Week 2 Fantasy Blueprint
A one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
The 8 categories will all be 2020 data to start, but I’ll begin adding 2021 data gradually using a sliding scale weighing this year’s data more heavily as the season continues. “Offensive Pace” is Football Outsiders’ neutral offensive pace (for both offenses), so this defensive bar is the only exception where we want the bar to actually be tall. “Sack Rate” is Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, so this helps for finding OL/DL mismatches and defensive streaming. “Pass Efficiency” and “Rush Efficiency” is NFLfastR’s EPA per play. The “FPPG” stats are half PPR points per game for that position.
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The Buccaneers are the offense of the week. I truly think Tom Brady for MVP tickets are alive with this stacked roster in a weak NFC. … The Chargers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bills, Rams, Browns, Chiefs, Packers, and Cowboys are the other strong fantasy football units heading into Week 2. I’ll preview all of them below.
1. Buccaneers (32.0 implied points, -12 spread) vs. ATL
My favorite MVP bet at odds, Tom Brady lit up Week 1 after soul-taking teams after the Week 13 bye last year. The Falcons (32nd vs. QBs) just let the Eagles go nuts, and now Atlanta is on the road. Brady, who had 394–4–1 and 390–3–0 lines against the Dirty Birds in 2020, could have another 300–3 game behind PFF’s №1 pass-blocking OL of Week 1. The talent at every non-RB position for Tampa Bay is truly unfair.
All three Bucs WRs are firmly inside the top-30 against last year’s worst defense against WRs. Since the Bucs’ Week 13 bye week including playoffs, here are the pass-catcher’s half PPR points: Antonio Brown (14.0), Chris Godwin (13.5), Mike Evans (11.4), and Rob Gronkowski (9.5). … Brown isn’t playing in the few 2-WR sets, but he’s been peppered with targets in 3-WR sets and seems rejuvenated under Brady’s watch. Brown, an upside WR3, was the WR20 in fantasy usage on the seventh-most targets in Week 1. … Evans will bounce back after a quiet opener, although he gets the most-difficult individual CB matchup against A.J. Terrell. Evans is no worse than on the WR2/3 border. … Godwin gets a cupcake on the inside against Isaiah Oliver, who he ate for 4–36–1 and 5–133–2 last year. He’s an upside WR2 who was third in fantasy usage in Week 1. … Rob Gronkowski ran a route on 74% of Week 1 dropbacks and finished as the TE1 overall of the week on TE3 overall fantasy usage. He looked awesome on tape and even was 4th in YPRR vs. man coverage among TEs last year. Gronk is back in our lives as a low-end TE1. Atlanta was cooked for the third-most fantasy points against the position last year and lost their strong safety this offseason.
Ronald Jones was benched for a fumble, leaving Leonard Fournette with 65% of the season-opening snaps. Both will come off the field in passing situations with sorta Giovani Bernard in the mix, but there’s room for RB2/3 production if either can separate on early downs and in the red zone. Bruce Arians said RoJo will start Week 2 and is “ready to roll”. That feels extremely fragile, especially after the front office gave Fournette $3M this offseason. Those starting Jones or Fournette here know what they’re getting themselves into — either close to 0 points or a top-10 RB finish. The Bucs are 12-point home favorites.
2. Browns (30.25, -12.5) vs. HOU
I was very impressed with the Browns in Week 1, and now they return home against the team projected for the fewest points of Week 2. Baker Mayfield has 3-touchdown upside against the №28 passing EPA defense, but play volume is always a concern in their slow-paced, run-heavy offense as 12.5-point favorites. Mayfield will need 2–3 scores, not volume, to be an upside QB2 play. I like his odds.
No Odell Beckham (ACL) leaves Jarvis Landry as an upside WR2. He’s averaging 6.4-69–0.6 receiving on 8.4 targets in his last eight games without OBJ. Landry faces veteran CB Desmond King (1-year, $3.5M) in the slot and gets a boost as the underneath option in DC Lovie Smith’s Cover 2 zone defense, which historically shoves excess targets near the line of scrimmage. … With the Browns’ 2-TE usage, the only fantasy-relevant option is 2-WR set starter Donovan Peoples-Jones. He did nothing despite running a route on 82% of Week 1 dropbacks. The floor is 0. The ceiling is a long score. … Third-round rookie Anthony Schwartz was the WR57 in fantasy usage in the opener while playing ahead of Rashard Higgins and behind DPJ. … Week 1 routes: David Njoku (16-of-33), Austin Hooper (14). That renders both useless in most season-long formats.
Nick Chubb (the best rushing RB in the NFL) is playing the Houston Texans this week. You know what to do. … Game script goes against Kareem Hunt here with Cleveland projected to win by 12.5 points at home, but he had two goal-line touches in the opener and can still get there as an RB2/3. There will be plenty of carries to go around, and the Browns were PFF’s №1 run-blocking OL of Week 1 and of 2020. Houston in Week 1? 29th in run-defense.
Update: RT Jedrick Wills (ankle) is questionable, but he didn’t practice this week. Center J.C. Tretter (knee) has better odds of playing after a limited practice on Friday. He’s listed as questionable. Thankfully the Texans are on the schedule.
3. Chiefs (29.75, -4) @ BAL
Patrick Mahomes has played the Ravens three times. He’s balled out against the Ravens three times: 385–4, 374–3, and 373–2. Baltimore is also without CB1 Marcus Peters and reshuffled their edge rushers this offseason, while the Chiefs upgraded multiple spots along the offensive line. Mahomes is the QB1 overall for me.
Tyreek Hill is averaging 116 yards on 11 targets over his last 12 games. He might be good. … After a 1.08 YPPR preseason featuring a ball pegged in the back of his head when he wasn’t paying attention, Mecole Hardman was the WR102 in fantasy usage in Week 1 despite running a route on 84% of dropbacks. His 3 targets resulted in one (1) air yard, and only happened because of two schemed targets (a screen and beneath route). There will be big-plays in this offense (boom-bust WR5) but Hardman doesn’t look like an NFL route runner in his third year. … Demarcus Robinson is a 3-WR set starter. That’s the only positive. … Travis Kelce has at least 6 catches and 77 yards in his three games against Baltimore with Mahomes. The only player in the TE1 discussion is Darren Waller.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire will never be an explosive player. Yes, he can be elusive in space, but a lot of his production will be schemed up. The good news is that he played 72% of the snaps, handled a goal-line carry, and ran a route on 67% of dropbacks in the opener. That’s how he finishes as a top-12 RB. … Darrel Williams played ahead of Jerick McKinnon in the opener as CEH’s backup.
4. Packers (29.75, -11) vs. DET
I refuse to pay attention to the Packers’ Week 1 performance. As you can see in the chart above, the Packers have been the №1 passing EPA offense since 2020 and the Lions had been dead last in passing EPA defense, plus placed CB1 Jeff Okudah (achilles) on injured reserve this week. If Aaron Rodgers doesn’t bounce back here, then he just might be on the weeeeeeeeeed.
