Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
Scouting Reports. Comparisons. Model Projections.
My rookie process is two fold. First, I put all the players through my NFL Draft models to have an analytics anchor, and then I watch everyone to look for the context my models are missing and for the exact role each prospect fits in at the next level. As you’ll see below, my reports are purposefully short. If I can’t explain strengths and weaknesses of a prospect quickly, I’m doing something wrong. And if I have more to say, we have “The Underdog Football Show”!
Before we get to my rankings, here are UnderdogFantasy.com’s average draft positions (ADPs) for ongoing best ball drafts, including the $50k War Room Tournament ($10k to first):
Ja’Marr Chase (WR28), DeVonta Smith (WR45), Jaylen Waddle (WR48), Rashod Bateman (WR53), Terrace Marshall (WR60), Rondale Moore (WR64), Kadarius Toney (WR78), Tylan Wallace (WR89), Nico Collins (WR95), Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR98), Seth Williams (WR100), etc.
WR Rankings
Podcast Episode 3: Top Rookie WRs with Matt Waldman is here.
1. Ja’Marr Chase (Draft Grade: Mid Round 1)
Chase (6’0/201) is the best X receiver in the class. He had 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns as a 19-year-old against an SEC schedule, and only 6% of his receptions came on screens. He wins on the boundary with an extremely physical game that consists of many contested catches. For someone with a 21.1 yards per reception average, Chase didn’t create much separation in 2019, but he’s just turning 21 years old now and did surprise with 89th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.34 forty) at his pro day. Those separation skills can be developed, and he’s already a high-level receiver when it comes to body control and playing through contact. Comparison = Smaller Dez Bryant. My Model = 99th percentile.
2. Devonta Smith (Mid Round 1)
Smith (6’0/170) is an expert with his releases, attacking cornerbacks’ leverage, tracking the ball, and catching the ball away from his body. He’s a highly intelligent player with toughness way beyond his small frame, and he rarely was banged up in college. Occasionally he’ll get pushed towards the boundary because of his size, but he made as many contested catches as anyone in the class and can be given cleaner releases at Z or in the slot if size becomes a bigger problem at the next level. His 34.4 PPR points per game from last year were the most in my database of drafted FBS receivers, and he got there by beating Jaycee Horn and other press-man SEC corners. If I’m betting on outliers, I want Nick Saban’s stamp of approval, and I got that here. Comparison = Justin Jefferson. My Model = 99th percentile.
3. Jaylen Waddle (Mid Round 1)
Waddle (5’10/180) is a rare playmaker out of the slot who plays with more physicality than his size would indicate and more route running savvy than his sub-4.40 forty time suggests. His start-stop ability is unparalleled, and he glides in the open field on crossers, after catching a slant, on vertical routes from inside, and as a returner. His 4.38 yards per route run was similar to Devonta Smith’s in a small sample last year, and he’s arguably more advanced than 2020 №12 overall pick Henry Ruggs. Waddle’s floor is as a schemed-touch slot weapon who dictates opposing coverage on every pass play, and his ceiling is Tyreek Hill. Comparison = Physical T.Y. Hilton. My Model = 92nd percentile.
4. Rashod Bateman (Late Round 1)
Bateman (6’0/190) is a nuanced X receiver developed under receiver guru coach P.J. Fleck. He had 97th percentile adjusted production at Minnesota, and he did it out wide early in his career and from the slot last year. Bateman is lengthy and plays with physicality, but his best trait is his route running and polish against zone coverage. The 21-year-old early-declare surprised with 4.39 speed at his pro day despite struggling with COVID-19 symptoms months prior. Although not flashy, Bateman is a high-floor player with a 150-target ceiling. He’ll be trusted by rhythm passers. Comparison = Keenan Allen. My Model = 91st percentile.
5. Elijah Moore (Late Round 1)
Moore (5’9/185) was a highly-productive slot and backfield player for coach Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss. His 32.5 PPR points per game translated to 99th percentile adjusted production and represents just how effective he is at making people miss with the ball in his hands. He has 90th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, featuring a 4.35 forty, a 6.66 three cone, and a 36-inch vert. The 21-year-old early declare may not be physical enough to win as an outside receiver, but he’s a versatile player with experience in the screen game, on jet sweeps, and even at running back. Moore is, at worst, a fun gadget player, but I think more can be expected with time given his age and athleticism. Comparison = Tyler Lockett. My Model = 94th percentile.
