Hayden’s Final 2021 NFL Mock Draft
32 picks and prospect fits.
Here’s a doc filled with the reporter quotes I reference throughout this post.
1. Jaguars — Clemson QB1 Trevor Lawrence
Not a surprise, but he’s my QB1 in this class.
2. Jets — BYU QB2 Zach Wilson
A one-year wonder against a weak Independent schedule (12th percentile among drafted QBs), Wilson’s transition may be difficult early with his pockets shrunk in half and with those 50/50 balls harder to complete against NFL defensive backs. His arm talent and competitiveness leave him outs to succeeding despite his boom-bust profile.
3. 49ers — Alabama QB3 Mac Jones
This is a predictive mock, not what you or I would do. Very few credible predictions suggest this won’t be Jones with almost zero saying Justin Fields. Jones isn’t as bad of an athlete as some make him out to be, and I understand why Kyle Shanahan would value Jones’ pre-snap knowledge and accuracy. I wrote about it all in detail here:
4. Falcons — Florida TE1 Kyle Pitts
All options make sense, but new coach Arthur Smith likely didn’t take the job without believing in the offensive core of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. Adding a potential Hall of Fame tight end will hide some of Ryan’s 36-year-old limitations, and Smith’s background is coaching tight ends. As for a trade down, the quarterback-needy teams picking later may find a cheaper trade with the Lions (7) or Panthers (8) worth the risk of potentially losing their guy, so Atlanta’s phone may not ring as often as we’ve been told.
5. Bengals — LSU WR1 Ja’Marr Chase
Bengals reporter Joe Goodberry believed that this was the direction the front office was headed towards when he came on The Underdog Football Show last week, and I was already leaning that way. Cincy’s true offensive line needs are at right guard and center, not offensive tackle. And Bengals GM Duke Tobin mentioned that the offensive line depth is good in this class: “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on … We think having healthy guys there and then the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and (there will) still be additions to be named later.” I agree.
6. Dolphins — Oregon OT1 Penei Sewell
Did the Dolphins really move up from 12th to 6th overall to draft one of the Alabama receivers knowing all of the QBs, Chase, Pitts, and others were going to be drafted ahead of them? I’m not fully sold, especially after the Ereck Flowers trade on Tuesday and with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reporting that they want to move Hunt to guard (where he was listed at going into last year’s draft). Tua Tagovailoa would have two starting first-round tackles on rookie contracts in this scenario with four other top-100 picks in the stockpile. And I have a plan on how to use them…
7. Lions — North Dakota State QB4 Trey Lance
I’m not confident in this projection — I wanted to mock them a trade down — but Lance is the quarterback prospect most likely to bite kneecaps. He was recruited as a Power 5 linebacker before crushing the FCS level at quarterback, and he’s a physical runner who also checks every off-field box. Lance still fits the Lions’ long-term rebuild plans with Jared Goff available to start all 2021 games.
8. Patriots (via CAR) — Ohio State QB5 Justin Fields
I’m not sold that the Patriots would even have to trade up to land Fields, who is unfortunately a slide candidate on Thursday. ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes there’s an 80–95% chance that he’s available at pick seven or eight, a statement that adds to the rumors of the last month or so suggesting Twitter likes Fields more than the NFL does. In fact, this seems on the high end of Fields’ range of outcomes. With that said, New England is a perfect landing spot for the dual-threat prospect with the offense already designed for Cam Newton, Fields’ long-time mentor. A rookie QB contract would allow Bill Belichick to continue spending in free agency.
9. Dolphins (via DEN) — Alabama WR2 Jaylen Waddle
Many sharp analysts are mocking Waddle to the Dolphins at sixth, and I nearly did that myself. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on this smart front office drafting a slot receiver over a left tackle. The good news is that Miami has two firsts, two seconds, and a third-rounder this draft. If they are all in on Waddle as many reports suggest, they can trade up and get him. They’ll just need to get ahead of the Giants and Eagles to make it happen. Luckily the Broncos are trade down candidates.
10. Cowboys — South Carolina CB1 Jaycee Horn
Everyone is expecting a corner to come off the board here, but it’s not a lock that Patrick Surtain goes ahead of Horn, who is more athletic and more aggressive. While not as polished, Horn provides the physicality of a Cover 3 corner, which he’d be playing in Dallas under Dan Quinn. This is also a hedge on Surtain going ahead of 10th overall.