Davante Adams is in an eruption spot against 2019 5th-rounder Amani Oruwariy and Ifeatu Melifonwu, this year’s 101st overall pick. That triggers a “Rookie CB Alert” for last year’s WR1 overall. … Marquez Valdes-Scantling is The Fantasy Usage Model’s biggest positive regression candidate of the week. He was the WR29 in fantasy usage on 156 air yards, the sixth-most at the position in Week 1. The CB matchup doesn’t get easier than this. … Allen Lazard ran a route on 28-of-33 dropbacks as the primary slot player ahead of Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers. … Robert Tonyan only ran a route on 59% of dropbacks and was the TE25 in fantasy usage last week. Not a great sign for a player who led the NFL in touchdowns over expected in 2020. He was already a negative regression candidate.
Aaron Jones is averaging 14.6 PPR points in 17 games with Davante Adams since 2020. There is a lot of competition for snaps (A.J. Dillon) and targets on this team, so Jones needs to be a highly-efficient player to live up to Round 1 expectations. He’ll be on the RB1/2 border as massive 11-point home favorites against the №31 fantasy RB defense. It’s officially time to panic if he doesn’t go to the moon here. … This game will be a great indicator if Dillon has any RB3 appeal this season, or if he’s purely a handcuff.
5. Chargers (29.5, -3.5) vs. DAL
Justin Herbert’s size and arm talent will make a boomer scout’s toes curl, and now he has the supporting cast to unlock it all. After upgrading the OL at 3 spots this offseason, Herbert was kept clean on the highest percentage of his dropbacks of any Week 1 quarterback and that happened in Washington. The Cowboys are without EDGE1 Demarcus Lawrence (foot) and EDGE2 Randy Gregory, and got lit up by Tom Brady in the opener. Herbert has top-5 appeal.
Keenan Allen is averaging 8.5 receptions with Herbert and the matchup here is a piece of cake. Similarly-skilled slot man Chris Goodwin just nuked the Cowboys. … Mike Williams was the WR48 in best ball early on. That’s fucking nuts. In a more friendly role that features more intermediate targets (think Michael Thomas), Williams has upside WR2/3 appeal already after securing a career-high 8 receptions last week. The contract-year X-receiver was the WR8 in fantasy usage. … Jalen Guyton played ahead of Josh Palmer in Week 1. That could change later. … 2-of-8 Jared Cook targets came in the red zone last week, leading to TE4 overall fantasy usage. That’s unlikely to stick given his 64% route rate, but he has classic TD-or-Bust TE2 usage. He still plays most of his snaps detached from the offensive line.
After a hamstring scare in practice, Austin Ekeler played on just 54% of the Week 1 snaps. He wasn’t targeted, but I’m just chalking that up to injury and matchup. Ekeler has RB1 upside if his hamstring isn’t an issue long-term, especially after handling two inside-the-five touches in the opener. That’s just the 7th time of his career that he’s done that. Chargers OC Joe Lombardi used Alvin Kamara at the goal-line. Signs suggest that is carrying over to LA. … Larry Rountree is Ekeler’s plodding complement.
6. Seahawks (29.25, -5) vs. TEN
The Seahawks were 12th in neutral pace and 25th in neutral pass rate under OC Shane Waldron. They were 22nd and 5th respectively last year. It’s hard to take too much from Week 1 after Russell Wilson had multiple long TDs and ran up the score early. Overall, Seattle looked sharp and catch a dreamy home matchup in Week 2 against the №29 passing EPA and №31 adjusted sack rate defense. Wilson is a mid-range QB1 with the Hawks projected for the sixth-most points of the week (29.25).
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett each had a 22% target share in the opener and offer a boom-bust WR1/2 profile weekly at the worst when they’re healthy. Lockett wasn’t late last year when he became inconsistent. The Titans were 30th against fantasy WRs and got shelled by Hopkins and Kirk in Week 1. … Dee Eskridge (concussion) is questionable. … Week 1 routes: Will Dissly (19-of-31), Gerald Everett (18). That leaves the latter in the TD-or-Bust TE2 range.
Chris Carson played 78% of the snaps with Rashaad Penny (calf) hobbled and looked the part behind a quietly-decent run-first offensive line. Carson has RB2 upside with Tennessee’s defense ranking 26th against fantasy RBs and 22nd in rushing EPA. He’s averaging 97.5 total yards in career wins. Seattle is 5-point home favorites.
7. Cardinals (27.25, -3.5) vs. MIN
Kyler Murray has been the QB1 overall when he hasn’t been battling through his shoulder injury since the beginning of 2020. The Cardinals have elite neutral offensive pace and now could match with above-average efficiency behind a more experienced OL and four-deep WR room. Murray should have few issues against Minnesota’s №23 passing EPA defense, a unit that was eaten up by the hobbled Joe Burrow’s in Week 1.
Update: Vikings LB2 Anthony Barr (knee), LT1 Christian Darrisaw (groin), DE2 Everson Griffen (concussion), and depth CB Harrison Hand (hamstring) are all out. LB1 Eric Kendricks (quad) is questionable but should play after a full practice Friday.
DeAndre Hopkins remains a left outside receiver only, but that storyline is almost as overrated as the switching teams narrative. Nuk was the WR6 per game in 2020 and the WR7 overall in Week 1. He’ll do battle against 2020 teammate Patrick Peterson. … A.J. Green ran a route on 86% of dropbacks and earned a quality 19% target share in the opener. The issue was that he finished 98th out of 104 WR qualifiers in fantasy points over expected while converting just 25-of-53 air yards into production. He’s a boom-bust WR5 in a great environment. It’s the Dust Bowl between Green and Baushad Breeland here. … Christian Kirk was moved back into the slot after a tough season on the perimeter. He started and ran more routes (62% of dropbacks) than second-round rookie Rondale Moore (38%), who was basically only targeted on designed stuff near the line of scrimmage (4.8 aDOT). Kirk is a sell high candidate. He scored the third-most points over expected in Week 1, and Moore’s role should increase as the season progresses.
Chase Edmonds played slightly more snaps (58%) than James Conner (49%) in Week 1. This should be a clearly-defined two-back committee with Edmonds playing on more passing downs (67% route rate) and Conner in on short-yardage. The 230-pounder entered the game near the goal-line last week. Edmonds is the slightly-better RB2/3 bet after finishing as the RB21 in fantasy usage against the Titans. Conner was 26th.
8. 49ers (26.75, -3.5) @ PHI
Pending injury, I think Jimmy Garoppolo will start through the Week 6 bye after learning that Trey Lance is operating as the scout team quarterback in practice. Garoppolo has QB2 potential in the 49ers’ top-10 projected offense, but Lance is a legitimate goal-line package threat (4-of-55 snaps Week 1). It’s a very boom-bust situation.
