Week 13 Fantasy Football Blueprint (With Rankings!)

Hayden Winks
Underdog Sports
26 min readDec 2, 2021

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The classic matchup notes, but with QB, RB, WR, TE rankings.

We’re a start up at Underdog Fantasy, and that means trying new things and listening to feedback. I asked the good people of Twitter dot com about doing fantasy rankings versus doing the usual Fantasy Blueprint, and it was a 70/30 split in favor of keeping my standard matchup notes.

For Week 13, I’m going to blend both. That means ranking QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs, but also writing notes that will be updated throughout the week. Most of the matchup and injury notes will be under the quarterback rankings, but I’ll add notes to RBs, WRs, and TEs when necessary. Remember to use command + f to search for your teams and players. I’ll try to make this as searchable as possible. If you hate this idea, please let me know. If it’s dope, I might make YouTube videos about it.

Week 13 Fantasy Blueprint

The fantasy offenses of the week are the Rams, Bucs, and Chiefs with honorable mentions to the Cardinals, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Raiders, Colts, and Bengals. I have quick notes on these teams (and even the bad teams) in the Fantasy Usage Model here:

Week 13 QB Fantasy Rankings

1. Tom Brady: Bucs (30.75, -11) at ATL

Tampa Bay is 1st in projected points (30.75) this week, partially because the Falcons are 28th in passing EPA, 30th in adjusted sack rate, and 26th against fantasy quarterbacks. No Antonio Brown is masked by the return of Rob Gronkowski. Brady, the MVP favorite, is averaging 2.72 touchdowns and 309 passing yards per game this year.

2. Kyler Murray: Cardinals (26.75, -8) at CHI

Limited on Wednesday, it’s possible Murray (ankle) doesn’t have his typical juice, but he’s been the best QB this year in my opinion. He’s first in EPA per play when removing screens, RPOs, sweeps, and passes behind the line of scrimmage, and we know that he’s elite at those types of plays with his athleticism. … Chicago’s defense has been 0.23 EPA per play worse with Khalil Mack (IR) off the field, and both DT1 Akiem Hicks (out) and LB1 Roquan Smith (very questionable) are hurt. The Bears defense is one to target currently.

3. Lamar Jackson: Ravens (24.25, -4.5) at PIT

Injury: Steelers CB1 Joe Haden (foot) remains out.

Jackson has surprisingly only played Pittsburgh twice throughout his career, and he was mostly bottled up, totaling three touchdowns to five interceptions. This Ravens offense has more passing firepower, however, and the Steelers’ once-elite defense is only 18th in passing EPA. Jackson’s 70.7 rushing yards per game has him planted inside the top-five in all matchups.

4. Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs (28.25, -9.5) vs. DEN

Mahomes has 11 TDs to two INTs in his six career games (6–0) since becoming the Chiefs’ starter against the Broncos. Vic Fangio is getting the most of his injury-plagued defense, ranking top-10 in passing EPA, adjusted sack rate, and against fantasy QBs. But the Chiefs are notoriously hot coming out of the bye under coach Andy Reid and their offense is at full health. Only the Bucs and Rams are projected for more points than the Chiefs (28.25) this week.

5. Josh Allen: Bills (23.25, -3) vs. NE

Buffalo hasn’t been projected for 23.25 points in awhile, but the Patriots have the betting market’s respect. Belichick has New England 3rd in passing EPA, 4th in adjusted sack rate, and 2nd against fantasy QBs, and opposing offenses are adjusting to it by running the ball in neutral situations at the second-highest rate against the Patriots. The Bills will take a pass-first strategy, of course, but this is a strength versus strength matchup. Belichick has defended Allen pretty well the last two years, totaling eight touchdowns to four interceptions across four games. Even a projected slower game from Allen (QB1 in fantasy points per game) is worth starting.

6. Matthew Stafford: Rams (30.0, -12.5) vs. JAX

Stafford hasn’t played well recently, possibly because of injuries, but this offense is set up for fantasy production. They’re 1st in neutral pace and 2nd in neutral pass rate. Vegas isn’t worried about Stafford’s healthy apparently. The Rams are projected for the 2nd-most points of the week (30.0) at home against the Jaguars’ №30 passing EPA and №30 adjusted sack rate defense. Jacksonville is also without CB1 Shaq Griffin.