11. Giants — Michigan EDGE1 Kwity Paye
In a class full of mysteries, Paye provides some semblance of a floor at edge rusher. He’s an elite athlete with positive off-field character and medicals. For these reasons (and because ESPN’s Jordan Raanan listed him ahead of Jaelan Phillips on his most likely list), I lean Paye over Phillips as the first defensive end off the board.
12. Eagles — Alabama CB2 Patrick Surtain
I also loved Benjamin Solak’s point on his Bleeding Green podcast about how the Eagles have only been picking players with 60th percentile scores in the forty, vertical, and broad. Athleticism is a priority, and Surtain is a 93rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete. He fills a major hole as the CB2 next to Darius Slay, whomst he’d replace long-term. This would be a light’s out pick, especially with Surtain’s experience in a Cover 2/4/7 system like the one DC Jonathan Gannon is bringing from Indianapolis and Minnesota.
13. Chargers — Northwestern OT2 Rashawn Slater
Both SI’s Albert Breer and NBC’s Peter King also mocked this connection, and it couldn’t make more sense. Slater has positional versatility for an offensive line that can use an upgrade at left tackle and one of the guard spots, plus he’s considered a high-character person off-field. I’ve been around GM Tom Telesco plenty, and the latter is very important to him. Getting Justin Herbert’s blindside cleaned up this draft is an absolute must.
14. Vikings — USC OG1 Alijah Vera-Tucker
Vera-Tucker’s versatility and athleticism fits the Minnesota zone-rushing offense. The Athletic’s Arif Haasan notes that the Trojan passes all of the Vikings’ athletic testing. This scenario would mean former second-rounder Ezra Cleveland would move to left tackle, the position he played at Boise State.
15. Panthers (via NE) — Virginia Tech OT3 Christian Darrisaw
Groomed by the trade-down Seahawks, Fitterer stays flexible for the 2022 offseason when Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and/or Deshaun Watson could be available. Between not trading up to third overall and trading for Sam Darnold, I’d be somewhat surprised to see the Panthers stay at 8 and draft a quarterback. Trading with New England checks every criteria, and Darrisaw immediately becomes their highest-upside offensive lineman and starting left tackle. It’s worth noting that Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said arm length is “important for offensive linemen” and “it is a factor that we look at.” Darrisaw smashes thresholds with 34.25-inch arms.
16. Cardinals — Alabama WR3 DeVonta Smith
Arizona arguably doesn’t have the draft capital (only two picks inside the top-159 for a trade up), but Smith going in the teens is now expected after learning that his size is actually being held against him in NFL circles. In Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense, Smith’s petite frame can easily be hidden in the slot or against lower-level corners in four-receiver sets. DeAndre Hopkins can occupy opposing CB1s, leaving Smith to feast using his mind, length and toughness. This is a luxury pick, but the top two corners are already off the board.
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17. Raiders — Penn State LB1 Micah Parsons
Classic Raiders. Parsons’ athleticism is off the charts, but he’s likely off some draft boards for his off-field history. The Raiders have been willing to take on risk before, and Parsons is arguably one of the only blue-chip prospects remaining. All of their moves this offseason indicate that Jon Gruden is over getting zero stops on defense. Parsons would help.
18. Broncos (via MIA) — Tulsa LB2 Zaven Collins
The Teddy Bridgewater trade lowers their odds of selecting a quarterback, and I had all five off the board before they were on the clock at 9 here. Instead of forcing a pick, they trade back and land a classic Vic Fangio inside linebacker. He’s a 260-pounder with decent coverage skills. He’d sit right in the middle of Denver’s Cover 2 base defense.
19. Football Team — Kentucky LB3 Jamin Davis
Washington trading for Ereck Flowers makes an OT or OG less of a priority and pushes up positions like linebacker to the top. Ben Standig not only covers Washington for The Athletic, but he’s also been an elite mock drafter for years. When he makes a prediction about the Football Team, I’m tailing. Davis has the size, speed, and college production of a first-round linebacker. He’s just less hyped because he’s a one-year wonder. As a side note, I liked o4.5 LBs if you can catch that at plus odds. It’s a “safe” position with four off-ball linebackers and Azeez Ojulari headlining this year’s class.
