Week 10 Fantasy Football Blueprint
The one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
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The offenses of the week are the Cowboys, Bills, Bucs, Chargers, Rams, Chiefs, and Cardinals. Nothing new there, but the Colts are low-key projected for the 4th most points of Week 10. Interesting.
1. Cowboys (31.75 implied points, -9 spread) vs. ATL
News: Michael Gallup (calf) is expected to play after getting an additional week of rest last week. It’s typically best to lower expectations with players in their first game coming off soft-tissue injuries. Gallup qualifies.
Matchup: Last week’s game wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be. A few 4th-down plays didn’t go there way, and Dak Prescott had a couple of uncharacteristic misses on would-be touchdowns. There’s no reason to panic. Vegas agrees. The Cowboys are projected for the most points of the week against Atlanta’s №31 adjusted sack rate defense. It helps that both teams are top-10 in neutral pace. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, and Dalton Schultz should be in most lineups.
Usage: In the first game without Blake Jarwin (IR), the Cowboys tied a season-low with just three dropbacks with two tight ends on the field per Sports Info Solutions. This should be an 11-personnel team down the stretch more than it was early in the season with Jarwin out and Gallup in. That’s good news for Prescott. Whatever news for basically everyone else.
2. Bucs (30.5, -9.5) @ WAS
News: Rob Gronkowski (back/ribs) is aiming for a return in two or three weeks, so Cameron Brate remains on the TE2 streaming radar. His outlook is also enhanced by the injuries to Antonio Brown (week-to-week) and Chris Godwin (questionable), who is “expected to play” but remains a game-time decision after going DNP-DNP-limited this week. After Friday’s practice Bruce Arians said, “He looked OK today but we’ll see how he is tomorrow. He did just enough to look OK. We’ll see how he is.” If active, it’s possible he’s on a snap count or used as a decoy. His high floor outlook doesn’t apply here, though the ceiling is very much in tact if they were truly just being cautious in practice. If Godwin is active, Tyler Johnson isn’t nearly as streamable. He has expected half PPR point totals of 9.8, 1.9, and 6.8 in the three games without Brown and with Godwin. If Godwin is ruled out, then Tyler Johnson is a WR3 as a 2-WR set starter. His 1.4 yards per route run is good enough for flex appeal in this highly-projected offense (30.5 points). We’ll have to follow Sunday morning’s news. … Breshad Perriman is active as a rotational option at the second outside receiver spot. Scotty Miller will not play.
3. Bills (30.25, -13) @ NYJ
News: Zack Moss (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday but was limited on Thursday and Friday. He’s tentatively on track to play, especially because he ditched the non-contact jersey on Friday. With the Jets’ №29 rushing EPA and №32 fantasy RB defense on deck, there are fantasy points up for grabs, but this is a muddied backfield. Singletary finally began mixing in earlier than normal last week, totaling eight opportunities to Moss’ seven before the latter entered the protocol. Buffalo RBs could be splitting their 19.9 expected half PPR points per game (21st) somewhat evenly in half this week. Moss and Singletary are flex plays. … Dawson Knox (hand) is back after two-straight full practices. He’s averaging 7.5 expected half PPR points in healthy games this year as a borderline TE1.
4. Colts (29.0, -10.5) vs. JAX
Opinion: The Colts offense is pretty sweet right now. LG Quenton Nelson and RT Braden Smith are back, and LT Eric Fisher (Achilles) is better now with help to his right (Nelson). The OL play partially explains why Carson Wentz is third (3rd!!!) in EPA per play since Week 4 when he was listed with “ankles” on the injury report. The betting markets are taking notice by giving the Colts the fourth highest implied team total (29.0) of the week. Wentz is an upside QB2. Dope AF ex-Trojan Michael Pittman is the WR9 on WR29 fantasy usage over the last four weeks. And Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on RB6 fantasy usage. Even Nyhiem Hines is in play as a PPR flex if Marlon Mack is healthy-scratched again. He had 8.3 expected half PPR points in a blowout win last week.