7. Dak Prescott: Cowboys (26.0, -4.5) at NO

For the first time all season, Dak Prescott is expected to have Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, and La’El Collins all healthy. It’s the deepest offense in the NFL, and they’re catching the Saints at the right time with EDGE1 Marcus Davenport, EDGE3 Tanoh Kpassagnon, SCB1 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (IR), DT3 Malcolm Roach (IR), and EDGE4 Payton Turner (IR) all sidelined. I like Dallas’ chances of winning their man-to-man matchups against the defense that plays the second-most man defense in the NFL.

8. Justin Herbert: Chargers (23.75, +3) at CIN

For all the criticism of the Chargers’ offense, they’re still 11th in passing EPA and 10th in rushing EPA, and they’re top-six rankings in neutral pass rate and neutral pace are fantasy production breeders. As long as LG Matt Feiler (full practice on Friday) doesn’t join RG Oday Aboushi (IR) and RT Bryan Bulaga (IR) on the sideline, Los Angeles should be able to move the ball well. Cincy’s serviceable defensive stats are heavily influenced by having the easiest strength of schedule so far per Pro Football Reference. They don’t do anything crazy defensively, ranking 23rd in blitz rate and 8th in zone defense.

9. Kirk Cousins: Vikings (26.75, -7) at DET

Cousins is 7–0 against the Lions since becoming a Viking, averaging 271 passing yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. Even by Detroit’s standards, this defense is horrendous without CB1 Jeffrey Okudah and EDGE1 Romeo Okwara. The Lions are dead last in passing EPA and adjusted sack rate.

As for Dalvin Cook’s offense, we shouldn’t expect drastic neutral pass rate changes. In the two games he’s missed this year, Minnesota has had 60% and 52% neutral pass rates, which is just slightly higher than their 51% season average. In fact, one of the games that Cook missed was in Week 5 against these Lions. The Vikings team identity is to set up the deep passing game by running the ball (for right or wrong).

10. Carson Wentz: Colts (27.5, -9.5) at HOU

Obviously the matchup couldn’t be much easier. Wentz had 223 yards and two touchdowns on just 20 pass attempts in a 31–3 win against Houston earlier this year, and there’s better odds of Houston’s offense at least keeping pace a tiny bit here with Tyrod Taylor active this time around. This game eventually will turn to Jonathan Taylor, but Wentz has multi-touchdown upside with the Colts projected for fourth-most points (27.5) of the week.

11. Joe Burrow: Bengals (26.75, -3) vs. LAC

Injuries: Bengals RT Riley Reiff and C Trey Hopkins didn’t practice all week and are very questionable to play. At least Los Angeles is without CB2 Asante Samuel (concussion), and they’re 0.12 passing EPA per play worse with Samuel off the field this year per Sports Info Solutions.

Cincinnati simply isn’t the pass-heavy offense we wanted heading into the season. They’re 30th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral pass rate, leaning heavily on stud RB Joe Mixon. That should be the game plan again here with the Chargers ranking 31st in rushing EPA and 1st in neutral run rate allowed. With that said, the Bengals are projected for the seventh-most points (26.75) of the week, so Burrow is squarely on the QB1/2 border, especially with the Chargers playing with top-six pace on the other side of the ball.

12. Taysom Hill: Saints (21.5, +4.5) vs. DAL

Hill was a full participant in practice all week, so I’m not very concerned with his foot injury. His rushing production in 2020 starts (52.5 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game) immediately puts Hill in the upside QB2 streamer mix, but he likely won’t have Michael Thomas, LT Terron Armstead (DNP Wednesday), and RT Ryan Ramczyk (DNP Wednesday) this time around. Thus, he’ll be scrambling often, and the scoreboard may force him into more pass attempts than he had last year (28.5 average in starts) when the Saints went 3–1 against a cupcake schedule. Ultimately, this is a very bad environment for Hill, especially with Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons on the edge for Dallas, but we should be betting on dual-threat quarterbacks more times than not in fantasy.

13. Derek Carr: Raiders (26.25, -2.5) vs. WAS

Washington’s defense hasn’t allowed more than 304 total yards in five straight games despite losing EDGE1 Chase Young and EDGE2 Montez Sweat during that hot run. Still, on the season the Football team is 29th in passing EPA and dead last against fantasy QBs. The matchup isn’t the concern. It’s the losses of Henry Ruggs and Darren Waller. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Raiders are averaging 0.14 fewer EPA per play with Waller off the field this year, which is about a touchdown difference across an entire game. I’m surprised the Raiders are still projected for the ninth-most points (26.25) on the week, even if DeSean Jackson and Foster Moreau are adequate replacements.

