Week 11 Fantasy Football Blueprint

Hayden Winks
Underdog Sports
20 min readNov 18, 2021

The one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.

Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.

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The fantasy offenses of the week are the Bucs, Chiefs, Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, and Cardinals if Kyler Murray is healthy. There’s a pretty big tier drop after them.

1. Bucs (30.0 implied points, -10.5) vs. NYG

News: Rob Gronkowski (back) was a full participant on Thursday ahead of Monday Night Football. He should be back as a TE1. Gronk was averaging 16.1 half PPR points on 11.4 expected half PPR points when healthy at the beginning of the season. … Antonio Brown’s ankle injury is more serious. He didn’t practice on Thursday and has “a long ways to go” in his rehab. Chris Godwin (17.7 half PPR per game) and Mike Evans (17.1) are producing like they did in the Jameis Winston days in games Brown has missed.

Matchup: All are capable of stud numbers regardless of matchup, but Godwin’s matchup in the slot against Darnay Holmes (a MFin UCLA Bruin) is easier than Evans’ against James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson (a MFin USC Trojan). … Perhaps the best matchup of all belongs to Leonard Fournette (RB10 fantasy usage). The Giants are 29th in rushing EPA, 24th against fantasy RBs, and Tampa Bay is projected for the most points of the week (30.0). After struggling to beat a two-high shell last week, I could see more duo runs up the gut at home here.

2. Chiefs (29.25, -2.5) vs. DAL

News: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee) was activated off injured reserve and is expected to start. Fresh off injury, CEH is unlikely to have the bellcow role Darrel Williams had when he averaged 15.4 half PPR points on 16.2 expected half PPR points. Edwards-Helaire is the better in between the tackles, so there’s still touchdown upside attached to a team projected for the 2nd-most points of the week. Williams, pending news, belongs on the bench outside of the deepest of leagues. He’s at least earned some low-volume committee work. … Chiefs RT Lucas Niang and backup RT Mike Remmers (IR) are out, leaving Andrew Wylie for Week 11 as he was in the last two game. Wylie is typically a guard and has graded poorly in each of the last two games.

Usage: Mecole Hardman was rightfully demoted last week. It’s Byron Pringle as the №2 receiver, and his yards per route run this year (1.49) is better than the other ancillary pieces in the offense: Hardman (1.28), Demarcus Robinson (0.59), and Josh Gordon (0.19). Pringle is a DFS dart throw in game stacks and can be added in deeper redraft leagues.

Matchup: The Cowboys defense is 25th in MOFO coverage rate (middle of the field open aka two-high shell), and when they do go to a two-high shell, they’re 21st in success rate. Like last week, this is a good matchup for Patrick Mahomes on paper, especially with EDGE1 Demarcus Lawrence and EDGE2 Randy Gregory on injured reserve. Aside from some turnover luck by Trevon Diggs, the Cowboys aren’t overly dominant defensively in general. Fantasy QBs are scoring the 4th most points against them. Fantasy WRs are 8th.

3. Bills (28.5, -7) vs. IND

Usage: Cole Beasley only played nine snaps last week. Coach Sean McDermott said they were “trying to get him through that game” because of a rib injury. He went DNP-limited-limited in practice this week, which is the exact practice report as last week. The matchup is ideal but the floor is nonexistent. Gabriel Davis (37% routes) isn’t a threat to Karen’s slot usage, and his production last week was largely fluky. I don’t like chasing yards off of “leak” routes. … The Bills mixed in Matt Breida early (mostly on passing downs), and this offense simply don’t use their RBs given their №1 neutral pass rate identity.

Matchup: The Colts’ two-high defense (4th in usage) is what has given the Bills some trouble. Josh Allen is averaging 7.7 YPA against two-high coverages and 8.9 YPA against single-high. They will attempt to make Allen throw underneath, which could benefit Beasley (ribs) if healthy. It’s worth downgrading Emmanuel Sanders and his 18.4 aDOT here. Stefon Diggs is better in isolation (just watch the highlights from last week below), but a banged up CB1 Xavier Rhodes has been gifting fantasy points this year. The Colts are 28th against fantasy WRs.