5. Chargers (28.0, -3) vs. MIN
News: The Vikings will be without EDGE1 Danielle Hunter, CB1 Patrick Peterson, FS1 Harrison Smith, DT2 Michael Pierce, and LB2 Anthony Barr. CB2 Bashaud Breeland is also questionable. This is an exploitable defense due to injuries, especially with them coming to the west coast after a road overtime loss to the Ravens.
Usage: Mike Williams was hurt in Week 6, had a bye in Week 7, saw bracket coverage from Bill Belichick in Week 8, and then had the toughest Cover 2 matchup against Darius Slay who followed him around in Week 9. It’s been a tough stretch for Williams (WR47 fantasy usage in the last four weeks), but he’s my Benjamin of the Week here now that he’s off the injury report. Even with a healthy lineup, the Vikings are 26th against fantasy WRs, and the betting markets give the Chargers the 5th highest team total of the week. Los Angeles is 4th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral pass rate right now, which has led to the 5th most fantasy usage to WRs on the year.
6. Cardinals (27.5, -10.5) vs. CAR
News: Kyler Murray (ankle) went DNP-DNP-limited this week, giving him a shot to play this week, though he could be a little less active as a scrambler and … DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is unlikely to play. He didn’t practice all week and clearly aggravated it last game after not practicing all week. … The good news is that A.J. Green (COVID) and Rondale Moore (concussion) are on track to play. Expect Christian Kirk to move to the outside (where he’s less effective) to get Moore into 3-WR sets from the slot. All three are on the flex radar if Murray is cleared and Hopkins is out. I’d rank them Green, Kirk, then Moore because the latter has a 1.2 aDOT this year. … Chase Edmonds (ankle) is out, so James Conner is a top-8 fantasy RB. We talked about it in detail during the “Week 10 Fantasy Usage: Film vs. Data Show” here:
7. Chiefs (27.5, -2.5) @ LV
News: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) is eligible to come off injured reserve whenever, and OC Eric Bieniemy said he “looked pretty good” in practice on Thursday. But Andy Reid said it’s “a stretch” to think he’ll play this week. That likely means we get another week of upside RB2 Darrel Williams, who led all RBs in expected half PPR points (20.8) last week after Derrick Gore was phased out. He’s been the RB21 on RB10 fantasy usage over the last four weeks.
Matchup: The Chiefs are simply not getting open at the same rate as they were last year (see below), and Patrick Mahomes isn’t seeing the field as well and holding onto the ball too long for whatever reason. The Chiefs are attacking the same portions of the field as usual, but things haven’t been clicking. This matchup is decent for the Chiefs, however. The Raiders (led by Cover 3 king Gus Bradley) have played in a two-high shell on just 62 pass plays this year, 30th in the NFL per Sports Info Solutions, so that narrative won’t be a problem. If they can beat the Raiders DBs in one-on-one matchups, we could see the Chiefs get back on their feet. Vegas is starting Casey Hayward (actually good), Nate Hobbs, Brandon Facyson, Trevon Moehrig, and Johnathan Abram in the secondary. It’s time to buy low on Kansas City.
8. Ravens (27.0, -7.5) @ MIA
News: Latavius Murray (hamstring) is doubtful for Thursday Night Football, so it’ll be another split between Devonta Freeman (RB31 fantasy usage) and Le’Veon Bell (RB50) at running back. Bell got going late last week, ultimately finishing with a new season-high 7.7 expected half PPR points. It’s possible that he plays more in Week 10 than he has prior. Freeman has earned 8.9 and 12.0 expected half PPR points in two starts without Murray. Both are low-floor RB3s at best with Baltimore ranking 6th in neutral pass rate over the last four weeks. … Sammy Watkins (hamstring) got in a full practice on Wednesday, so he should be a 3-WR set starter next to Marquise Brown (WR12 fantasy usage) and Rashod Bateman (WR44). Watkins’ presence could hurt Bateman a little bit, especially because we don’t know who will play in 2-WR sets yet, but there’s enough passing volume to support at least two pass-catchers in this offense. … Not a fantasy asset, but the Ravens are close to getting stud blocking tight end Nick Boyle (knee) back. He is questionable after a week of limited practices.