Brandon Aiyuk only ran a route on 54% of Week 1 dropbacks. Kyle Shanahan said Aiyuk’s hamstring injury and overall play in training camp costed him snaps to coaching-staff favorite Trent Sherfield (50% route rate). Aiyuk should separate from the lesser-talented Sherfield, but his Week 2 projection is extremely volatile. And quite frankly, unknown. Take the flex risk if you have no other options. … That chaos is good news for Deebo Samuel, Week 1’s WR3 overall on WR9 fantasy usage. He was a full-time player and handled a (unsustainable) league-high 46% target share. Samuel has high-end YAC ability when healthy, and projects well against Philly’s №24 fantasy WR defense as an upside WR2/3. … George Kittle only ran a route on 16-of-28 dropbacks (57%) and will need to have truly elite efficiency to be worthy of a Round 3 pick this year with far more target competition in the offense. The Eagles’ worrisome LB group is a plus matchup for Kittle.
Nobody in the fantasy industry knows what will happen in the 49ers’ backfield this week. Eli Mitchell apparently took Trey Sermon’s early-down job in practice last week despite being behind him all offseason and throughout the pre-draft process. All of Mitchell’s Week 1 touches were on first- or second-downs, so Sermon (who will be active per Shanahan this week) could take over on third downs after special-teamer JaMycal Hasty botched multiple pass protection reps. That passing-down role isn’t a fantasy-friendly one in this run-first offense, however. It all comes down to Mitchell versus Sermon on early downs and near the goal-line. Hopefully the beat reporters find out the pecking order in pre-game warmups. Whoever the starter is a boom-bust RB2.
9. Steelers (26.25, -5.5) vs. LV
Only Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson had a lower completion percentage over expected than Ben Roethlisberger (-10.1) in the opener. Big Ben’s arm strength looks fully dusted, as evidenced by his 4.6 average depth of target in clean pockets (29th of 31) per Sports Info Solutions. Roethlisberger can still get there as a QB2 in plus matchups given his stud receivers, however, and the Raiders rank 27th in passing EPA, 29th in adjusted sack rate, and 24th against fantasy QBs since 2020. The Steelers are projected to score 26.25 points (9th) at home.
We have chaos at receiver still. JuJu Smith-Schuster ran more routes (38-of-38) than Diontae Johnson (32 with a slight injury) and Chase Claypool (31). Johnson was the most-involved (WR15 in fantasy usage) but had a classic 3.6 YPT. Claypool was the flashiest and best downfield target but unfortunately remained in the №3 receiver role in terms of snaps. A Najee Harris-induced drop in neutral pass rate will not be pretty for all three of these receivers. For Week 2, the matchup is obviously strong for everyone. Vegas was 20th against fantasy receivers in 2020 and gave up 6–69–1 and 4–96–0 to Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins last Monday night. … Week 1 routes: Eric Ebron (17-of-38), Pat Freiermuth (12). That renders both largely useless in fantasy.
Najee Harris played 100% of the snaps. He also was dead last in fantasy points over expected, meaning he was the least-efficient RB of Week 1. Both sides were correct in Harris’ rookie-year outlook it appears. If Harris can’t find more room against the №28 rushing EPA and №29 fantasy RB defense, then I’ll be worried. He’s on a low-end RB1 entering the game for me. Ravens RBs had 93 rushing yards and two scores last week against Vegas.
10. Cowboys (26.0, +3.5) @ LAC
Dak Prescott was uncharacteristically inaccurate early on in Week 1, but he settled in later and ultimately hung massive numbers in a tough spot. This week he’ll trade Michael Gallup (calf) for All-Pro RG Zach Martin in another projected shootout featuring two offenses with top-10 neutral pace. Prescott’s league-leading neutral pass rate (85%, see below) and elite weaponry give him top-5 potential weekly, even against an upgraded defensive unit for Brandon Staley.
Update: RT La’El Collins is out, as is his backup Ty Nsehke (heat-related illness). The Cowboys will start a third-stringer against Joey Bosa.
CeeDee Lamb (WR1 overall) and Amari Cooper (WR2 overall) were Fantasy Usage Model super stars in the opener, and should remain so for as long as Gallup is out. They are both no-brainer WR1s with the target tree trimmed. Dallas is projected to score the 10th most points of Week 2. … Cedrick Wilson is expected to start in 3-WR sets and has primarily played in the slot for the Boys, which could push Lamb outside more often (which is largely irrelevant). The 2018 sixth-rounder out of Boise State has the collegiate production of a deep-league sleeper now that he’s starting in the league’s pass-heaviest offense. OC Kellen Moore said that “Ced will step right in there. No issues. No concerns. He’s the utility guy.” … Week 1 routes: Dalton Schultz (42-of-69), Blake Jarwin (40). Aside from missing some key blocks, neither were major contributors. That could change with more 2-TE sets expected sans-Gallup. The Cowboys’ wallet suggest they want Jarwin to emerge. We’ll see if he can post-ACL.
Update: Chargers CB2 Chris Harris (shoulder) is out. FS1 Nasir Adderley (groin) is questionable after going DNP, DNP, limited this week. Slight boosts for the Cowboys WRs.
Ezekiel Elliott was fucked in Week 1 against the league’s best rushing defense without RG Zach Martin to open things up. His box score production was awful and he should’ve scored near the goal-line in a 1-on-1 opportunity. But everything else was totally fine. He played 83% of the snaps, and he ran a route on 73% of dropbacks (the rest of the time he was opening up big plays as a legit pass protector). Ultimately, Zeke should rebound (now that he’s lighter and arguably more explosive). This is a better environment for fantasy points. He’s a top-6 back.
11. Bills (25.75, -3.5) @ MIA
The Bills were 2nd in neutral pass rate and 3rd in neutral pace in the opener, basically the same as last year. Josh Allen just missed some throws he was hitting in 2020. I’m not very concerned because the offensive structure is elite and Allen literally led the NFL in on-target rate in clean pockets last year. Allen’s matchup this week won’t be easy, but he’s still a top-6 option at the very least. In his two games against Miami last year, he had 415–4 and 224–3 (before being pulled early in Week 17).
In those same games, Stefon Diggs had 8–153–1 and 7–76 (before being pulled early in Week 17). That’s not a surprise, as he was the WR4 in yards per route run versus man coverage last year and the Dolphins are a man-heavy defense. As for the season opener, Diggs was just unlucky. He was top-5 in air yards, targets, and red zone targets among WRs. … Cole Beasley ran a route on 98% of dropbacks, was targeted 13 times, and finished as the WR11 in fantasy usage in Week 1. Beasley had PPR WR3 potential in this unique offense. Beasley fares better against zone defenses, but the volume keeps him in the flex mix this week. … Emmanuel Sanders was the WR30 in fantasy usage and ran a route on 94% of dropbacks. That’s flex-level usage. If Allen would’ve hit Sanders on a deep go-route that should’ve been a touchdown, we’d be very excited for Sanders in fantasy. … Gabriel Davis scored a touchdown and had a big catch on a broken play. But he ran a route on 60% of dropbacks, was the WR45 in usage, and handled a 10% target share. He’s a bench hold, almost like a handcuff. … Dawson Knox is a sub-50% route runner now. Nope.
Update: Gabriel Davis (hamstring) is questionable. He was limited on Thursday and Friday, so I’d bet he’s playing.