4. Titans (27.5, -9.5) vs. HOU

Usage: The Titans have had their highest and second-highest neutral pass rates in back-to-back weeks since Ryan Tannehill took over in 2020. It’s not a coincidence. Tennessee is struggling to run the ball (2.5 YPC since Derrick Henry went to IR) with this 3-back committee. Jeremy McNichols looked the best to me, but he’s in the concussion protocol and is out. Week 10 starter D’Onta Foreman played 21 snaps last week and slides into McNichols’ receiving role as the projected snap leader for Week 11. Adrian Peterson, who only played 20 snaps last week, needs goal line touchdowns to be a fantasy RB3. He got those red zone snaps last week, but Tannehill scored on the bootleg. The matchup is good enough to consider either as flex plays here, but you’re best off not having these backs in your lineup for the rest of the season.

Opinion: My best guess is that A.J. Brown goes nuclear.

5. Browns (27.5, -10) vs. DET

News: Get ready for Full Chubb. … Remember, the Lions are missing CB1 Jeffrey Okudah, EDGE1 Romeo Okwara, CB2 Ifeatu Melifonwu, LB1 Trey Flowers, and other depth pieces on defense. It’s as bad as it gets.

6. Patriots (27.0, -6.5) @ ATL

Opinion: The Patriots are projected for the 6th most points of the week. Let me repeat that. The Patriots are projected for the 6th most points of the week. Wild, but I totally get it. Mac Jones is a top-15 quarterback already imo, ranking 2nd in PFF Grade on Non-Play Action, 5th in PFF Grade, 6th in PFF Grade on Non-Pressure, 7th best in Turnover Worthy Plays, 9th in CPOE, 12th in Big Time Throw Rate, 14th in Success Rate, and 15th in EPA/Play.

Matchup: Falcons slot CB Isaiah Oliver (knee) is on injured reserve. CB1 A.J. Terrell is having a good season against opposing №1s, but the rest of the secondary is pretty, pretty bad. I think versatile slot Jakobi Meyers has the easier matchup compared to Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.

Usage: Trent Brown’s return at right tackle was the final puzzle piece to a suddenly top-5 offensive line that trucked the Browns all game last week. The Patriots will run behind these bruisers at league-high rates moving forward, and New England is already 1st in fantasy usage to running backs. It’s impossible to know the exact split with Damien Harris returning, but I lean Harris over Rhamondre Stevenson because that’s how it was prior to injury. I don’t think Harris will have his RB9 fantasy usage, however. Stevenson should mix in more now than he did earlier on. Unfortunately for both, Brandon Bolden likely holds onto 3rd down and passing situation work. I’ll go: Harris (RB2), Stevenson (RB2/3), and Bolden (RB4).

7. Cowboys (26.75, +2.5) @ KC

News/Matchup: Amari Cooper (COVID) is out on Sunday and for Week 12 on Thanksgiving. Enter Michael Gallup into a near full-time role. Cooper leaves behind WR28 fantasy usage over the last four weeks. Gallup is, at worst, an upside WR3 in a projected shootout. … LT Tyron Smith didn’t play last week, but he was limited on Wednesday and is on track to return. The Cowboys are averaging +0.06 more EPA per dropback and +0.19 EPA per carry with Smith on the field per Sports Info Solutions. If Dallas wants to run the ball down against Kansas City, they likely can. The Chiefs are 25th in rushing EPA.

Usage: We didn’t see the massive uptick in 11-personnel usage last week that we expected with Michael Gallup active and Blake Jarwin on injured reserve. They used 3-WR sets on 71% of passes in Weeks 1–9. That was at 69% last week. With Cooper out, we shouldn’t expect this to change.

8. Chargers (26.5, -5.5) vs. PIT

Opinion: We talked about the Chargers offense at length here. Make sure you’re subbed to us on YouTube. That’s our best stuff.

News: The Steelers are without studs EDGE T.J. Watt (knee), S Minkah Fitzpatrick (COVID), CB1 Joe Haden (foot), EDGE Stephon Tuitt, DT Tyson Alualu, and others on defense. As difficult as it is to trust this offense right now, this is truly a get right spot at home against a banged up unit. Vegas projects Los Angeles to score the 8th-most points of the week.