14. Tua Tagovailoa: Dolphins (22.75, -5) vs. NYG

Tagovailoa is averaging 58.9 yards per game on screens and RPOs, by far the most in the league with Patrick Mahomes in second down at 40.1. It’s an extremely QB-friendly system and DeVante Parker is expected to join Jaylen Waddle this week. Tagovailoa’s 255 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game are right in line with QB2 baselines. New York being without slot CB Darnay Holmes (IR) and CB2 Adoree Jackson (DNP Wednesday) are the cherries on top.

15. Matt Ryan: Falcons (19.75, +11) vs. TB

This might be the best stat of the Week 13 Fantasy Blueprint: The Falcons are averaging +0.24 EPA per pass attempt with Cordarrelle Patterson on the field and -0.35 with him on the sideline. That’s equivalent to the difference of an Aaron Rodgers dropback and a Zach Wilson one. With the Bucs stud run defense forcing opposing offenses into a league-high 70% neutral pass rate, Ryan is in line for a volume-based QB2 day even with the Falcons projected for just 19.75 points this week. Tampa Bay CBs Carlton Davis (IR), Richard Sherman (IR), and Jamel Dean (questionable) are all banged up.

16. Russell Wilson: Seahawks (21.0, +3.5) vs. SF

Wilson is 30th in EPA per play and 23rd in completion percentage over expected since rushing back from finger surgery. He’s sailing passes high underneath and continues to struggle seeing open receivers over the middle. The biggest difference this year to me is Wilson’s subtle declining athleticism in and out of the pocket, which has translated to a career-low 14.8 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry (second worst average of his career). Vegas agrees with the overall pessimism by giving the Seahawks a lowly 21.0-point team total this week. The solution for the Seahawks when in a slump has always been trying to #EstablishTheRun, and only the Chargers defense has invited a higher neutral run rate than the 49ers offense this year. A slow-paced in-division game isn’t the formula for a bounce back game.

Injury: 49ers super star LB Fred Warner (hamstring) didn’t practice all week.

17. Jimmy Garoppolo: 49ers (24.5, -3.5) at SEA

Deebo Samuel’s +0.37 EPA per target (11th among players with 50+ targets) will be severely missed this week, but Jimmy Garoppolo is playing efficient football even when removing screens, sweeps, and RPOs. He’s 7th in EPA per play when filtering out those gimme plays, and the matchup is pretty positive with Seattle ranking 26th in passing EPA and 29th in adjusted sack rate. Garoppolo had 165 yards, one touchdown, and one interception before getting injured going into halftime against Seattle earlier this season.

18. Taylor Heinicke: Washington (23.75, +2.5) at LV

Washington is being taken more seriously by the betting markets now (23.75 implied points), even though they’ve covered that total in just 4-of-11 games and are currently more injured than ever. Fill-in C Tyler Larsen (DNP-limited-limited), RG Wes Schweitzer (out), LG Ereck Flowers (DNP all week), and stud rookie RT Sam Cosmi (IR) are unlikely to play. The Football Team will attempt to establish the run (28th in neutral pass rate) behind a second-string offensive line. Heinicke’s 25.5 rushing yards per game and garbage time production have kept him in QB2 rankings for weeks nonetheless.

19. Teddy Bridgewater: Broncos (18.75, +9.5) at KC

Denver only being projected for 18.75 points is a surprise.

LT Garrett Bolles (COVID) and RT Bobby Massie (ankle) are expected to return, and Teddy Bridgewater is 7th in EPA per dropback and 2nd in completion percentage over expected while having a deep skill group. The Chiefs defense has improved since signing EDGE Melvin Ingram and moving Chris Jones inside, but they’re still 25th in passing EPA and 26th in adjusted sack rate on the season. Kansas City being 4th in neutral pace and Denver being 9.5-point dogs play into Bridgewater’s QB2 projection. The Chiefs also ruled out CB1 Rashad Fenton (knee), who is PFF’s №1 corner this season.

20. Gardner Minshew: Eagles (24.75, -5.5) at NYJ

Old News: Hurts (ankle) is “truly up in the air” per Ian Rapoport despite being able to finish last week’s contest. He’s been a QB1 in 10-of-12 games, and New York’s defense is bottom-three in passing EPA (31st) and rushing EPA (29th). There’s a reason why the Eagles are projected for the 10th most points (26.0) this week, but if his ankle is an issue there is more downside risk than usual.