9. Packers (26.5, -3.5) vs. SEA
News: Aaron Rodgers came off the COVID list on Saturday, so he’ll play as a low-end QB1. … Stud LT David Bahktiari needs another week before suiting up.
Usage: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) returned in Week 9 but ran fewer routes (24-of-41) than Allen Lazard (34). That wasn’t the case early in the season, and I expect MVS to be a near full-time player as soon as Week 10. Lazard’s run-blocking was more important with Jordan Love last week, while Rodgers needs MVS’s speed. MVS averaged 8.1 expected half PPR points in Weeks 1–3 and qualifies as a dart-throw WR5 against a Seahawks defense that’s №28 in adjusted sack rate and starts a stat-padding linebacker at strong safety.
10. Rams (26.5, -4) @ SF
Old News: Odell Beckham signed a 1-year contract with the Rams on Thursday. He slides into the Van Jefferson role (78% of snaps out wide), which pushes Cooper Kupp into the slot even more than he was (65% snaps). Woods’ snap share should be largely unaffected. … Especially after TE2 Johnny Mundt’s injury, the Rams are a 3-WR set team. In fact, they’ve averaged 36 dropbacks with three receivers on the field this year, the most in the NFL. Beckham needs to prove he’s healthy and understands the playbook before making an impact, but there is WR3/flex volume for the taking as evidenced by Van Jefferson’s WR37 fantasy usage over the last four games. … As for Kupp and Woods, there’s no denying this hurts them a tiny bit. Odell wouldn’t sign there unless he was promised targets, and Sean McVay should get him manufactured touches, something that both receivers have been making the most of in recent years. Since Woods is an outside receiver, I’m more worried about his outlook compared to Kupp’s, but it’s not enough to fully panic about. My prediction from Week 11 on: Kupp (top-5 WR), Woods (WR20–30), Odell (WR30–45), Higbee (TE10–15).
New News: Robert Woods tore his ACL and will be out for the season. Not only is he a team captain and veteran, but he also is one of the most unique players to the Rams offense. He has inside/outside versatility and is one of a handful of receivers capable of blocking in tight bunches, in motion, and in the screen game. In fact, he’s tied for the WR lead with 202 blocks this year and is 1st out of 63 qualifying WRs in PFF’s blocking grade (by a wide margin). There isn’t a one-for-one replacement in that role because he’s simply special, so we should expect this role to be cut in half and then split between Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee, who may be tasked with more blocking responsibilities now.
As for fantasy, Kupp’s outlook isn’t all that changed as the balling slot player in 3-WR sets. Jefferson will likely slide back into the Woods role, though he won’t earn the targets, see the manufactured touches, and be as effective as a blocker (56th out of 63 WRs in PFF blocking grade) as the former Trojan. Jefferson was the WR37 in fantasy usage over the last four weeks before chaos ensued. WR4/5 production seems reasonable down the stretch. Odell Beckham now projects for more targets, some of which will stem from the underneath manufactured touches Bobby Trees leaves behind but also some of the slants, digs, and outs that were on his plate. That provides him a long-term floor (it could take a couple weeks to get up to speed here), but Odell’s ceiling will come on the more vertical routes (posts, corners, gos, backside dig) from the X-WR spot. Woods’ WR14 fantasy usage could be near his ceiling once he gets his feet wet. My Week 12 on projections: Kupp (top-5 WR), Beckham (WR8–24), Jefferson (WR30–48), Higbee (TE10–18). We’ll see Beckham in a Rams uniform on Monday Night Football as a boom-bust WR3/flex.