9. Packers (26.0, -2.5) @ MIN

News: Aaron Jones (MCL) will likely be held out through the Packers’ Week 13 bye. A.J. Dillon will be a shoe-in RB1 until then. He had a season-high 22.8 expected half PPR points last week with Jones active for three quarters, and the Vikings are 31st in rushing EPA defense. Patrick Taylor will mix in on some passing downs. … Allen Lazard (shoulder) is doubtful. MVS figures to be in a full-time role as the deep threat, while Cobb starts in the slot. Lazard’s run-blocking will be missed. Last week’s snaps are here below:

Usage: With everyone healthy for the first time in two months, Week 10 routes were spliced between Davante Adams (42-of-43), Randall Cobb (31), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30), and Allen Lazard (27). Because that was MVS’ first game back, it’s possible he steals more snaps at the expense of Lazard and Cobb. His speed is unmatched by this foursome. No EDGE1 Danielle Hunter, DT2 Michael Pierce, and CB1 Patrick Peterson help all of their outlooks.

10. 49ers (26.0, -6.5) @ JAX

News: Eli Mitchell (finger) is doubtful, and third down back JaMycal Hasty (ankle) is out. Jeff Wilson should be in line for Mitchell’s RB17 production and RB25 fantasy usage as 6.5-point favorites this week. He’s a clear RB2 with only Trey Sermon, FB Kyle Juszczyk, and WR Deebo Samuel as part-time backfield contributors. Because this ground game suddenly lacks the speed Shanny desires, I’m anticipating higher than normal neutral pass rates for the 49ers this week.

Opinion: Jimmy Garoppolo has played decent enough since getting past his ankle injury. He’s 1st in EPA per play from Weeks 7–10, which has kept Trey Lance snap-less since Week 5 when he started in relief. Garoppolo should be effective through the air as a QB2. The Niners are projected for the 10th-most points of the week, and the Jaguars are 28th in passing EPA, 31st in adjusted sack rate, and 22nd against fantasy QBs.

11. Ravens (25.5, -6) @ CHI

News: Wild stuff here. Marquise Brown (thigh) is out, leaving Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, and slot man Devin Duvernay in 3-WR sets. Duvernay (knee), however, was downgraded to questionable after going from full to limited on Friday. These are positive developments for Rashod Bateman’s outlook. He’ll go from 64% routes to near 100% and already had WR31 fantasy usage over the last month. He’s a WR2, assuming Lamar Jackson (illness) is active. He was downgraded back to questionable on Saturday after getting in a full practice on Friday. Odd situation. … Latavius Murray (ankle) is questionable, but the signal that he’d be back was waiving Le’Veon Bell earlier this week. Murray and Devonta Freeman will likely split the role on a team that quietly doesn’t use their backs often. … Bears put EDGE1 Khalil Mack on season-ending IR this week and ruled out stud DT Akiem Hicks. Chicago’s EPA per play on defense has been 0.25 points worse without Mack on the field.

12. Bengals (25.25, -1) @ LV

Usage: The Bengals eased Joe Burrow in early on, but over the last four weeks Cincy is tied for 4th in neutral pass rate. That’s led to massive fantasy usage to Ja’Marr Chase (WR3) and Tee Higgins (WR8) on the perimeter, and could be enough to get Tyler Boyd (WR48) back in the PPR flex discussion.

Matchup: The Raiders defense plays in single-high on 65% of snaps (1st), which gives outside receivers one-on-one matchups. Against single-high coverage this season, Higgins (3.9 air yards per route run per Sports Info Solutions) and Chase (3.2) have elite underlying stats. There are ceilings to chase.