New News: Gardnew Minshew is making his 2021 debut. He’s been with the Eagles long enough to be familiar with the system, but he’s not nearly the same scheme fit in the latest version of the Eagles’ offense as Hurts is. I’m assuming the Eagles will pass the ball a bit more with Minshew — hello Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith — and be generally efficient against the Jets. Philly is now projected to score 24.75 points.

21. Tyrod Taylor: Texans (18.0, +9.5) vs. IND

Taylor is averaging 30.25 rushing yards and 1.6 total touchdowns in full games, enough to keep him in the super flex mix. Aside from DT Deforest Buckner (DNP Wednesday) and LB Darius Leonard (DNP Wednesday), the Colts’ defense lacks firepower this year, explaining their №24 passing EPA and №28 adjusted sack rate.

22. Ben Roethlisberger: Steelers (19.75, +4.5) vs. BAL

Big Ben is toast, and he’s now on the injury report with pectoral and shoulder issues. Those may have occurred on a hit last week. The Ravens defense continues to be banged up, but DT1 Calais Campbell and CB3 Jimmy Smith are expected to return after limited practices on Wednesday. Losing LG Kevin Dotson to injured reserve isn’t going to help.

23. Mac Jones: Patriots (20.25, +3) at BUF

Between the loss of CB1 Tre’Davius White (ACL) and they’re second-softest strength of schedule, the Bills’ defensive metrics might be overselling just how elite this unit is. With that said, it’s still not a friendly environment for Jones and the passing game with New England ranking 28th in neutral pass rate and 21st in neutral pace. Vegas gives the Pats a 20.25-point projection, keeping Jones on the QB2/3 border.

24. Andy Dalton: Bears (18.75, +8) vs. ARI

Injuries: Allen Robinson (doubtful), Marquise Goodwin (out), and Justin Fields (doubtful) headline the Bears’ injury report. Andy Dalton will start.

As much as I don’t want this to be true, the Bears are averaging +0.23 more EPA per dropback with Dalton on the field than Fields this year. Dalton is still well off the fantasy radar in the NFL’s №25 neutral pace offense, especially against the №1 passing EPA and №5 adjusted sack rate defense.

It’s worth noting just how different Dalton and Fields have been this year. Fields is far more aggressive, while Dalton completes more passes underneath. Mooney can still come down with a deep target from Dalton, but it’s the receptions that become more bankable with the Red Rifle at quarterback.

25. Jared Goff: Lions (19.75, +7) vs. MIN

The Vikings are missing EDGE1 Danielle Hunter, EDGE2 Everson Griffin, and possibly CB1 Patrick Peterson (COVID), but Detroit will be without D’Andre Swift and Goff only had a 201/0/1 against Minnesota earlier this year. It’s been nine games since Goff’s last 300-yard game.

26. Trevor Lawrence: Jaguars (17.5, +12.5) at LAR

It doesn’t matter whose fault it is, Lawrence had one (1) touchdown in November and 21.0 rushing yards per game isn’t enough to overcome the passing numbers.

27. Mike Glennon: Giants (17.75, +5) at MIA

Jones is out with a neck strain this week. Mike Glennon’s Giants are projected for the second-fewest points (17.75) of the week only trailing the MFin Jaguars. The Giants are historically bad under pressure (30th in YPA per PFF this year), and they face the NFL’s №1 blitz rate (35%) defense without Sterling Shepard (doubtful) and Kadarius Toney (doubtful).

28. Zach Wilson: Jets (19.5, +6.5) vs. PHI

Wilson has been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL by all metrics. He’s not seeing the field well and has fewer than five rushing yards in all but one contest. As for the matchup, the worry is that the Eagles can play ball control as a the league’s most run-heavy offense and that rookie Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (surprisingly active) is going to be facing top-five CB1 Darius Slay on the perimeter.