We’ll see if Zack Moss is healthy-scratched again, but Devin Singletary has some flex appeal if so. He had a career-high 64 snaps and handled an inside 5-yard opportunity as a mini bellcow back ahead of Matt Breida. That led to RB18 usage and RB27 half PPR production in the 2021 kick-off. Neither Moss or Singletary are fantasy starters if both are active.
12. Ravens (25.75, +4) vs. KC
The Ravens are massively injured on both sides of the ball. After reshuffling their offensive line, Lamar Jackson will suddenly be without LT Ronnie Stanley and LG Tyre Phillips (ACL) in addition to WR Rashod Bateman (IR), TE Nick Boyle (IR), and possibly Marquise Brown (questionable). Jackson faces an uphill battle for top-5 quarterback production right now, but he’s still the GOAT scrambler and designed rushing quarterback. That plays into the Chiefs’ defensive weakness. They are 31st in rushing EPA since 2020 and are starting two linebackers, Nick Bolton and Ben Niemman, who were gashed by the Ravens. PFF graded Kansas City as the worst rushing defense of Week 1.
This is good news for Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray, who split work quite evenly in the opener. Williams is far more explosive (RB3 in fantasy points over expected in Week 1), but his inexperience leaves Murray with projected work on passing downs and in pressure situations. Williams is a classic boom-bust flex play with 75–1 potential and a near-0 floor. Murray is wait-and-see.
Marquise Brown (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Sammy Watkins would be a de-facto flex play if Brown is out. He had a 95% route rate and WR33 fantasy usage in Week 1 while primarily playing out wide. #RevengeGame narratives apply to Watkins, but the Chiefs have been lights out against fantasy WRs under DC Steve Spagnuolo who dares teams to run against them. … Mark Andrews is the projected target leader here and is in a beautiful bounce-back spot as home dogs to the high-scoring Chiefs. He saw 7 and 8 targets against them in the most recent matchups, though he did next to nothing with them (3–22–0 and 3–15–0). He’s a top-5 TE.
Update: Marquise Brown (ankle) is questionable after getting in a limited practice on Friday. The same can be said for Devin Duvernay (groin). Even CB1 Marlon Humphrey is battling an injury and was limited all week. Baltimore is one of, if not, the most banged up teams in the NFL right now.
13. Broncos (25.5, -6) @ JAX
The matchup is obviously elite with Jacksonville’s defense ranking 31st in passing EPA and 29th against fantasy QBs since 2020. Teddy Bridgewater does face an uphill battle in general on this defensive-minded team with 26th neutral offensive pace. The matchup, the Broncos’ skill group, and Bridgewater’s Week 1 play are good enough to push him into low-end QB2 ranks.
No Jerry Jeudy has big impacts among the skill players. Tim Patrick, who was rotating in even before Jeudy’s late-game injury, becomes a near full-time player and 2-WR set starter on the outside next to Courtland Sutton. K.J. Hamler should play more snaps than he did in Week 1 (49% routes) now. All have an easier path to targets in general obviously. This trio can’t be trusted as WR3 plays, but there are upside paths if needing a flex gamble. Sutton’s 8% target share in Week 1 was uncharacteristically low, possibly because of his ACL. … Noah Fant is an ancillary beneficiary of Jeudy’s absence. He led the Broncos in fantasy usage (TE6 overall) last week (8 targets through 3 quarters) and arguably has top-5 real-life fantasy talent. Fant looks like a hit as the TE8 overall in best ball.
The Broncos are paying Melvin Gordon the 4th most money of any RB this year, and he just ripped off a massive TD in the opener. Javonte Williams’ RB2 szn is on pause for the foreseeable future, while they split snaps literally evenly (33-of-66 each). Williams (RB34 in fantasy usage) and Gordon (RB36) are low-end flex plays right now. Perhaps the Jaguars’ pathetic defense sparks a ceiling game from one of them.
Update: Broncos RG Graham Glasnow (illness) is doubtful.
14. Rams (25.5, -3.5) @ IND
The Rams were 1st in neutral pace and 3rd in neutral pass rate in Week 1. That’s how Matthew Stafford can break into the top-10 fantasy QBs this year. This week’s road matchup is pretty average against a slow-paced offense without their №1 corner Xavier Rhodes. Stafford belongs on the QB1/2 border with Los Angeles projected for the 14th most points of the week.
Cooper Kupp was half PPR’s WR12 on WR12 fantasy usage in Week 1 on a team-high 38% target share. His chemistry with Stafford is apparent, leaving Kupp with top-15 upside each week. The same case can be made for Robert Woods who had a forgettable opener for no reason other than NFL weirdness. The Colts’ two-high safety defense typically pushes targets underneath, playing into the strengths of Woods. I’ll have both inside the top-20 most weeks, including this one. … Van Jefferson had a long TD and ran a route on 86% of dropbacks. That’s elite for a late-round best ball pick. He’ll sub out occasionally for scripted plays to DeSean Jackson. … Tyler Higbee quietly is a massive winner of Week 1. He jumped from a 51% route rate in 2020 to a 93% participant in the opener with Gerald Everett out of the way. That leaves him with top-5 TE potential if the Rams offense is as sick as I think it’ll be. This week’s matchup is tough on paper (3rd vs. TEs), but LB Darius Leonard (ankle) didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday.
Update: Colts CB1 Xavier Rhodes (calf) is out. LB1 Darius Leonard (ankle, illness) is questionable after a limited practice Friday. DE2 Kwity Paye (hamstring) didn’t practice much either. They are very banged up.
Leonard playing injured or missing entirely would boost Darrell Henderson’s RB2 outlook. Sony Michel only played on 3 snaps last week as he learns the playbook. Henderson played the remaining 94% of snaps and was out in the route for most dropbacks. The Rams are likely to take him out of this bellcow role eventually, but it’s time to ride him in fantasy for now, especially with the OL healthy. PFF had the Rams as the №2 run-blocking line of Week 1.
15. Saints (24.25, -3.5) @ CAR
Lasik Jameis Winston was on fire in the opener and belongs in the QB2 conversation with the Saints projected for the 15th most points. There are plenty of injury concerns surrounding New Orleans, however, and the skill group looks very underwhelming in general. The Panthers young, improving defense is arguably underrated right now, at least compared to the stats shown above.
Marquez Callaway got the Jaire Alexander treatment in the opener, and Winston only attempted 20 passes. That’s not a good combo for production. He’ll fare much better in Week 2, but the floor is obviously low. Callaway ran a route on a team-high 22-of-24 dropbacks. … Deonte Harris was next in line but only ran a route on 15-of-24 dropbacks, leaving him with a 0-point floor. The Saints are basically using a gimmick offense right now, putting a lot of pressure on Sean Peyton. … Adam Trautman was the TE15 in fantasy usage while running a route on 78% of dropbacks. His primarily inline role limits his ceiling, but he has TE2 volume based on the opener. WR-to-TE convert Juwan Johnson found the box twice in Week 1. He did so 10 routes. I wouldn’t get carried away unless his route rate increases.