13. Cardinals (25.25, -2.5) @ SEA

News: Kyler Murray (ankle) was limited in practice and is a game-time decision. I think he plays with an in-division opponent on the docket, though he could be less mobile than usual. … DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) is out, however. With a Week 12 bye on the horizon, it was smart to rest his soft-tissue injury. That’ll put A.J. Green and Antoine Wesley on the perimeter with Christian Kirk in the slot. Because Rondale Moore is literally dead last in yards per route run versus man coverage (0.04), he’s stuck in this screen-heavy backup role. Kirk and Green are the fantasy options with Hopkins is out. … Seahawks SS Jamal Adams (groin) and CB1 D.J. Reed (groin) are game-time decisions after not practicing on Friday. Their absences would be good news for A.J. Green and Christian Kirk.

Usage: James Conner played 82% of the snaps, not including the last two drives when the starters were pulled. He’s a bellcow in an elite offense against the №30 fantasy RB defense. It’s RB1 szn.

14. Raiders (24.25, +1) vs. CIN

Usage: Derek Carr had an 8.9 average depth of target (aDOT) with Henry Ruggs in Weeks 1–7. That’s dropped to 6.4 yards since his release. The split is unlikely to be that drastic all year, but the downfield shot play will be harder to find unless DeSean Jackson has a bounce back second half.

15. Dolphins (23.75, -3) @ NYJ

News: Malcolm Brown (knee) is not expected to return this week. Myles Gaskin has been wildly inefficient behind arguably the league’s worst offensive line, but he has averaged 14.8 expected half PPR points in games without Brown. Perhaps he does more with his touches against the №30 rushing EPA and №32 fantasy RB defense. Gaskin is a low-end RB2, particularly in PPR, though Duke Johnson being activated off the practice squad certainly lowers Gaskin’s floor.

16. Vikings (23.5, +2.5) vs. GB

News/Matchup: The Packers are still without CB1 Jaire Alexander and EDGE1 Za’Darius Smith, so good passing offenses (like Minnesota’s) can be effective despite Green Bay’s №7 passing EPA defense. Of course, the Packers are in a two-high shell on 68% of plays (3rd), leaving them with a “light box” at the 4th highest rate in the league. Advantage Dalvin Cook, who is due for some positive regression as show by the Fantasy Usage Model (above) and GOAT analyst Rich Hribar:

17. Panthers (23.5, -3.5) vs. WAS

News/Usage: Cam Newton will start but it’s possible that P.J. Walker mixes in a bit. Still, Newton at the very minimum will get all of the red zone work as a boom-bust QB2. After securing the bag two weeks ago, I’d be surprised if he’s not out there for most snaps in his return home. … Even before signing Newton to legit money, the Panthers were trending to a massively run-heavy offense, and over the last four weeks, they’re 31st in neutral pass rate. Massive Christian McCaffrey and Newton rushing workloads — especially in the red zone — work against D.J Moore (WR19 fantasy usage) and Robby Anderson (WR47). … As a reminder, this offensive line is brutal. They’re 22nd in adjusted sack rate and have LT Cameron Erving, C Matt Paradis, RG John Miller, and LG Deonte Brown on injured reserve. It’s the clear weakness of the roster. The good news is…

Matchup: The Football Team held their own against the Bucs last week, but on the year they are 30th in passing EPA and dead last against fantasy QBs/WRs. Now they’re missing EDGE1 Chase Young (ACL) and EDGE Montez Sweat (jaw). This is a good matchup for everyone.

18. Seahawks (22.75, +2.5) vs. ARI

Usage: Russell Wilson had his second highest aDOT game of 2021 (11.6 yards downfield) in his return from his finger injury, but the results didn’t follow. There were multiple throws that fluttered away from him, especially when throwing outside of the numbers. His floor is lower until we know he’s truly healthy (and not sleep deprived), but not playing in cold conditions in Green Bay and having another week to heal make him a reasonable upside QB2 play here.

Matchup: Opposing offenses are running in neutral situations against the Cardinals at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. They had major issues defending it early, and Pete Carroll was already saying how they need to run the ball more following last week’s meltdown. The Hawks could deflate the ball here at frustrating rates. Vegas has adjusted. Seattle is projected for the 18th-most points of the week.