6. Rondale Moore (Round 2)
Moore (5’9/180) is a boom-bust slot receiver and gadget player with 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.29 forty, 42.5-inch vert, and 6.68 three cone). His true freshman season at Purdue was special, tallying 1,471 yards and 14 touchdowns against the fifth-toughest strength of schedule. He’s missed multiple games since because of a hamstring injury, but Moore told reporters that was bad luck and the NFL isn’t concerned with his body. A freak athlete and hard-worker, Moore could develop into an intermediate and downfield target, but only 24 of his receptions traveled more than 10 air yards in college and 43% of his catches in 2020 came on screens. Anything other than slot and backfield targets is a projection. Comparison = Thicc Tavon. My Model = 88th percentile.
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7. Terrace Marshall (Round 2)
Marshall (6’3/200) is a former five-star and 20.9-year-old early declare out of LSU. He played on the outside in 2019 before playing 73% of his snaps inside last year. His long arms allow him to pluck balls out of the air, and his 4.38 forty and 39-inch vert give him yards after the catch ability. He has 92nd percentile production (104 yards per game), and only 10% of his receptions came on screens. The ceiling is tantalizing, but he isn’t as polished, particularly with his footwork at the top of routes, as his analytical profile suggests. Up until now, he wins like a power forward collecting a rebound. Comparison = Devante Parker. My Model = 88th percentile.
8. Dyami Brown (Round 2)
Brown (6’1/189) is a deep threat outside receiver who only ran four primary routes (verticals, curls, slants, and outs) in OC Phil Longo’s suspect system that didn’t give Brown a single screen in 2020. His projection beyond winning deep takes imagination, but Brown shows nuance in his releases and often works in the corner’s shadows. The 21-year-old early declare had 1,000 yards in two-straight seasons, ultimately checking in with 92nd percentile production. Brown’s 65th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.46 forty, 128-inch broad) rounds out his high-floor, high-ceiling profile. If he can clean up his downfield drops or if he can add an intermediate part to his game, Brown has under-appreciated value on Day 2. Comparison = Jeremy Maclin. My Model = 83rd percentile.
9. Kadarius Toney (Round 2-3)
Toney (5’11/193) is an explosive, boom-bust gadget receiver out of the slot. Despite having 4.37 speed and a 39.5-inch vert, Toney didn’t have an every-down role in Florida’s offense until his senior season when he had 1,145 total yards and 11 touchdowns. Most of his production was schemed by coach Dan Mullen (27% of his receptions came on screens), too, likely because he’s a freestylist route runner who still needs development. The 22-year-old has Day 1 playmaking ability, but any timing-based offensive coordinator or any timing-based quarterback will be frustrated by Toney’s lack of refinement. If that gets cleaned up (and that’s a big if), the Gator has top-five slot receiver upside. Comparison = A- Mecole Hardman. My Model = 83rd percentile.
10. Amari Rodgers (Round 3)
Rodgers (5’9/212) is an experienced, reliable slot target out of Clemson with 86th percentile production. After waiting behind Hunter Renfrow, Tee Higgins, and Justyn Ross, Rodgers put up a 77–1,020–7 receiving line as a senior with Trevor Lawrence. He wins with a stocky frame and NFL-ready knowledge of the position, but he’s a 24th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete (4.51 forty) with a particularly forgettable 33-inch vertical and 1.65-second 10-yard split. Unlike winning on the perimeter, slot receivers don’t need burst to succeed in the NFL, leaving outs for Rodgers to become a multi-year starter on the inside. Comparison = Third Round Deebo Samuel. My Model = 70th percentile.
11. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Round 3)
St. Brown (5’11/197) is a physical receiver, likely in the slot, with three years of production at USC. He’s built like the son of a two-time Mr. Universe body-building champion because he is, but he also has the flexibility of a young athlete whose dad preached to him that stretching isn’t needed. Because of his hit-and-miss athletic profile (4.59 forty, 38.5-inch vertical), St. Brown will likely have to go back inside after spending 2020 as the Trojans’ X receiver. He’ll offer more seam stretching skills than most slot prospects, however, and does have the production profile (74th percentile) of a quality Day 2 prospect. Comparison = Slower Golden Tate. My Model = 64th percentile.