Promo Code Alvin Kamara is going to be a tank. His 20 carries last week were the second most of his career, and it doesn’t look like Tony Jones is going to mix in as much as Latavius Murray was in recent seasons. Kamara’s targets will increase after an outlier blowout win, leaving him as the RB2 overall arguably in a tier above Dalvin Cook and company. Kamara had 83 rushing yards and 8 receptions the last time he played Carolina.
16. Titans (25.25, +5) @ SEA
The Titans were unwatchable after going down big early, forcing them away from their league-leading play action rate. Perhaps OC Todd Downing is a legitimate problem for Tennessee, who dropped from 3rd in neutral pace last year to 30th in Week 1. Ryan Tannehill needs neutral game scripts and quality OL play to be highly efficient, both of which are of concern in Seattle against their improved front seven. Tannehill is more of an upside QB2 than must-play QB1.
A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will play better. Seattle lost CB1 Shaq Griffin in free agency and were already 27th against fantasy WRs last year. If Russ Wilson goes nuclear against the Titans defense, there should be plenty of production to go around for each. … Slot WR Chester Rodgers (34-of-44 routes) is just as good of a bet for production as slot TE Anthony Firkser (28), who can be dropped in most re-draft leagues. He was the TE32 in fantasy usage despite ideal game script for him last week. Remember, the only fantasy-relevant TEs play in both 2- and 3-WR sets. Firkser does not.
Derrick Henry was the sixth-least efficient RB of Week 1. He is at risk of falling back to the mid- to low-end RB1 mix if Downing doesn’t figure things out. The Big Dog has to be a cyborg rusher to overcome his lackluster passing-down work, and the Titans need leads to make that happen. I’m relatively worried here as 5-point road dogs against a front seven with high-end LB play and depth at all defensive line spots. I’ll rank him around RB7–10 this week.
17. Patriots (24.0, -6) @ NYJ
My first NFL impressions on Mac Jones were positive. He’s polished for a rookie, has always been accurate, and looked poised in the pocket (see clips below). The biggest negatives were taking the check-down instead of waiting for the deep route to get open, but it’s Week 1. We can live with that. For fantasy purposes, Jones likely needs the Patriots to pick up their neutral offensive pace (14th) and neutral pass rate (18th) to be in the QB2 mix. He’s on a low-end QB2 in a cupcake matchup here with the Pats projected for the 17th-most points.
Update: Starting RT Trent Brown (calf) is out.
Jakobi Meyers struggled to get things going in the opener, but he was the WR25 in fantasy usage on 9 targets and 63 air yards. Meyers will likely be better against zone-heavy defenses like the Jets. He’s a legit WR3/4 option versus the №30 passing EPA defense since 2020. … Nelson Agholor will be slightly more boom-bust than Meyers given his downfield role, but he’s clearly the Pats only downfield option (32% air yards share) and that gives him WR4 upside in matchups like this one. … Hunter Henry (54%) ran more routes on New England dropbacks than Jonnu Smith (44%) did in the opener, but Smith is a schemed-touch player who can be given screens, carries, and quick outs from multiple alignments. Both are upside TE2s who will get there in different ways. Henry is the inline option with a reasonable red zone projection.
Damien Harris’ fumble doesn’t scare me that much as long as it doesn’t happen again. His direct backup, a rookie, also fumbled and nearly got Mac’s ACL torn by blowing a blitz pickup. Harris’ 26 opportunities and RB10 overall fantasy usage were encouraging. Another 17–22 touches as 6-point favorites wouldn’t be a surprise at all. New England is averaging 128.3 yards and 1.3 touchdowns on the ground against the Jets across the last five years. I’ll take on the Harris risk as an RB2. … James White was half PPR’s RB30 on RB34 as a schemed-up player out of the backfield. That will be near his ceiling in most non-negative game script outings.
18. Vikings (23.75, +3.5) @ ARI
This is the most straight-forward fantasy offense there is. Let’s not waste too much time here. Minnesota is projected for the 18th-most points of Week 2, leaving Kirk Cousins in the mid- to low-end QB2 mix as usual.
Justin Jefferson didn’t come through in the box score, but his 9 targets and 136 air yards are WR1-level. A bounceback is in order with Arizona trotting out a 4th-round rookie and a 32-year-old vet who has played one game since 2018 at outside corner. That triggers a “Rookie CB Alert” for both Jefferson and Adam Thielen, who was the WR14 in fantasy usage on his way to two TDs in the opener. … Joining them in starting lineups is slot man K.J. Osborn, who will play more snaps than expected with Minnesota pivoting to more 3-WR sets following Irv Smith’s injury and Kyle Rudolph’s departure. Osborn can be picked up in the deepest of leagues. He was the WR30 in usage while chasing points last week. … Tyler Conklin was the only Viking TE to register a snap, but he only ran a route on 62% of dropbacks while helping the injured OL block. A plus-athlete with a starting job, Conklin will have random spiked weeks. I don’t know when they’ll happen, however.
After a top-2 finish last year, Dalvin Cook was the RB6 on RB6 fantasy usage while handling the third-most touches of the week. The Cardinals defense is better than anticipated after watching their Week 1 film, but volume and Cook’s own skill make him a must-play top-5 option every week.
19. Eagles (23.25, +3.5) vs. SF
Jalen Hurts looked pretty good in the opener and the Eagles were 3rd in neutral pass rate, too. That usage and his legs leave Hurts with top-6 upside weekly, but some of the passing seemed unsustainable. He had an aDOT of 2.9 yards in 30 dropbacks with a clean pocket per Sports Info Solutions (NFL avgerage = 7.5), and he bailed out of the pocket on a chunk of them. Hurts will be spied on by super star LB Fred Warner, too. Still, Hurts is a borderline top-10 QB with the Eagles projected for 23.25 points. They’re my Underdog of the Week.
DeVonta Smith is a fucking baller. He handled 21% targets and 43% air yards in the opener in the toughest individual matchup of the team, and he lit the Falcons up for a WR20 week. Smith gets a matchup boost with CB1 Jason Verrett’s truly unfortunate ACL tear. He’s someone you should be trading for, starting, and betting on in general. … Jalen Reagor made the most of it (finally!), but he only had WR63 fantasy usage and managed to pick up just 6 air yards in Week 1. The 2020 first-rounder also only ran a route on 71% of dropbacks. He’s a bench player in fantasy. … Quez Watkins only plays in 3-WR sets right now, and Philly is a 2-WR set offense. … Zach Ertz (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert split time in the opener as route runners, with the former playing detached from the OL on most snaps. Goedert is the better red zone option and is far more explosive, leaving him with a fringe TE1 projection. He was the TE9 on a 19% target share in the opener. Ertz is a desperate TE2 play while playing through a leg ailment. Keep in mind that the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs since 2020 (read: Fred MFin Warner).
Update: Not only is CB1 Jason Verrett out, but CB2 Emmanuel Moseley (ankle) is doubtful to play. Start DeVonta Smith this week. DE Arik Armstead and DT Javon Kinlaw are both questionable, too.