11. Steelers (25.5, -8.5) vs. DET
Old News: Chase Claypool (toe) likely heads to injured reserve, leaving Diontae Johnson (WR7 fantasy usage) with a weekly projection of approximately 69 catches per game moving forward. Johnson will be joined by James Washington in 2-WR sets. Washington was moved into the slot in games without JuJu Smith-Schuster to make sure he played over Ray-Ray McCloud. Now Washington can play in his natural position out wide. It’ll help both Washington and Johnson if Pittsburgh goes to even more 2-TE sets with Eric Ebron expected back. Pat Freiermuth (TE6 fantasy usage) shouldn’t come off the field after looking like a legit player out in space and in the red zone. Detroit’s defense is dead last in passing EPA.
New News: Ben Roethlisberger (COVID) is out, so Mason Rudolph gets the last-minute start. Rudolph has a career 6.4 YPA and 15/10 TD/INT ratio and Big Ben is sitting at 6.6 YPA and 10/4 TD/INT ratio this year, so it’s not much of a downgrade in general. In fact, the Steelers’ team total only dropped from 25.5 to 23.75 since the news. Diontae Johnson, James Washington, and Pat Freiermuth could be moved down a few spots in positional rankings because Rudolph hasn’t taken first-team reps this week, but this isn’t a massive deal.
12. Vikings (25.0, +3) @ LAC
News: Dalvin Cook might be in serious trouble long term, but the NFL is unlikely to come down with discipline this early. You can read about the legal ramifications in the thread below. Make sure Alexander Mattison is rostered in all formats.
Matchup: The Chargers are 32nd in rushing EPA defense and allowing the highest neutral run rate in the NFL because Two High King Brandon Staley’s defensive philosophy. Cook should be able to rack up yardage as he pleases here. … Chargers CB1 Michael Davis (hamstring) and FS1 Nasir Adderley didn’t practice on Wednesday, but CB2 Asante Samuel (concussion) was back in full.
13. Raiders (25.0, +2.5) vs. KC
News: DeSean Jackson will likely take most of Zay Jones’ snaps at the Z-WR spot, but Bryan Edwards’ spot in 2-WR spots is also threatened now that he’s done next to nothing despite having opportunities to show up. Hunter Renfrow (WR22 fantasy usage) is by far the best receiver option right now.
14. Titans (24.0, -3) vs. NO
News: Julio Jones (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve. That puts A.J. Brown in the top-3 WR discussion, while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine battles slot-man Chester Rodgers for 2-WR set snaps. In the four games Jones has missed, NWI has averaged 7.3 expected half PPR points, though his biggest fantasy usage game also came with Brown inactive, too. He’s a WR4/5 on paper.
Opinion/Usage: Jeremy McNichols looked the best of the three backs, even as a pure rusher. Adrian Peterson wasn’t explosive and is still getting a feel in this system, but his role will likely increase as the season continues mostly at the expense of D’Onta Foreman. Their expected half PPR points last week: Peterson (9.5), McNichols (9.4), Foreman (3.6) with McNichols as the passing-down back and Peterson as the goal-line back. A two-back committee limits both Peterson and McNichols as flex plays only. … Of note, the Titans had their highest neutral pass rate (56%) since the beginning of 2020 last week. They should continue passing more without Derrick Henry. I will say that the Titans passing and rushing offenses looked bad in general (outside of throws to A.J. Brown) against the Rams. They averaged 4.6 yards per dropback and 2.6 yards per carry.
15. Broncos (23.75, -2.5) vs. PHI
News/Usage: The Broncos will be without LT Garrett Bolles, RT Bobby Massie, and RG Graham Glasgow (IR). Yikes. … Noah Fant (COVID) is back in the lineup. That could mean more 2-TE sets, especially with the tackle problems, but likely just means the Albert O TE2 experience is put on hold. … Courtland Sutton is still playing the most snaps, but his expected half PPR points tank from 13.4 to 3.9 in the three games with Jerry Jeudy in the lineup. The Broncos’ №31 neutral pace and №20 neutral pass rate need to climb if Sutton and Jeudy are going to be anything more than boom-bust WR3/flexes. Tim Patrick, who rotated with Jeudy in 2-WR sets last week, will be muddying this up. They’re fantasy usage ranks over the last four weeks: Sutton (WR41), Jeudy (WR51), Patrick (WR65).