Week 13 RB Fantasy Rankings

  1. Colts’ Jonathan Taylor
  2. Vikings’ Alexander Mattison → The Vikings are 5th in projected points in a friendly matchup against the Lions, and Mattison had 26.0 and 20.0 expected half PPR points in starts. He’s 80% Dalvin Cook. … Kene Nwagnu (illness) was a Saturday addition to the injury report. He was expected to be Mattison’s backup.
  3. Bengals’ Joe Mixon
  4. Bucs’ Leonard Fournette
  5. Cardinals’ James Conner → Coming off a season-high 23.0 expected half PPR points, Conner also gets the return of Kyler Murray to add to his goal line opportunities. Chase Edmonds is at least one week away. The Bears are likely without Khalil Mack (IR), DT Akiem Hicks (out), and LB Roquan Smith (very questionable). Giddy up.
  6. Chargers’ Austin Ekeler
  7. Sony Michel → Darrell Henderson (veryquestionable) has started the week DNP-DNP with a quad strain before getting in a limited practice Friday. ESPN’s Lindsey Thiry noted that Henderson wasn’t out there during the open part of practice on Friday, so that limited tag could be very limited. … ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported on Sunday that the Rams are “not optimistic about him being able to play”. The leading Rams RB each week is averaging 14.1 half PPR per game. This is a better than average matchup, too.
  8. 49ers’ Eli Mitchell
  9. Washington’s Antonio Gibson → J.D. McKissic (concussion) is out, leaving Gibson with a potential bellcow role for the first time of 2021. Gibson is already the RB2 in fantasy usage over the last month after getting the bye to rest his fractured shin. The OL concern is real, but he has a legit RB1 workload right now. Wendall Smallwood is sliding into some version of the McKissic role with Jarret Patterson maintaining his usual backup between-tackles role.
  10. Falcons’ Cordarrelle Patterson → 79% of his offensive snaps in Week 12 came in the backfield now that Mike Davis has been phased out of the offense. That means Patterson goes head on with the №4 fantasy RB, №5 rushing EPA, and №1 neutral pass rate defense this week.
  11. Steelers’ Najee Harris
  12. Broncos’ Javonte Williams → Oh baby. The moment we’ve been waiting for. Melvin Gordon (hip) is doubtful, leaving Williams with scat/special teamer Mike Boone as the primary touch competition. The Broncos RBs are averaging 21.9 combined expected half PPR points this season, and I project Williams for about 75% of the RB touches. The matchup is so-so, as Denver could effectively run the ball on Kansas City but there are game script concerns. Anywhere on the RB1/2 border is fair to me. Remember, the Broncos are projected for the fifth-fewest points of the week.
  13. Lions’ Jamaal Williams → The lead back for the Lions, typically D’Andre Swift, is averaging 15.8 half PPR points on 15.2 expected half PPR points per game. Per Graham Barfield, Williams played 74% of the snaps following Swift’s Week 12 injury. The Vikings defense, missing EDGE1 Danielle Hunter and EDGE2 Everson Griffen, is last in rushing EPA and 24th against fantasy running backs.
  14. Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliott → Noise is noise. Zeke wasn’t listed on the final injury report after a week of full practices. His expected half PPR points are 3.1 lower after the bye because of his ongoing knee issues, but he’s still been an upside RB2 (12.3 half PPR per game) over this timeframe. New Orleans’ highly-rated run defense is without three edge rushers and a defensive tackle right now.
  15. Saints’ Mark Ingram → Alvin Kamara (knee) is reportedly out, and Ingram got in full practices all week. The veteran had 19.7 and 18.8 expected half PPR points in his two starts in New Orleans. It could be an inefficient day in general with the Saints missing LT Terron Armstead and RT Ryan Ramcszyk, but the top-15 volume will be there.
  16. Bears’ David Montgomery
  17. Chiefs’ Clyde Edwards-Helaire → In his rushed return before the bye, Edwards-Helaire started, played 47% snaps, and had 9.3 expected half PPR points. That’s the floor and he has a RB1 ceiling with the Chiefs projected for the most points of the week (30.75). In fact, the leading Chiefs RB is averaging 13.4 half PPR points per game this year and CEH has 17.9, 18.4, and 14.6 half PPR points in his last three healthy starts. It’s possible that Darrel Williams plays more passing downs still (25 to 16 Week 11 routes), but CEH is unquestionably the better rusher. He’s averaging 2.2 yards after contact per carry to Williams’ 1.4, and his forced missed tackle rate sits at 13% to Williams 4%. Update: CEH (questionable) is expected to play despite going DNP on Friday with the stomach flu.
  18. Raiders’ Josh Jacobs
  19. Giants’ Saquon Barkley → Arguably not fully healthy yet, Saquon has had 8.6 & 11.4 expected half PPR points since his ankle sprain. The Giants offensive line is a stone-cold disaster, resulting in a ridiculous 17.75-point team total this week.
  20. Dolphins’ Myles Gaskin → Over the last month, Gaskin is the RB6 in usage and the RB18 in half PPR per game. It’s clear Miami is looking for running back upgrades after adding Philip Lindsay (doubtful) and Duke Johnson this month, so the bottom could fall out at any moment, but Miami is 5.0-point home favorites with a serviceable 22.75-point team total.
  21. Jaguars’ James Robinson (questionable) → He hasn’t had quite the same usage recently. He was averaging 47.3 snaps in the six games before his injury and 35 snaps in the three games since, which has dropped his fantasy usage to RB21 over the last month. Playing the Rams in L.A. isn’t going to help.
  22. Eagles’ Miles Sanders
  23. Texans’ Rex Burkhead → With Lindsay out, Burkhead has had 11.2 & 8.2 expected half PPR points in the last two weeks. David Johnson (questionable) didn’t practice all week with thigh/illness issues. Burkhead could find himself in a surprisingly large workload against the Colts.
  24. Patriots’ Damien Harris → Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are rotating drives with the veteran starting each half, and Brandon Bolden is playing most passing situations, including the two-minute drill. Even in New England’s run-heavy offense, it’s tough to stomach a three-back committee. Harris has 5.7 and 10.2 expected half PPR points in his two most recent games after his concussion.
  25. Ravens’ Devonta Freeman
  26. Cowboys’ Tony Pollard
  27. Jets’ Tevin Coleman → 0% of Austin Walter’s touches came in garbage time and Walter handled both of the Jets’ Week 12 inside the five-yard line touches, but Coleman still started, had 17 touches, and racked up 10.9 expected half PPR points. It’s going to be a committee in New York all year.
  28. Patriots’ Rhamondre Stevenson → He’s had 7.1 and 7.9 expected half PPR points in the two games since Harris’ return despite two huge wins. Now 3.0-point road dogs, it’s hard to trust Stevenson.
  29. Chiefs’ Darrel Williams
  30. Rams’ Darrell Henderson (questionable)→ It’s been a minute, but Henderson’s underlying metrics last week were strong (14.0 expected half PPR points on 81% snaps) and the Rams are projected for the most plays and second-most points of the week. … The problem is this quad strain. He’s been DNP-DNP to start the week. Not good. Pick up Sony Michel.