20. Bears — Ole Miss WR4 Elijah Moore
Chicago is a trade up candidate, but that’d require ownership approval and I’m not convinced GM Ryan Pace can mortgage the future while on the hot seat. The next best thing for him and coach Matt Nagy would be getting Andy Dalton another weapon, particularly with Allen Robinson on the franchise tag and Anthony Miller on the trade block. Moore would be an electric slot option underneath while Darnell Mooney operates downfield from the outside.
21. Colts — Miami EDGE2 Jaelan Phillips
Phillips has top-10 talent and athleticism, but his medical and off-field history makes him a wild card in this draft. Anything as high as pick 8 wouldn’t surprise me. A fall wouldn’t surprise me either. Here, I split the difference. Phillips has the upside to transcend this already serviceable defense. They’d look for a starting left tackle on Day 2 in this situation.
22. Titans — Minnesota WR5 Rashod Bateman
This one makes a lot of sense to me. Bateman is an excellent route runner with inside/out experience. He’d be a great Corey Davis replacement and has shown the blocking skills required in this balanced offense. The front office has to do something about the 47.9% available targets.
23. Jets — Clemson RB1 Travis Etienne
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocked this earlier, and his close friend happens to be the GM of the Jets. Schematically, the pairing is ideal. Etienne’s burst will be maximized in LaFleur’s outside zone rushing scheme, and the Jets are bereft of running back talent on the roster. While I wouldn’t bet on him being the first running back selected like I have him mocked here, I’m not ruling a trade back up into the back half of Round 1 for him.
24. Steelers — Alabama RB2 Najee Harris
The offensive line needs a lot of work, but I can totally see the front office wanting to take the air out of the ball after Ben Roethlisberger’s 2020 season. For right or wrong, Harris’ bellcow projection would do just that. As you can see, there’s so much smoke here that it’s hard not to buy it to some degree.
25. Jaguars — Penn State EDGE3 Jayson Oweh
The Jaguars need to build for the long-term, and Oweh fits that timeline as a pass-rusher with zero (0) sacks. His 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism leaves him with a high ceiling if Urban Meyer, who recruited Oweh in college, can groom him. If the goal is to win in two or three years, Oweh is worth a late-round flier.
26. Browns — Alabama DT1 Christian Barmore
The Browns released three-tech Sheldon Richardson this offseason and don’t have a long-term replacement on the roster. Barmore is the highest-upside three tech in the class and consensus DT1 overall. From an analytics perspective, Barmore checks early declare, Power 5, and athletic boxes.
27. Ravens — Oklahoma State OT4 Teven Jenkins
Trading RT Orlando Brown leaves a massive hole at offensive tackle, especially with LT Ronnie Stanley coming off a major injury. Protecting Lamar Jackson is an obvious priority, and Jenkins is the top-ranked right tackle of the class.
28. Saints — Virginia Tech CB3 Caleb Farley
Farley has top-12 overall tape and athleticism, but two back surgeries make him a boom-bust selection. The Saints haven’t been scared of taking risks historically and need a home run pick to keep this roster in the NFC Championship mix.
29. Packers — Notre Dame LB4 Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
This would be a best player available selection, while also filling a need at linebacker. The Packers have needed upgrades for years, and Owusu-Koramoah would be awesome in their Cover 2 zone defense. He can defend tight ends, running backs, and slot corners out in space.
30. Bills — Northwestern CB4 Greg Newsome
Buffalo’s cornerback depth chart is quietly really bad beyond their CB1. Newsome would be considered one of the steals of the draft if he falls this far, something I’m not expecting to happen.
31. Ravens — TCU FS1 Trevon Moehrig
A blitzing single-high Cover 1 defense, Baltimore doesn’t have the safety help to prevent the big play, nor do they have the free safety that can fly into the box against the run. Moehrig played a versatile role in college and is the consensus top safety in the class. He’ll play a similar position to the one Ed Reed left behind… just not at that level.
32. Buccaneers — Georgia EDGE4 Azeez Ojulari
Ojulari’s medicals are reportedly a legit concern, but the Bucs are in “win now” mode given their roster and they can keep him on a snap count if need be. He’d be a plus run defender and JPP insurance immediately. Not pegged as a high-upside pass rusher, Ojulari just needs to win one-on-ones opposite Shaq Barrett long term.