12. Tylan Wallace (Round 3)
Wallace (5’11/204) is a vertical threat who was more explosive and productive prior to his ACL tear at Oklahoma State. He had a 86–1,491–12 receiving line as a true sophomore but slightly regressed the following seasons, ultimately entering the league with 72nd percentile production. He didn’t look confident or as explosive as a senior, which carried over to his bottom 4th percentile Adjusted SPARQ pro day (4.48 forty, 33-inch vert at just 194 pounds). If his medicals check out, Wallace has a chance to be a №2 receiver and field stretcher with nice ball-tracking skills. We just can’t tell how his knee is doing from afar. Comparison = Tre’Quan Smith. My Model = 59th percentile.
13. Nico Collins (Round 3)
Collins (6’4/215) is a strength, size, speed outside receiver out of Michigan. He only averaged 61 yards per game (49th percentile production) in 2019 before choosing to opt out last year to avoid an injury. Collins wins with a power forward box out, primarily on vertical routes (19.7 YPR). His game underneath may never take off because he can get stuck at the top of his routes, but he flashed high-end blocking ability and can serve as a role player despite a lack of nuance in other areas. He’s a 66th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete (4.45 forty, 37.5-inch vert). Comparison = Riley Cooper. My Model = 56th percentile.
ROUND 4–7
14. D’Wayne Eskridge: Eskridge (5’9/190) is an undersized track star turned outside receiver who also earned MAC Special Teams Player of the Year as an electric returner. He has 83rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.39 forty) with high school state championship trophies in 100-meter and long jump. After playing some corner at Western Michigan, Eskridge averaged 128 yards per game largely because of his deadly skinny post and yards after the catch ability (23 YPR). His 98th percentile yards per team pass attempt somewhat offsets his major red flag: age. Eskridge will be 24.1 years old on draft night. My Model = 58th percentile.
15. Josh Palmer: The 21.6-year-old never had a 500-yard season at Tennessee but flashed downfield as a physical Z receiver with high-point ability and quality hands. His 50th percentile athleticism (4.51 forty at 6’1/210) gives him a shot as backup with startable traits. My Model = 41st percentile.
16. Tutu Atwell: A slot receiver only at Louisville, Atwell (5’9/165) arguably is too small for an NFL starting role even with expected development as a 21.5-year-old early declare. His 76th percentile production came on jet sweeps, screens, and on vertical routes from the slot against off coverage, so beating press coverage will be a massive challenge at the next level. His 4.35 speed should come in handy on special teams and as a schemed-touch role player on offense. My Model = 60th percentile.
17. Seth Williams: Williams (6’3/210) is a physical, contested-catch outside receiver who likely lacks the burst (4.59 forty, 1.63 10-yard split) to create separation against more athletic press corners in the NFL. His 69 yards per game as a true junior are nothing more than nice. My Model = 56th percentile.
18. Anthony Schwartz: A 20.6-year-old early-declare, Schwartz (6/0/186) is kick returner and SEC sprinter (4.26 forty) at Auburn who dabbled at playing receiver. He averaged 64 yards as a true junior, but most of his production came on screens, jet sweeps, and after the catch. He’s a special teamer and low snap snap count gadget player out of the slot or at flanker until he improves his physicality and route refinement. My Model = 51st percentile.
19. Tamorrion Terry: Terry (6’3/206) is a 23-year-old lengthy outside receiver with far more long speed (4.44 forty) than strength. He can be had at the line of scrimmage and at the top of routes by physical corners. His 91 yards per game as a redshirt junior, and his ability to take the top off and win jump balls leave him paths to some upside on Day 3. My Model = 30th percentile.
20. Dax Milne: Zach Wilson’s leading receiver in 2020, Milne (6’1/193) declared early after a 95th percentile adjusted production season at BYU. He’s a fluid player with a crafty, often upright, route running style with rock-solid hands and ball-tracking ability. Possibly too small and slow (4.59 forty) to win on the perimeter, Milne may transition into the slot where his 6th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism can be more easily hidden. My Model = 47th percentile.
21. Shi Smith: A four-year starting slot receiver, Smith (5’10/186) never broke 700 yards in a season at South Carolina and was rarely targeted down field. His 56th percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.43 forty) translates to his short-area burst on yards after the catch on shallow routes. My Model = 36th percentile.
22. Simi Fehoko: Following a mission trip, Fehoke (6’3/222) enrolled at Stanford where he averaged 76 yards per game as an inside-out receiver. He wastes a lot of steps as a raw route runner, but he has 4.44 speed with plenty of short-area burst for a big receiver. The 23.6-year-old is less polished for someone his age. My Model = 22nd percentile.