Week 13 WR Fantasy Rankings

  1. Rams’ Cooper Kupp
  2. Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill
  3. Vikings’ Justin Jefferson
  4. Steelers’ Diontae Johnson → He’s leading the NFL with 3.9 yards per route run against man coverage, a defense the Ravens use at the third-highest rate. Johnson is also first in fantasy usage over the last month.
  5. Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb → Saints slot corner Chauncy Gardner-Johnson is on injured reserve. If Amari Cooper (COVID symptoms) is a decoy, Lamb could really eat on Thursday Night Football.
  6. Chargers’ Keenan Allen
  7. Bills’ Stefon Diggs
  8. Bucs’ Chris Godwin
  9. Bucs’ Mike Evans
  10. Vikings’ Adam Thielen
  11. Ravens’ Marquise Brown → Steelers CB1 Joe Haden (foot) remains out.
  12. Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase → The difference between Chase’s fire start and his recent skid have been deep target receptions. He’s such a baller and has WR13 fantasy usage over the last month, so a big game is inevitable, but Week 13 will be a challenge. The Chargers are 2nd against fantasy WRs this year because they have the lowest neutral pass rate allowed in their two-high shell, and Chase’s YPRR drops from 3.8 to 2.1 when going from man to zone defense. The Chargers are 10th in zone defense rate.
  13. Washington’s Terry McLaurin
  14. 49ers’ Brandon Aiyuk → This isn’t a perfect sample, but Aiyuk averaged 2.3 more full PPR points on 4.6 more expected full PPR points in games without Deebo Samuel (out) last year per Rotoworld me. Aiyuk, an elite athlete, can handle some of the manufactured touches that Samuel was receiving.
  15. Colts’ Michael Pittman
  16. Bears’ Darnell Mooney → He’s had 17.1 and 11.3 expected half PPR points in the two games without Allen Robinson and with Andy Dalton this year. That’s raised his fantasy usage ranking to WR11 over the last month. Chasing points at home against Arizona is not so bad. There’s no Marquise Goodwin this week, too.
  17. Dolphins’ Jaylen Waddle → It’s hard to drop him much because he’s so explosive, but Waddle’s expected half PPR points drop from 12.1 without DeVante Parker in the lineup (7 games) to 10.2 with him healthy (5 games). Parker is expected back this week.
  18. Chargers’ Mike Williams
  19. Seahawks’ D.K. Metcalf
  20. Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett
  21. Steelers’ Chase Claypool → Quietly the WR7 in fantasy usage over the last month, Claypool gets a decent home matchup against a banged-up Baltimore secondary. The Ravens are 3rd in man coverage rate, and Claypool’s yards per route run jumps from 2.1 against zone to 2.7 against man. Most believe that CB1 Marlon Humphrey will primary be on Diontae Johnson, allowing Claypool (6'4/227) to face fill-in CB2 Anthony Averett (5'11/178).
  22. Texans’ Brandin Cooks
  23. Raiders’ Hunter Renfrow → Since Henry Ruggs’ release, Renfrow is the WR17 per game on WR19 fantasy usage. He’s an option route killer who ran a route on 39-of-49 Week 12 dropbacks. Renfrow is low-key nasty right now.
  24. Eagles’ DeVonta Smith
  25. Bengals’ Tee Higgins
  26. Rams’ Odell Beckham (questionable)→ Ian Rapoport said Odell’s status (hip) is “up in the air” after some DNPs in practice, but Sean McVay said that he would be surprised if Beckham were unable to play. He ran a route on 41-of-42 dropbacks in Week 12 and the Rams are projected to score 30.0 points at home against the Jaguars, who are 27th against fantasy receivers, so if he’s available, he’s a good play. We’ll have to follow news.
  27. Cardinals’ Christian Kirk → Kyler Murray is expected to play for the first time since Week 8. Here are the Cardinals’ WR expected half PPR points with Murray this season: Hopkins (10.3), Green (8.1), Kirk (7.9), and Moore (6.8). Of course, now there’s Zach Ertz in the mix. This ranking assumes Hopkins is somewhat limited by his hamstring injury.
  28. Cardinals’ DeAndre Hopkins (questionable) → When asked about his hamstring injury, Nuk said, “I’m gonna go out and give it a go before the game”, meaning he’s a legit game-time decision after going limited-limited-DNP this week. The expectation is that he’ll be active, but “Kingsbury spoke of ‘being smart’ with Hopkins. Because of the cold, the expected rain and the layoff, he will be probably limited to a snap count.” I’m projecting him for 25–50% routes. That’s enough to get some high-value targets and hope for upside. The downside risk is obvious.
