Touch Shares In Different Game Scripts
Fantasy football projections aren’t straight-forward. There are assumptions we can make by using point spreads, but upside can be captured when game scripts tilt in one direction. Different types of players preform better with a lead than while chasing points. This column has the 2021 data that shows which game script each player is being used in the most.
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2021 Game Script Shares
The table shows player touch shares (% of carries or targets on a team) depending on the three game scripts: “Neutral” (in-game winning percentage between 34–66%, “Trail” (33% or below), and “Lead” (67% or higher). The “Script Bump” column is the one to monitor. It show how much higher a player’s touch share is when leading versus when trailing, where a negative number means a player has been used more in negative game scripts.
There are some warnings, however. I removed the teams with a small number of snaps in either game script (the Cardinals have barely played in negative script), and I removed players who haven’t played in at least 5 games because I’m dividing the touches across the entire season. If you know a player has missed time, the touch shares will not be predictive (ie: Alex Collins, Alexander Mattison). Use your brains, please.
