 15 yards) rather than being a patient, vision based rusher. To maximize his 4.4 speed, Etienne needs to land in a Shanahan-style outside zone system where he can make one cut and burst upfield. An Alvin Kamara workload (200 attempts with 50+ receptions) would also help his NFL trajectory. Comparison = Kenyan Drake. My Model = 94th percentile.
3. Javonte Williams (Round 2–3)
Despite being a high school valedictorian, Williams (5’10/212) is an aggressive power back who set PFF’s missed tackles forced per carry record (0.48) last year. He keeps his pad level low and has high-end contact balance that allows him to bounce off defensive backs. Williams can run in a gap or inside zone scheme but won’t flash off the perimeter given his 54th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (0.48). At North Carolina, he rushed for 19 touchdowns while splitting time with third-down Michael Carter. Whether the 21-year-old early declare develops better hands (25 receptions) or not will determine his NFL and fantasy ceiling. I’m betting on that happening at a reasonable level. Comparison = Chris Carson. My Model = 93rd percentile.
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4. Trey Sermon (Round 2–3)
Sermon (6’0/215) is a high-pedigree, four-star prospect with an inconsistent, although efficient, production profile. He averaged 6.1 YPC across three seasons as a Sooner before fully breaking out late in his final season at Ohio. Thanks to a wicked jump cut and above average vision, Sermon tallied 29–331–2 and 31–193–1 rushing lines in must-win ballgames and looked like a top-50 overall prospect, but those were two of his three games with 20-plus carries. His 73rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.59 forty and 84th percentile three cone) and yards after contact per carry numbers (11th out of 95 RBs last year) suggest there’s a ceiling to chase in a class that lacks potential bellcow runners. Hopefully his 1.1 receptions per game average can be improved. I’m bullish it can. Comparison = Melvin Gordon. My Model = 65th percentile.
5. Michael Carter (Round 3)
Carter (5’8/201) is a productive, Power 5 pass-catching running back with forgettable size and explosion (4.50 forty and 34-inch vert) but quality instincts, vision, and agility in both phases. He’s as comfortable as prospects get in passing situations (82 career receptions) with NFL-ready elusiveness in open space, and Carter has great timing while rushing between the tackles. Unfortunately, Carter’s size has prevented him from reaching more than 200 touches in a season during college and has given him mixed success in pass protection. The 22-year-old non-early declare is unlikely to change these negatives, leaving him with a capped ceiling and pigeon-holed role. His 30th percentile speed score (4.50 forty) isn’t helping either. Comparison = Duke Johnson. My Model = 65th percentile.
Round 4–7
6. Kenneth Gainwell: 20% of Gainwell’s 2019 snaps came at receiver or wild cat so a third-down role in the NFL is expected (51 receptions in 2019), but his early-down projection is murky because of his size (5’8/201) and athleticism. He had an 11th percentile three cone and 47th percentile vertical despite having 16th percentile weight, which backed up my tape evaluation (see below) and PFF’s yards after contact metric (3.5 compared to Darrell Henderson’s 6.1). His rushing production was inflated by Memphis running back friendly scheme, and he was by far the least efficient in the backfield according to career YPC: Antonio Gibson (11.2), Darrell Henderson (8.2), Tony Pollard (7.1), Gainwell (6.6). My Model = 71st percentile.
7. Chuba Hubbard: The track star rushed for 2,084 yards and 21 touchdowns in 2019, but those 328 carries bit him as a junior and arguably during his pro day (4.50 forty). He’s not physical enough to be a tackle breaker in the league and needs to develop his passing skills (53 career receptions) to earn a committee role. Hubbard is a big play threat in an outside zone scheme only for now, but his early-career college profile suggests there’s some upside with development. My Model = 51st percentile.
8. Khalil Herbert: Wasted in Kansas, Herbert (5’9/210) broke out as a redshirt senior at Virginia Tech to the tune of the fifth-best yards after contact per carry (4.74) among 2020 RBs per PFF. His stocky frame and adequate athleticism (4.49 forty) should translate into committee work on early downs. My Model = 28th percentile.
9. Kylin Hill : Hill (5’10/214) butted heads with Air Raid coach Mike Leach (suspended followed by a mid-season opt out), but he was a second-team All-SEC rusher and consensus Day 2 prospect the year prior. He has three-down upside if his character checks out and if his physical playing style hasn’t already zapped his burst and athleticism (39th Adjusted SPARQ with a 4.57 forty). My Model = 46th percentile.
10. Elijah Mitchell: The Ragin’ Cajun was rarely used in the passing game (49 career receptions and 100 pass-blocking reps) but was an explosive (4.38 forty) rusher in Louisiana’s zone scheme as evidenced by his 6.2 YPC average. Unfortunately, he’s just 5’10/202 and maxes out as a low-volume committee back, likely on early downs. My Model = 30th percentile.
11. Jermar Jefferson: The former Pac-12 Freshman of the Year averaged 108 rushing yards per game over his career by showcasing high-end vision, but Jefferson (5’10/206) isn’t explosive enough (10th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) to be a locked-in starter given his lingering injury history. He’s a quality backup with experience in an under center offense. Most backs in this class don’t have that. My Model = 44th percentile.
12. Javian Hawkins: It’s very unlikely to actually translate because of size (5’8/183), but Hawkins had top-five enjoyable college tape because of his in-space athleticism (4.45 forty) and willingness to throw his petite body around in pass protection and between the tackles. The 21-year-old early declare screams NFL overachiever even if he’s a low-volume backup (or perhaps a slot receiver like he was in high school). Hawkins, nicknamed “PlayStation”, somehow averaged 117 rushing yards per game at Louisville. My Model = 20th percentile.
13. Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson had better tape and 2020 production (146 total yards per game) than this ranking, but he’s a 23-year-old former JUCO transfer with a history of poor grades and a suspension. His 16th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.64 forty) isn’t worth the gamble from afar despite having more foot control and softer hands (28 receptions) than most 231-pound backs. My Model = 58th percentile.
14. Chris Evans: His best season at Michigan featured a 135–685–6 rushing line, but Evans (5’11/211) certainly looked the part on tape in spurts with plus-level elusiveness and he backed that up with 96th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (40.5-inch vert) at his pro day. The former four-star will be 24 years old during his rookie season if a team takes a swing on his theoretical upside late in the draft. My Model = 15th percentile.
15. Kene Nwangwu: Like Chris Evans, Nwangwu (6’0/201) is a total projection with 98th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.31 forty) and kick-return experience. After setting the Cyclones’ kickoff return record and graduating with a mechanical engineering degree, Nwangwu should hang around NFL active rosters with a chance to develop as an actual running back. Unfortunately, he is 23 years old and only has 150 offensive touches because of David Montgomery’s and Breece Hall’s presences. My Model = 14th percentile.
16. Deon Jackson: He may not even get drafted, but Jackson (5’11/218) was a productive (161–847–7 with 26 receptions) committee back when Daniel Jones was at Duke, has kick-returning experience, and quietly had a 90th percentile weight-adjusted forty (4.40) at his pro day. If he can stop fumbling, Jackson has some deep, deep sleeper appeal. My Model = 1st percentile.