  29. Rams’ Van Jefferson
  30. Cowboys’ Michael Gallup → If we knew Amari Cooper (COVID recovery) was going to have a full-time role this week, I’d move Gallup further down the list. But this report suggest Cooper isn’t going to play much.
  31. Jets’ Elijah Moore → The rookie ran a route on 30-of-31 Week 12 dropbacks, leading to 11.6 expected half PPR points. He’s now the WR17 in fantasy usage over the last month, but Moore will have to overcome Zach Wilson and Darius Slay (PFF’s CB3 this year) to be a fantasy asset this week. Philly is third-best against fantasy receivers. It’s possible that Corey Davis (groin) returns after going DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. Moore would need to be downgraded a bit if Davis is active.
  32. Broncos’ Jerry Jeudy → Denver is 29th in neutral pace, 24th in neutral pass rate, and 25th in projected points this year. Kansas City is 8th against fantasy receivers, and Jeudy is only the WR31 in fantasy usage over the last month while almost exclusively playing the slot in 3-WR sets. The environment is holding him back.
  33. Falcons’ Russell Gage → Facing the league’s most pass-funneling defense, Gage’s WR38 fantasy usage seems near his floor for Week 13. Gage is the WR37 per game over the last month despite the Falcons’ deep-routed struggles.
  34. Cardinals’ A.J. Green
  35. Giants’ Kenny Golladay → Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney are doubtful. The flex options at receiver this week are absolute garbage.
  36. Patriots’ Jakobi Meyers
  37. Bills’ Cole Beasley
  38. Cardinals’ Rondale Moore
  39. Ravens’ Rashod Bateman → Unfortunately averaging 7.2 expected half PPR points in the last three games with Sammy Watkins. He only ran a route on 23-of-40 Week 12 dropbacks while Devin Duvernay mixes in for schemed touches behind the line of scrimmage.
  40. Dolphins’ DeVante Parker (questionable) → Will Fuller is still sidelined, but Parker is back at practice. He’s averaged 10.2 half PPR points on 11.3 expected half PPR points in five healthy games this year. That’s flex-worthy production and usage if we can confirm he won’t be on a snap count in his return.
  41. Jaguars’ Marvin Jones
  42. Jaguars’ Laviska Shenault → Back in the slot without Swagnew, Shenault set a season-high with 13.6 expected half PPR points in Week 12. He should be more productive down the stretch, but Jalen Ramsey awaits Shenault in the slot this week.
  43. Bills’ Emmanuel Sanders
  44. Broncos’ Courtland Sutton
  45. Jets’ Corey Davis (questionable) → He’s surprisingly expected to play now, but he has injury risk, now battles for targets with Elijah Moore, and faces the №3 defense against fantasy WRs.
  46. Saints’ Tre’Quan Smith
  47. Broncos’ Tim Patrick
  48. Patriots’ Kendrick Bourne → He’s been very good, but Bourne is still behind Meyers and Agholor in routes run and has been banking on fluky touchdowns and yards after the catch to fill out the box score. He’s the WR55 in fantasy usage over the last month.
  49. Bengals’ Tyler Boyd → The WR68 in fantasy usage over the last month, the oly reason why I rank Boyd inside the top 50 is the Chargers’ two-high zone defense plays to Boyd’s strengths on paper. He’s averaging 1.3 YPRR against man and 1.7 YPRR against zone this year per Sports Info Solutions.
  50. Colts’ T.Y. Hilton → He’s playing behind Zach Pascal in 2-WR sets right now, but there’s no way I was leaving Hilton off the top-50 list against the Texans. He’s averaging 99.2 yards in 18 career games against Houston if we remove his game with just 37% snaps.
  51. Cowboys’ Amari Cooper (questionable) → Officially questionable to play with “reserve/covid activation”, Cooper was limited on Wednesday ahead of Thursday Night Football. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport said “have to wonder about his conditioning, though, and how close to 100% he’ll be”, which lines up with previous pessimism about his Week 13 availability. It’s possible he is active but is on a snap count or less effective in general.