Miles Sanders looked explosive and handled a mid- to low-end RB2 workload in Week 1. He was the RB17 on RB19 usage while playing on 66% of the snaps, some of those lost snaps went to Kenny Gainwell in garbage time, however. The time to play Sanders is when his OL is healthy. That’s right now.
20. Bears (23.0, -1) vs. CIN
The Bears could bench Andy Dalton at any moment, leaving him near the very bottom of fantasy rankings right now. Chicago’s offense is not only limited by current QB play, but also by their worrisome OL. PFF grades have them 25th in pass protection and 32nd in run-blocking, and 37-year-old starting LT Jason Peters (quad) is battling an injury already. Luckily the Bengals are up at home. They’re 25th in passing EPA and dead last in adjusted sack rate since 2020.
Allen Robinson was caught in Jalen Ramsey and Two-High Hell in Week 1 (see route chart), but I’m not expecting that to carry over whatsoever this week. Robinson still had WR15 overall fantasy in Week 1 after finishing sixth in the metric last year. The Bengals are going to be without CB1 Trae Waynes and S3 Ricardo Allen here. … Darnell Mooney had 18% targets and 25% air yards, typical boom-bust WR4/5 numbers. The thing to note is his enhanced slot usage (from 23% last year to 45% in Week 1). Hopefully that doesn’t lower his aDOT too much. … Damiere Byrd and Marquise Goodwin are rotating in at WR3. … Cole Kmet ran a route on 71% of dropbacks on his way to TE16 fantasy usage in negative game script. He’s still playing inline most snaps, but this is a slight improvement over last year, just not enough to crack the top-12. TD-or-bust.
David Montgomery is about 10x better than most people think. He led the NFL in yards after contact in Week 1 behind the worst-graded OL after leading all RBs in forced missed tackles on receptions last year. A changed diet has made him noticeably more explosive, and he’s always been elusive in tight spaces. Montgomery will be an RB2 this year in an offense that was 50% run in neutral situations last week. He’s just not the RB1 of last year because of a dip in routes run (from 59% last year to 44% last week). Damien Williams is mixing in there.
21. Dolphins (22.25, +3.5) vs. BUF
Tua Tagovailoa was the least accurate quarterback of Week 1 per Sports Info Solution’s on-target rate metric (63%), largely because he handled pressure poorly (-3.6 AYPA) and was under duress often (8th in pressure rate). That’s not a good formula for fantasy production, especially if his athleticism looks off. Tagovailoa is a low-end QB2 sans-Will Fuller with the Dolphins projected for the 21st most points.
No Will Fuller (personal) means Jaylen Waddle (WR45 fantasy usage) and DeVante Parker (WR48) will have easier paths to flex consideration. CB1 Tre’Davious White will see more of Parker on the outside, leaving Waddle with the matchup advantage. I also thought Waddle looked like a potential difference-maker on tape, so I’m definitely interested in him right now. … Mike Gesicki was the TE46 in fantasy usage last week while running a route on just 60% of dropbacks. The slot TE is being hurt by Waddle’s 60% slot presence. I’d roll the dice with the Patriots TEs over Gesicki.
On 56% snaps, Myles Gaskin was half PPR’s RB26 on RB29 fantasy usage. He’s an efficient ball-carrier, but arguably doesn’t have the size to be a workhorse, which explains why Malcolm Brown (30% snaps) and Salvon Ahmed (20%) mixed in during last week’s tight contest.
22. Bengals (22.0, +1) @ CHI
One of the biggest fantasy storylines of Week 1 was the Bengals’ new-look offense. After flirting with top-5 neutral pass rate numbers with a healthy Joe Burrow last year, the Bengals were dead least in neutral pass rate (32%) in Week 1. I saw this coming this offseason to be honest. Burrow not only tore his ACL, but did damage to his MCL and other ligaments and it happened in Week 10. The Bengals are smart to bring him along slowly, which also explains the Bengals’ №18 neutral offensive pace. Burrow looked good as a passer but may not have the low-end QB1 volume for a bit. I expect the Bengals to change their plan as Burrow feels more comfortable.
The tanking neutral pass rate is a distaster for slot-only Tyler Boyd. He was volume-dependent in 2020 with his 8.5 aDOT and was the WR82 in fantasy usage in Week 1. Boyd’s dip in volume could also be explained by alpha wide outs Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, last week’s WR38 and WR39 in fantasy usage. Higgins’ 19% target share was similar to last year’s, leaving him with a WR3 projection for now. Chase was utilized in a downfield role (WR13 in air yards with 113) and didn’t look like a player dealing with confidence issues. I like him as a WR3. The Bears have lost a lot of talent on defense recently and were dominated in Week 1, finishing as PFF’s worst-graded coverage and defensive units.
Joe Mixon is a massive Week 1 winner. He was the RB3 in both half PPR and in fantasy usage, while playing the 4th-most snaps of his career. He led the position in missed tackles forced per PFF and while handle almost all high-value touches in this offense. Samaje Perine played on 21% of snaps. Mixon has top-5 potential as a firm RB1.
23. Colts (22.0, +3.5) vs. LAR
This offense isn’t designed for fantasy football fanatics. They were dead last in neutral pace on Sunday, and Carson Wentz had a 5.6 aDOT in clean pockets per Sports Info Solutions. The offense needs is desperate for a Michael Pittman breakout, and that’s TBD. Wentz against the №1 fantasy QB and passing EPA defense isn’t a recipe for success.
Update: Colts RT Braden Smith (foot) is out, and All-Pro LG Quinton Nelson (foot) is questionable after only practicing in limited fashion on Friday. Not a great situation. Perhaps they activate LT Eric Fisher, who practiced in full on Friday 8 months after an achilles tear.
Michael Pittman ran a route on 98% of dropbacks but only commanded a 11% target share in negative game script. Brutal. It’s too early to fully panic, but Pittman shouldn’t be in starting lineups against Jalen Ramsey and company. Expect a lot of underneath passes with the Rams playing a lot of two-high looks. … As expected, Zach Pascal was a 2-WR set starter over slot-only Parris Campbell. That led to WR32 fantasy usage and a 94% route rate for the gritty starter. Pascal can be picked up in deep leagues, but can’t be started here obviously. Campbell (65% routes and a low aDOT) is screwed in fantasy. … The Colts top TE in fantasy usage last week was Jack Doyle (TE34). Nope.
Update: Michael Pittman (ankle) and Parris Campbell (abdomen) are suddenly questionable after limited Friday practices. We’ll see on Sunday morning. Zach Pascal could be a fill-in WR3 depending on the inactive list.
22-of-24 Week 1 touches for Jonathan Taylor came on first- or second-down because Nyheim Hines is running more routes (23-of-48) than him (19). Taylor is the identity of this run-first offense, however, giving him a 20-touch projection more times than not. The Rams basically dare teams to run it against their light boxes, so Taylor remains a low-end RB1 despite everything working against him. Hines could backdoor into RB2/3 production if things get ugly. These two led the Colts in targets last week.