Opinion/Usage: Javonte Williams’ Week 9 performance wasn’t just made by a few highlight runs (like the one below). It was his consistent vision and timing that were equally as impressive. Melvin Gordon was simply out-running the rookie when it came to inside and outside zone carries this year, but Williams looked like a student learning from his master last Sunday. In fact, Williams set a new season-high in Sports Info Solutions’ “Designed Gap Rate” metric (88% in Week 9 vs. 45% in Weeks 1–8), which measures how often a back hits the whole designed by the play. Already built with league-high broken tackle rates, Williams has a ceiling to chase … eventually. Melvin Gordon still started, played 53% of snaps, and had a good game himself against Dallas. I expect this to be a 50/50 split at least until the Week 11 bye but likely throughout the entire season if both are healthy.
16. Patriots (23.25, -1.5) vs. CLE
News: Damien Harris (concussion) has been ruled out, but Rhamondre Stevenson cleared concussion protocol on Saturday. He’ll be the early-down ballcarrier in this run-heavy offense (29th in neutral pass rate) that’s 1st in expected fantasy points to RBs (24.8 per game). That alone gets him on the boom-bust RB2 radar, though there is a lower floor than normal because he didn’t practice this week and in-practice development has been a storyline throughout his rookie journey. Expect Brandon Bolden to play on most pass situations as a desperate flex play. The Browns defense isn’t one to mess with now that it’s healthy, and the betting markets know it. New England is projected for the 16th most points (23.25) on the week. The good news is that the OL is finally jelling after injuries derailed the unit in September.
17. Seahawks (23.0, +3.5) @ GB
News: Russell Wilson (finger) is expected to play but could not have his usual touch on intermediate and deep passes per Twitter doctors. He’s more of a QB2 than must-play QB1 in his return. Both offenses play slow in neutral situations (19th & 28th). … Second-round rookie Dee Eskridge is expected to play as well after a lengthy concussion. … And Chris Carson (neck) is a game-time decision after returning to practice this week. He feels like a week away, but we’ll learn more on Sunday morning. Alex Collins has averaged 9.7 half PPR on 10.3 expected half PPR points as the starter. Those numbers should be slightly better with Wilson at quarterback instead of Geno Smith.
18. Falcons (22.75, +9) @ DAL
News: Cowboys EDGE1 Demarcus Lawrence and EDGE2 Randy Gregory are both on injured reserve. That likely pushes LB Micah Parsons to the line of scrimmage. It’s a big deal for a Dallas defense that hasn’t been getting the Pick 6s they were getting earlier in the year. I think Dallas will be a slightly below-average defense for the next few weeks. It’s shootout time here.
19. 49ers (22.5, +4) vs. LAR
News: JaMycal Hasty (ankle) is out. Even though Eli Mitchell caught a season-high 5 passes last week, Hasty remained the 3rd down and passing situation back. It’s unclear if that will simply go to Jeff Wilson and/or Kyle Juszekyk or if Mitchell is ready to take the next step. Either way, Mitchell has earned RB2 love. He’s the RB13 on RB27 fantasy usage over the last four weeks, and his patience/timing has improved on tape since a boom-bust beginning to his career.
Usage: Was it a coincidence that Deebo Samuel had a season-low 9.8 expected half PPR points in the game that George Kittle returned and Brandon Aiyuk (46-of-49 routes) actually played in? I don’t think so. This isn’t the fantasy analyst consensus, but target competition matters, and Deebo suddenly has it. He had a 35% target share in Weeks 1–8. That dropped to 24% last week. With the Niners 13th in neutral pace and 19th in neutral pass rate, it’s going to be hard for Deebo to hold onto his WR16 fantasy usage. He’s a sell high as a WR3 in my opinion, especially after considering how he’s a negative regression candidate on his deep passes.