23. Cornell Powell: Stuck behind a stacked receiver room at Clemson, Powell (6’1/204) only started as a redshirt senior when he posted 882 yards and seven touchdowns primarily on the perimeter. He is physical in all phases, tracks the ball well, and has reasonable speed (4.52 forty) for a stockier prospect, but his age (23.5) suggests he’s maxed out as a player. My Model = 19th percentile.
24. Ihmir Smith-Marsette: The 21.7-year-old was a constant separator at Iowa, but his best collegiate season only topped 622 yards and five touchdowns. A DUI and ankle injury caused by flipping into the end zone are reasons why scouts are worried about his maturity per Dane Brugler. Smith-Marsette’s 43rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism leaves his ceiling capped on special teams. My Model = 44th percentile.
25. Jaelon Darden: Darden (5’8/174) is an analytics darling after a 74–1,190–19 receiving line at North Texas (99th percentile college dominator), but his small catch radius, problems with physicality, and limited route tree (verticals, deep crossers, quick outs) make his NFL projection muddy. Winning a job on special teams may be his easiest path to an NFL roster. His biggest strength is his ball tracking on verticals (4.44 forty) from the slot (84% snap rate). My Model = 50th percentile.
26. Marquez Stevenson: He’s an undersized (5’10/182) slot receiver with small hands (8.5 inches) and 21st percentile adjusted production. Stevenson does have the classic wiggle (6.76 three cone) and speed (4.45 forty) of an inside player and core special teamer, but he needs to be stronger to compete for a starting job and he’s already 23 years old. My Model = 29th percentile.
27. Mike Strachan: A 23.7-year-old outside receiver from FCS Charleston, Strachan (6’5/226) has 73rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism with two 1,000-yard seasons on his resume. He didn’t play in 2020 due to the pandemic. My Model = NA (non-FBS).
28. Jalen Camp: The Yellow Jacket had bottom 1st percentile adjusted production in a run-heavy offense, but Camp (6’2/226) is physical af, tracks the ball well, and has 70th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.45 forty, 39.5-inch vert). There’s enough to work with here to call Camp a deep, deep sleeper on the perimeter as a contested catch player. My Model = 3rd percentile.
29. Jonathan Adams Jr.: The Arkansas State outside receiver is a contested catch receiver without the top speed (4.54 forty) to be a separator in the NFL, but Adams (6’2/201) was extremely productive (111 yards per game) and has the jump ball ability to be a potential backup outside receiver with a red zone presence. My Model = 30th percentile.
30. Trevon Grimes: The №3 receiver at Florida in 2020, Grimes (6’4/220) is a contested catch receiver whose 26th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.49 forty, 35-inch vert) leaves him without much separation ability. He needs to play with more physicality to press for a №3 job in the NFL. My Model = 22nd percentile.
31. Cade Johnson: A 23-year-old slot receiver from South Dakota State, Johnson (5’11/194) has the production (two seasons of 1,110 yards) to qualify as a sleeper but has subpar athleticism (4.51 forty) for an undersized player. The transition from FCS to the NFL will be a challenge, especially after not playing in 2020. My Model = NA (non-FBS).
32. Dez Fitzpatrick: Fitzpatrick (6’2/208) is a lengthy, deep threat on the perimeter with some slot experience. He averaged 19.3 yards per reception as a senior, but only caught 3.9 passes per game, will be 23.4 years old on draft night, and has 31st percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism. My Model = 4th percentile.
33. Warren Jackson: He’s the biggest receiver in the class (6’6/220) and had 1,119 receiving yards as a true junior at Colorado State. Jackson just doesn’t have the speed (4.72 forty) or agility (7.71 three cone) to threaten outside corners deep. He’s a jump ball player only. My Model = 39th percentile.
34. Marlon Williams: He averaged 110 receiving yards per game (96th percentile production) at Central Florida as a senior. Williams (5’11/208) is a stocky slot receiver who can do the dirty work in a run-first offense and break arm tackles in traffic, but his 1st percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.63 forty) limits his ceiling on offense and special teams. My Model = 45th percentile.
35. Jhamon Ausbon: His 75th percentile production at Texas A&M isn’t as exciting after seeing his 9th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.72 forty). My Model = 26th percentile.
36. Sage Surratt: Betting on 23-year-old redshirt junior with 10th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (4.70 forty) isn’t something I’m doing. My Model = 24th percentile.
37. Dazz Newsome: The North Carolina slot receiver is on the non-NFL caliber athlete list (1st percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism). My Model = 10th percentile.