24. Washington (21.75, -3) vs. NYG
No Ryan Fitzpatrick leaves 28-year-old backup Taylor Heinicke as Washington’s starter. He’s undersized but is a capable scrambler, picking up 46, 17, 22, and 33 rushing yards in NFL games. New York’s physical defense and slow-paced offense (28th) will play against Heinicke’s rushing projection, and that’s how he’ll need to move the ball. He has a career 6.6 YPA and 2.9 TD% through the air. The Football Team was 25th in pass protection per PFF in Week 1.
I think Terry McLaurin’s WR1 potential has already been ruined. Similar numbers to last year (half PPR’s WR22 per game on WR11 fantasy usage) should be expected with another backup QB in there. The Giants have held opposing WRs to the 8th-fewest points since 2020 and could eat against this band-aided OL, hurting McLaurin’s chances. With that said, he’s still a total baller and ate this defense for 7–74–0 and 7–115–1 last season. He’s on the WR2/3 border. … Dyami Brown ran a route on 93% of dropbacks but wasn’t involved much in the opener. He’s a boom-bust player in a low-projected offense, while Adam Humphries farts around in 3-WR sets as a slot-only player. They’re only viable in single-slate DFS contests. … Logan Thomas also ran a route on 93% dropbacks in the nut role for fantasy production. He also could revert back to his inefficient self with a backup, however. Thomas was the TE8 per game on TE4 fantasy usage last year in a similar environment.
Anotnio Gibson relies on his rare athleticism on the ground, but still is working out the kinks with vision/timing, ball protection, and blitz pickups. That’s why 84% of his Week 1 touches came on first- and second-down. Still, Gibson handled the sixth-most opportunities (touches + targets) of the opener on RB14 fantasy usage. He’s a high-end RB2 as 3-point home favorites. … J.D. McKissic ran fewer routes (10-of-35) than Gibson (15) and is unlikely to get the check-down usage he had with the immobile Alex Smith in 2020. Heinicke is more likely to scramble than throw the ball to the flats.
25. Panthers (20.75, +3.5) vs. NO
The Saints are without LB1 Kwon Alexander (elbow), DE1 Marcus Davenport (shoulder), depth LB Chase Hansen (groin), C1 Erik McCoy (calf), and depth LB Pete Werner (hamstring) this week. That doesn’t include DE2 David Onyemata (suspension) or the countless losses in free agency. Even SS/SCB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (knee), depth DE Tanoh Kpassagnon (calf), CB1 Marshon Lattimore (hand), and FS P.J. Williams (back) are questionable. It’s not a great situation for the Saints.
Sam Darnold was at best average in the opener, but this offense has too many weapons and too good of coaching not to be productive in good spots. The undermanned Saints at home qualifies, leaving Darnold with some low-end QB2 upside. The Panthers are projected for the 25th most points of the week, and Teddy Bridgewater finished as the QB22 per game last year.
D.J. Moore might be separating from Robby Anderson this year, at least in terms of targets. Moore appears to be the intermediate target, while Anderson’s aDOT spiked in Week 1 which was similar to his usage with Darnold back in 2019. Moore’s 24% target share, 34% air yard share, and WR26 fantasy usage are mid- to low-end WR2-level numbers. … Anderson’s long TD saved his WR83 fantasy usage in the opener. He should be fine as a WR3/flex play in most matchups with CMC back on his target-hogging bullshit. … Terrace Marshall only ran a route on 64% of dropbacks as a slot-only receiver, but he was at least targeted on 6-of-24 routes. He’ll be extremely boom-bust as the WR3 in an average offense. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (questionable) being out would help his flex case. … No TEs are worthwhile here.
Christian McCaffrey seems kinda good.
26. Raiders (20.75, +5.5) @ PIT
Derek Carr is playing really well and has been for a year now. But it doesn’t translate to fantasy often, and won’t this week against the Steelers’ №1 adjusted sack rate, №2 passing EPA, and №2 fantasy QB defense on the road. Carr is without RG Denzell Good (ACL) and LG Richie Incognito (calf), and first-round RT Alex Leatherwood was PFF’s worst-graded offensive tackle in Week 1.
Henry Ruggs (WR59 fantasy usage with overtime), Bryan Edwards (WR55), and Hunter Renfrow (WR16 fantasy usage but WR78 in points over expected) are going to struggle here. … Darren Waller won’t. He was the №1 player in fantasy usage regardless of position last week and figures to lead the position in targets and air yards this year. Waller’s matchup against SS Minkah Fitzpatrick and company will be fun to watch.
Josh Jacobs doesn’t play much in negative game scripts (5.5-point underdogs), is already banged up at different body parts, and is losing time to offseason priority Kenyan Drake (23 Week1 routes). Jacobs shouldn’t be relied on as an RB2 this week.
Update: Josh Jacobs (ankle, toe) is out. Kenyan Drake has been utilized as a bellcow back before and was an offseason priority, landing a backloaded two-year contract from the clueless Raiders. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll play all three downs apparently. Ian Rapoport reports Peyton Barber will receive between-the-tackles carries, while Drake plays on passing downs. I think Drake will end up playing more than half of the snaps as a boom-bust flex play in full PPR. Barber has not been good, and the Raiders banged-up OL is going to get worked by the Steelers up front.
Update: Steelers LB1 Devin Bush was added to the injury report on Friday with a groin injury. He’s questionable to play. So is CB1 Joe Haden.
27. Falcons (20.0, +12) @ TB
The Falcons will soil their shorts against the Bucs if they take a similar run-first approach. Matt Ryan needs to be leaned on early with tons of play action to take advantage of the Bucs’ suddenly shaky CB group. Ryan had 265–2 and 356–3 passing lines in negative gamescripts against Tampa in 2020. That seems like best-case scenario. Ryan is a volume-dependent QB2/3 with Atlanta projected for just 20.0 points (27th).
Calvin Ridley is too good to get overly worried about, and he even walked away with an absurd 51% air yards share in the opener. Ridley went nuclear against Tampa last year (8–52–0 and 10–163–1). The low total doesn’t drop him out of the WR1 ranks. … Russell Gage was the WR100 on WR77 fantasy usage last week, running a route on 77% of dropbacks. The Falcons have to look functional before starting Gage in non-DFS contests. … Kyle Pitts was 4th in targets and 6th in air yards among TEs in his NFL debut. Things didn’t go his way, but the usage was there, including a 75% slot or out wide rate. He’s a fringe top-6 play against Tampa’s №25 fantasy TE defense.
Mike Davis played on 75% of snaps and ran a route on 77% of dropbacks on his way to RB7 fantasy usage in the opener. But the Falcons OL was a disaster, leaving Davis to pick up 80% of his yards after contact. Things will only get worse here against the Bucs’ №1 rushing EPA and №4 fantasy RB defense. Davis is more of an RB3 than RB2 in fantasy’s most difficult matchup.
28. Jaguars (19.5, +6) vs. DEN
I can’t wait to watch Urban Meyer on FOX Kickoff in Week 8. The Jaguars were embarrassing in the opener, forcing Trevor Lawrence to go bombs away in negative game script. A similar story is expected as 6-point home dogs. Lawrence had a few bad decisions, but his arm talent and athleticism were strong and the Jaguars at least played at the second-fastest neutral pace. Lawrence is a volume-based QB2 play despite Jacksonville’s 19.5-point projection (28th).