News: Chris Carson (neck) is out for the season, leaving Alex Collins and Rashaad Penny as the top backs for the rest of the way. Coach Pete Carroll (a known optimist with the media) said, “I’m really looking forward to Rashaad (Penny). We’re anxious to see him get going. It’s really his time help us. As we go through the next couple weeks you’ll see him continue to be a big part of it.” This will likely be a two-back committee on Sunday. … Cardinals S Budda Baker (heel) didn’t practice all week and is questionable, and EDGE2 J.J. Watt (shoulder) is likely done for the year. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Arizona’s defense levels out down the stretch.

19. Eagles (22.5, -1.5) vs. NO

News: Miles Sanders is expected back and was called the starter by coach Nick Sirianni. He has some flex appeal with Philly now 31st in neutral pass rate over the last month, but this is a committee backfield. Week 10 snaps: Jordan Howard (24), Boston Scott (20), and Kenny Gainwell (20). I’m most worried about Howard vulturing near the goal line on occasion.

Matchup: The Saints defense is legit, and matches up well against the Eagles’ strengths. Their linebackers are fast and their defensive line is tough, a combination that’s led to №4 rushing EPA and №2 fantasy RB defensive stats. This could be a low-scoring affair. … Hopefully DeVonta Smith can make a few more splash plays against boom-bust man coverage corner Marshon Lattimore. He’s a flex play on WR39 fantasy usage.

20. Colts (21.5, +7) @ BUF

Matchup: The Colts are dead last in neutral pace and now face the №1 passing EPA, rushing EPA, fantasy QB, fantasy RB, and fantasy WR defense on the road with temperatures in the 40s and 65% chance of rain. This projects as a sloppy, run-centric game for the Colts. Vegas agrees. Indianapolis is projected for the 21st-most points this week.

21. Saints (21.0, +1.5) @ PHI

News: Alvin Kamara (knee) is out and needs to get ready quickly to play next Thursday, too. Mark Ingram takes over again after going for 19.7 expected half PPR points last week as the Saints’ focal point. The matchup is more difficult this week and LT Terron Armstead (elbow) and RT Ryan Ramczyk (knee) are out, but volume is king. Ingram belongs on the RB1/2 border. That’ll be especially true if Taysom Hill (foot) is inactive or limited. Hill was DNP-DNP-limited this week.

22. Jets (20.75, +3) vs. MIA

News/Matchup: Joe Flacco is starting. That’s probably bad news for Michael Carter and Ty Johnson’s receiving projection, and probably slightly good news for Corey Davis. The Dolphins are as aggressive as anyone with man coverage and blitzes. I think Davis is the best man beater on the roster. He ran a route on 45-of-50 Week 10 dropbacks in his return. Jamison Crowder was at 48. Elijah Moore, 29.

23. Falcons (20.5, +6.5) vs. NE

News: Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) was limited in practice this week and is a game-time decision. Coming off a high-ankle sprain, it’s assumed that he’ll miss or be ineffective if active. Mike Davis is the projected starter, though Wayne Gallman will also be involved due to lack of weapons in general. No Calvin Ridley. No Hayden Hurst, too.

Usage: Last week, Davis had 3 touches to Gallman’s 2 by the time Patterson rolled his ankle near halftime. Davis was then pulled with the starters halfway through the 3rd quarter, while Gallman was given carries to run out the clock in the 4th quarter. After the game, coach Arthur Smith said, “We know we have to play Thursday, so that’s why you saw a heavy dose of (backup quarterback Josh) Rosen and Gallman and the other guys.” If Patterson is out, Davis projects for 10+ carries and most of the RB receiving work as a flex play. Of course, this OL and this matchup combine to give Davis a non-existent floor:

24. Steelers (20.5, +5.5) @ LAC

News: Ben Roethlisberger (COVID) is likely to play despite not practicing this week. … Chase Claypool (toe) is a surprise active after going limited-limited-full in practice this week. He could be on a snap count or less effective than normal, so the floor remains lower than we’d like. Claypool has WR32 fantasy usage over the last month. James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud are no longer options.

Matchup: Teams are running all over the Chargers, who are 1st in neutral run rate allowed and dead last in rushing EPA. Najee Harris SZN regardless of who is quarterbacking. … For this reason, the Chargers have been stout against the pass, ranking 2nd against fantasy QBs and fantasy WRs. CB1 Michael Davis and FS Nasir Adderley are back.