20. Browns (21.75, +1.5) @ NE
News: Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton, and John Kelly were all placed on the COVID list, but there’s still some hope Chubb, who is vaxxed, can get cleared by Sunday with two negative tests. It’s unlikely, though possible. If out, D’Ernest Johnson will enter the game as the only RB who has been active for the Browns this year. Johnson is good enough behind this truly elite run-blocking offensive line that’s using more pulling guards with power runs recently (see below). Johnson is a plug-in RB1/2 with upside. The Patriots defense is 13th in rushing EPA, 19th against fantasy RBs, and are allowing the 7th highest neutral run rate against (meaning offenses are choosing to run against NE) this year. It’s an okay matchup on the road.
21. Eagles (21.25, +2.5) @ DEN
The Eagles are my Underdog of the Week.
Usage: The Eagles have done a complete 180 on their neutral pass rates. After ranking 1st earlier, Philly is suddenly dead last in neutral pass rate in the last three weeks. Because Denver is typically light in the box, opposing offenses are 6th in neutral run rate against them, so we should expect another heavy dosage of carries here. That’s especially true with EDGE1, EDGE2, LB1, and LB2 out of the lineup. … The question is: which RB? That’s a tough question. Boston Scott started in each of the last two weeks, but Jordan Howard was the preferred option in Week 9 and has earned 12.8 and 13.0 expected half PPR points over those two games. He’s the best bet for flex numbers, but you know what you’re signing up for if starting him. Scott, meanwhile, is the RB35 in fantasy usage over the last four games. Gainwell is the RB46.
22. Football Team (21.0, +9.5) vs. TB
News: It seems like Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) won’t return this year. Sad. I guess the media will have to continue pretending that Taylor Heinicke is a fun NFL quarterback to watch.
Matchup: The Bucs defense is 4th in rushing EPA and opposing offenses have the lowest neutral pass rate against them by a mile (see below). Antonio Gibson, who was still limited on Wednesday coming off the bye, would have to overcome his injury, the worst matchup in fantasy, and a sinking fantasy usage ranking (WR37) to be a viable RB2 this week. This game screams J.D. McKissic (WR30 fantasy usage) instead.
23. Saints (21.0, +3) @ TEN
News: Promo Code Alvin is “probably doubtful” with a knee sprain per beat reporter GOAT Nick Underhill, and even if active, he will be hampered with lateral ability. I’m projecting Mark Ingram to start and play at a near full workload. The Saints had a season-low 39% neutral pass rate last week with Jameis Winston (ACL) out, and the strengths of this roster are in the trenches. Ingram could be an upside RB1/2 here. In general, Tennessee is kicking ass up front, but they are somehow 25th in rushing EPA defense. … Trevor Siemian will start again, but it sounds like there will be more Taysom Hill gadget stuff this week, which makes given their lack of playmakers sans-Alvin. Neither can be started at a fantasy QB spot this week. It’s just Ingram for fantasy purposes.
24. Dolphins (19.5, +7.5) vs. BAL
News/Matchups: Tua Tagovailoa (finger) is expected to be a backup or be inactive, leaving Jacoby Brissett as the starter. It’s not a big downgrade in my opinion, as both have been targeting players underneath at high clips. The Ravens’ aggressive man-heavy defense requires good athletes to get open, so the offense will likely continue running through Jaylen Waddle (WR10 fantasy usage) and Mike Gesicki (TE10 fantasy usage). They both have noticeable splits without DeVante Parker, who is on injured reserve with Will Fuller. This Ravens defense isn’t one to be overly scared of right now due to injuries and offseason departures. They are 22nd in passing EPA and 27th in adjusted sack rate. … Preston Williams is expected to be active after not playing last week. He’s a threat to Mack Hollins’ №2 job. Hollins played on 82% of dropbacks in Week 9.