Marvin Jones (WR8 fantasy usage) and D.J. Chark (WR10) deserve to be ranked ahead of slot-only weapon Laviska Shenault (WR34), who had a 3.1 aDOT and was targeted on screens, flat routes, or jet sweeps for 5-of-9 targets. Jones (11.5 aDOT) and Chark (16.5 aDOT) have the fantasy-friendly roles as 2-WR set starters and red zone threats. Unfortunately, they’ll be up against a borderline top-5 defense, making all three low-floor plays. Jones and Chark are volume-based WR3/flex plays. Shenault can get there, too, just in full PPR until his role changes. … James O’Shaughnessy ran a route on 79% of dropbacks and ended up with TE12 fantasy usage in negative game script. There are worse TE2 dart throws after seeing his Week 1 usage, but this is obviously very fragile.
James Robinson was the RB40 in fantasy usage while losing snaps (63%) to Carlos Hyde (34%). Robinson was the preferred passing-down back (64% dropbacks), but Hyde out-touched Robinson on first- and second down, 9 to 7. Robinson can’t be started in many leagues until this changes. The Broncos’ №26 neutral offensive pace offense makes matters worse.
29. Giants (18.75, +3) @ WAS
The Giants are averaging 17.3 points under OC Jason Garrett. Turnover machine Daniel Jones is in for a long night on the road against Washington’s №6 adjusted sack rate defense, particularly after some of his linemen retired after Joe Judge’s wind-sprint punishments. There’s a reason why New York is projected for just 18.75 points, the 28th most of Week 2.
After having one of the best training camps on the team, Sterling Shepard led the Giants in snaps, routes, targets, and air yards on his way to WR17 fantasy usage in Week 1. I’m ranking him ahead of Kenny Golladay, who underperformed his 90 air yards in the opener. They’ll play in 2-WR sets as low-floor flex options. Washington was 2nd against fantasy WRs and held the G-Men to 184 and 108 passing yards last year. Big-play threat Darius Slayton remains ahead of suspect first-rounder Kadarius Toney as the №3 receiver. Slayton had 41 and 6 yards in this matchup in 2020. … No Evan Engram (calf) left Kyle Rudolph as the starter. He was the TE36 last week despite TE8 fantasy usage in a negative game script. Backdooring into TE2 production is possible, but we should expect the Jones-to-Rudolph connection to be brutal across the entire season. Washington was 8th against fantasy TEs and added a first-round LB this draft.
Saquon Barkley didn’t have his typical role coming off his torn ACL, and now catches an impossible road matchup (2nd vs. RBs) on short rest. He was the RB24 in fantasy usage last week, and Barkley was stuffed constantly, ultimately scoring 7.7 fewer half PPR points than his usage would expect. Barkley is a low-floor flex behind a bottom-3 offensive line. It’s possible he plays even fewer snaps this week.
30. Lions (18.75, +11) @ GB
Jared Goff backdoored into a massive game against the 49ers’ second-half prevent defense on 57 attempts. That’s clearly unsustainable. We don’t want to chase in-pocket quarterbacks projected for 18.75 points.
Tyrell Williams (concussion) is unlikely to play, leaving Kalif Raymond (73% routes), slot Trojan Amon-Ra St. Brown (70%), Trinity Benson (62%), and Quintez Cephus (39%) in a fat rotation. You are going to lose your fantasy matchup if you have to start any of them. … T.J. Hockenson is my TE3 overall for volume-based reasons. He out-routed consensus TE3 George Kittle (59 to 16) and smashed him in targets obviously (10 to 5) on the same 19% target share. Hockenson will face stud safety Darnell Savage, but volume typically wins out here.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams went off in ideal negative game script, finishing as the RB1 (11) and RB2 (9) in “passing situation targets”. That won’t completely hold up, but this is why Swift was an upside RB2 in full PPR. Goff literally doesn’t have a single NFL starter at receiver right now (maybe St. Brown), so we should expect top-5 targets for Swift if he can keep Williams off his back. The latter handled the lone inside-the-five touch and had more third/fourth down touches (6 to 1). Williams needs to be rostered everywhere.
31. Jets (18.0, +6) vs. NE
Zach Wilson’s arm talent was impressive, but he will get killed if he holds onto the ball and stays on his first read as long as he did in Week 1, especially with LT Mekhi Becton (knee) out more than a month. I’m worried about what Bill Belichick has lined up for Wilson this week. New York is projected for 18.0 points (31st).
Alpha WR1 Corey Davis was the WR5 on WR24 fantasy usage in the opener, handling solid 19% target, 33% air yards, and 100% red zone target shares. Davis will be Belichick’s game-plan eraser, but volume is on Davis’ side in an offense that only sends two receivers out in the route often. Davis is a boom-bust WR3 this week. He could settle in a tier higher long-term. … Elijah Moore needs to get more involved underneath to mitigate Becton’s absence. The rookie only saw a target on 11% of passes despite running 85% routes. He’s a bench hold with the potential of a huge second half of the year. … Tyler Kroft was the TE27 on TE27 fantasy usage last week.
Update: Keelan Cole and Jamison Crowder are both questionable after limited practices this week. Neither played Week 1.
The Jets’ RBs in fantasy usage: Ty Johnson (RB50), Tevin Coleman (RB51), and Michael Carter (RB54). Don’t look at me. You’re the one who drafted a Jets running back, not me.
32. Texans (17.75, +12.5) @ CLE
We root for Tyrod Taylor over here at Underbog. He survived a stint with the pre-Daboll Bills, the pre-Stefanski Browns, and a lung-puncture at the hands of the always-elite Chargers medical staff. Tygawd was a legit baller in Week 1, throwing with touch and velocity while scrambling in the pocket. It felt unsustainable, however, and Vegas agrees. The Texans are projected for 17.75 points (32nd).
Brandin Cooks had the 8th most air yards of Week 1 and made multiple clutch catches downfield. His 21% target and 42% air yard shares are an encouraging sign for his WR3 potential in projected negative game scripts, even if he’s not going to score many touchdowns. CB1 Denzel Ward will make that a challenge here. … Third-round rookie Nico Collins was the WR77 in fantasy usage on 75% routes. He’s a bench hold in deep leagues as we see what he can do in garbage time moving forward. … Slot man Danny Amendola had a 6% air yards share. … Pharaoh Brown popped in Week 1 but is injured (ankle, shoulder).
Update: TE1 Pharaoh Brown (ankle, shoulder) is questionable after getting in one limited session on Friday.
Mark Ingram went off in the Texans’ pistol-based offense, finishing as the RB2 overall in fantasy usage. That won’t repeat with the Texans unlikely to ever be up by that much again this season, and Ingram was the RB57 in my efficiency stat, fantasy points over expected. Ingram can be picked up, but shouldn’t be started. David Johnson will be more involved in negative game scripts.