Week 13 TE Fantasy Rankings

  1. Chiefs’ Travis Kelce
  2. Ravens’ Mark Andrews
  3. Bucs’ Rob Gronkowski → In fully healthy games, Gronk is averaging 15.3 half PPR points on 11.9 expected half PPR points. He made plays down the seam and after the catch in the flats last week. Insane stuff.
  4. 49ers’ George Kittle → The TE12 in fantasy usage since his return, Kittle has a better receiving outlook sans-Deebo Samuel (groin) this week. Samuel leaves behind 11.0 expected half PPR points per game to be mostly divvied up between Juwan Jennings, Aiyuk, and Kittle.
  5. Lions’ T.J. Hockenson → Goff has the lowest aDOT (6.2 yards downfield) of any Week 13 starting quarterback, and Hockenson won’t have to compete for targets with D’Andre Swift (6.4 targets per game) this week. Across the season, Hockenson is the TE8 on TE9 fantasy usage per game.
  6. Falcons’ Kyle Pitts
  7. Eagles’ Dallas Goedert → Going from Hurts to Minshew is a win for Goedert, who has had a TE1 target share since the Ertz trade. That just hasn’t translated to fantasy points yet because the Eagles have been so run heavy. That could change today.
  8. Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth (questionable) → In the five games since the post-bye rookie bump, Freiermuth is averaging 11.6 half PPR points on 11.5 expected half PPR points. With Eric Ebron and JuJu Smith-Schuster on IR, he’s become the Steelers’ №3 target.
  9. Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki → The slot TE’s expected half PPR points have dropped by 1.6 in games with DeVante Parker in the lineup. He could slide back towards the TE1/2 border once Parker is fully healthy.
  10. Cowboys’ Dalton Schultz
  11. Bills’ Dawson Knox
  12. Raiders’ Foster Moreau
  13. Cardinals’ Zach Ertz
  14. Bears’ Cole Kmet
  15. Rams’ Tyler Higbee
  16. Washington’s Logan Thomas
  17. Broncos’ Noah Fant
  18. Seahawks’ Gerald Everett
  19. Patriots’ Hunter Henry
  20. Vikings’ Tyler Conklin

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