25. Jaguars (18.5, +10.5) @ IND
News: James Robinson (heel) “is questionable with a good chance to play.” He was averaging 15.8 expected half PPR points in his four most recent games. If out, Carlos Hyde is a flex play after racking up 12.2 and 13.9 expected half PPR points as J-Rob’s fill in. … Colts CB1 Xavier Rhodes, who has certainly been struggling this year, is out. He would’ve been covering Marvin Jones on the perimeter. A slight bump for him.
Usage: Jamal Swagnew (WR35 fantasy usage) and Marvin Jones (WR36) are clearly ahead of Laviska Shenault (WR58), who continues to be played out of position at X-WR. The real culprit of Jones’ demise is Dan Arnold, who is averaging a 5–55–0 line on 7.5 targets in the last four games. He’s the TE12 in fantasy usage and is a more valuable asset than Shenault and Swagnew right now. Jones is still the one with a ceiling as a big-play and red zone threat.
26. Jets (17.25, +13) vs. BUF
News/Usage: Corey Davis (hip) was limited on Wednesday and expects to play Week 10. Elijah Moore has enjoyed a post-bye rookie bump recently, but he’s averaging just 6.5 expected half PPR points in games with Davis active this year. Moore easily could be in a rotation with Keelan Cole Z-WR now that the Jets have their X back in the lineup. He’s a sell high after running just 37-of-59 routes last week. … The same can be said, at a lesser extent, for Michael Carter. He’s the RB9 on RB4 fantasy usage since the bye, but Tevin Coleman (hamstring) is expected to return. Coleman was an early-down back only prior to his injury, and Carter continues to only play on early downs while Ty Johnson operates as their third down preference. It’s possible that this goes back to a 3-back rotation. The good news for Week 10 is that the White Guy is at QB. He loves nothing more than checking things down to his RBs.
Matchup: New York is projected for the 26th most points of the week (17.25) against a Bills defense that ranks first in passing EPA, rushing EPA, fantasy QBs allowed, fantasy RBs allowed, and fantasy WRs allowed.
27. Lions (17.0, +8.5) @ PIT
News/Matchup: Jamaal Williams (thigh) didn’t practice much this week. D’Andre Swift somehow had worse usage without Williams in Week 8, but that is a small sample worth ignoring. Swift is the RB11 in fantasy usage over the last four weeks, though the matchup couldn’t be worse on the road against two slow-paced boring offenses. Detroit is projected for the 27th most points of the week (17.0). Swift is a low-end RB1 in PPR.
Usage: There’s rumors that Amon-Ra St. Brown could play more outside receiver down the stretch. It’s a requirement for him to be fantasy viable. We’ll monitor that.
28. Panthers (17.0, +10.5) @ ARI
Usage: Christian McCaffrey is a near lock to play way more than the 49% of snaps he played last week. I don’t believe we’ll see the peak CMC because the coaching staff wants to scale his workload back a little to keep him healthy — probably smart — but he can be a top-3 RB even with 80% of his 2018–2020 workloads. Expect plenty of check down targets in negative script against a fast-paced offense.
News: The Panthers signed Cam Newton to a 1-year, $4.5M guaranteed contract after learning Sam Darnold (shoulder) will miss 4–6 weeks. That’s legit money for a half season of work, so I think Newton can start the rest of the season even if Darnold gets healthy late. This week likely will be too quick of a turnaround, but Newton is an upgrade over injured Darnold or P.J. Walker. I though Newton looked decent in the preseason, and more importantly, he should be as healthy as he’s been in 3+ years right now.
Week 10 Fantasy Football Defenses
The best defenses of Week 10 are the Cardinals, Bills, Steelers, and Packers with the Colts, Patriots, Ravens, Titans, and others in the streaming mix.