25. Football Team (20.0, +3.5) @ CAR

Usage: Antonio Gibson had a great game last week while playing with a lead. He held Jaret Patterson to just five snaps off the bye, which gives him more upside than anticipated. Still, J.D. McKissic out-routed Gibson, 17–15. Like always, Gibson is touchdown-or-bust on a team that’s often trailing. Against Carolina’s №3 fantasy RB and №5 rushing EPA defense, Gibson is a volatile flex play better suited in standard or half PPR formats.

26. Bears (19.5, +6) vs. BAL

News: Allen Robinson (hamstring) is doubtful. Darnell Mooney already had WR35 fantasy usage over the last month, so he’s locked into startable usage. Efficiency has been an issue for him in each of his two seasons, but this offense is trending upwards. … In addition to the defensive starters on injured reserve, Ravens DT Brandon Williams (shoulder) and LB Pernell McPhee (knee) are out. CB2 Anthony Averett (thigh) didn’t practice on Friday and is truly questionable. CB1 Jimmy Smith (hip) and slot CB Tavon Young (foot) are questionable after limited practices this week. It’s one of the most injured defenses in the NFL for Week 10.

Opinion: Justin Fields has progressed a ton. Those pre-snap protection issues have been suppressed, he has better feel in the pocket, and most importantly, he’s threatening defenses on the ground. In Weeks 1–7, Fields was 37th out of 37 QBs in EPA per play (-0.26) and 35th in completion percentage over expected (-5.0). In Weeks 8–9, he jumped to 8th (+0.18) and 4th (+5.5). Now we get the Post-Bye Rookie Bump against a defense that’s 20th in passing EPA defense and 21st in adjusted sack rate. Fields is an upside QB2.

27. Jaguars (19.5, +6.5) vs. SF

News: James Robinson (heel, knee) is questionable. He’s had borderline RB1 usage when healthy. Carlos Hyde is a less effective RB2 whenever Robinson is injured.

28. Giants (19.5, +10.5) @ TB

News: Saquon Barkley (ankle) is on track to play, and Kadarius Toney (ankle) is a Post-Bye Rookie Bump graduate who should be in a full-time role now that he’s had another week off his ankle. Toney doesn’t have a floor, but his ceiling is legit with New York top-10 in neutral pace and neutral pass rate. He’s 2nd in the class in yards per route run so far. Sterling Shepard (quad) being ruled out is great news for his playing time and target shares. Toney has some upside. … The Bucs defense is really banged up. DT Vita Vea was injured last week, plus slot CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB1 Carlton Davis, and CB2 Richard Sherman are on injured reserve.

29. Lions (17.0, +10) @ CLE

News: Jamaal Williams (thigh) is questionable after limited practices this week. He seems on pace to return, leaving D’Andre Swift with a slightly lower projection. Both will be the identity of the offense as usual. … Yes, going to Tim Boyle (who has been on injured reserve since September 2nd with a thumb injury) is a downgrade from Jared Goff.

30. Texans (17.0, +10.5) @ TEN

News: Titans OLB Bud Dupree (abdomen), LB Rashaan Evans (ankle), LB David Long (hamstring), and depth CB Greg Mabin (ankle) are all out. CB1 Jackrabbit Jenkins (chest) is questionable after not practicing Thursday or Friday. The Titans are also tied for second with 14 players currently on injured reserve. It’s one of, if not, the most banged up teams in the league.

Usage: Tyrod Taylor can throw the ball to the intermediate and deep parts of the field. That’s why Brandin Cooks is averaging 6.1 more expected half PPR points with Taylor (16.2) than with Davis Mills (10.1). Pressure will be a problem for the passing game, but Cooks (WR16 fantasy usage) can beat these corners.

Week 11 Fantasy Football Defenses

The fantasy defenses of the week are the Titans, Browns, Ravens, Panthers, and Bucs with honorable mentions to the 49ers, Patriots, Dolphins, and Eagles.

Published in Underdog Sports

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