Week 4 Fantasy Blueprint
A one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
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Week 4 Fantasy Blueprint
The best fantasy offenses of the week are the Bills, Rams, Chargers, Bucs, Cowboys, and Chiefs. Everyone else is clearly in a tier below. Adjust the ranks.
1. Bills (31.75 implied points, -15.5) vs. HOU
The week’s highest projected team, we obviously know to start Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs with supreme confidence. … Cole Beasley (WR16 fantasy usage) and Emmanuel Sanders (WR39 fantasy usage) are also upside plays given the Bills’ №1 neutral pass rate and №2 offensive pace. The matchup for each of them is elite at home against Texans’ DC Lovie Smith, who is using Cover 2 zone at an outlier high rate. Both were top-8 in yards per route run against zone last year and that trend has continued early in 2021 for Beasley in particular. … The RB usage is all over the place, but Zack Moss has the game-script advantage as the grinder and goal-line option. Moss’ RB14 fantasy usage puts him on the boom-bust RB2 radar. Singletary is unlikely to have the targets to pay off as an RB2, but the 31.75-point team total (1st) and Houston’s №30 rushing EPA defense gets him into the desperate RB3 conversation.
2. Chiefs (31.0, -7.5) @ PHI
I’m not dumb enough to doubt the 1–2 Chiefs’ passing offense. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are all in consideration for №1 overall at their positions. Ignore Hill’s slower start, especially with the rest of the WR corps struggling; Mecole Hardman is the WR66 in fantasy usage and 33% of his targets are behind the line of scrimmage, and Demarcus Robinson (75% Week 3 routes) and Byron Pringle (42%) are splitting time out wide. That’s why they kicked the tires on Josh Gordon. … Clyde Edwards-Helaire passed the cupcake test against the light-box Chargers, but his RB32 fantasy usage, lackluster burst, and 5 targets through 3 weeks are legit short- and long-term concerns. Philly’s front seven is their defensive strength, leaving CEH clinging to a TD-or-bust RB2 outlook in the offense projected for the second-most points.
3. Rams (29.25, -4.5) vs. ARI
Matthew Stafford is a mid-range fantasy QB1 and in the MVP hunt with Sean McVay unleashing the №1 neutral pace and №1 passing EPA offense through three weeks. … The Rams’ aDOT in clean pockets is up from 6.1 yards to 7.6, allowing Cooper Kupp to take an unseen leap into the elite WR1 conversation. Kupp’s 35% target share dwarfs Robert Woods’ 20%, but I’m unsure how sustainable that is given how tight they’ve been for years. At home against a fellow fast-paced, high-scoring offense, both Kupp and Woods have elite ceilings. Arizona is trotting out a 4th-round rookie and 33-year-old coming off injury at corner. DeSean Jackson likely earned more routes at the expense of 3-WR-set starter Van Jefferson after his 120-yard Week 3 outing. … Tyler Higbee is running a route on 80% of dropbacks, and he has a top-6 yards per route run since 2019. Arizona has added athletic LBs and SSs, but the game environment is elite with Los Angeles projected for the third-most points (29.25). … We’ll see if Darrell Henderson (ribs) is healthy enough to play. I’d project Henderson to split far more snaps with Sony Michel if active, despite playing around 90% of snaps to start the year. The Rams’ primary reason for the Michel trade was because of Henderson’s durability concerns. As for the matchup, it’s a great one. The Cardinals’ run-defense is lost on tape, and the data confirms that (24th in rushing EPA and 30th in PFF run grade).
Update: Darrell Henderson (ribs) was full in practice Friday, so he’ll likely play through his injury. There’s risk of re-injury and Sony Michel has earned more playing time now that he’s comfortable in the offense. I’m expecting plenty of rushing yards here, but the split is unknown.
4. Chargers (28.0, -3.5) vs. LV
Justin Herbert shreds. The Chargers are 3rd in neutral pace and 4th in neutral pass rate. And new HC Brandon Staley is an aggressive 4th-down nut. What a combination for fantasy purposes, which explains how Keenan Allen (WR2) and Mike Williams (WR3) are posting elite fantasy usage rankings. Allen and Williams have the talent and opportunity for WR1 numbers, especially against Vegas at home. Herbert had 314–2–0 and 326–2–0 passing lines against them last year, and the Raiders are more aggressive offensively this year… The Chargers’ №4 projected point total (28.0) gives Jared Cook upside TE2 outs. He is the TE10 in fantasy usage, TE12 in targets, and the TE8 in red zone looks. He’s been unlucky near the goal-line to start. … Austin Ekeler is the RB10 in targets, is averaging 1.0 inside the 5-yard line opportunity (RB8), and has a plus matchup against the Raiders’ №22 fantasy RB defense. I’m not concerned that 5th-round plodding rookie Larry Rountree was getting stuffed at the goal-line. This is Ekeler’s top-5 RB workload to lose.
5. Cowboys (27.75, -5) vs. CAR
Carolina is top-3 in passing EPA defense, rushing EPA defense, and adjusted sack rate after filling their unit with elite athletes in DC Phil Snow’s unique defense. Dak Prescott has his hands full, but the Panthers haven’t faced this level of a passing offense and are without 1st-rounder Jaycee Horn. Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper are fantasy studs at home with Dallas’ 27.75-point team total (5th). … Cedrick Wilson (WR87 fantasy usage) is the third receiver, but the Cowboys are using pony personnel (2 RBs) and 12-personnel (2 TEs) too much to be relied upon. That’s allowed Dalton Schultz to spike as half PPR’s TE5 overall on TE17 fantasy usage. He’s evenly splitting routes with Blake Jarwin but has earned more targets to date. Their individual matchups against SS Jeremy Chinn and LB Shaq Thompson are more difficult than the stud WRs. … I entirely agree with Derrik Klassen’s film takes when it comes to Ezekiel Elliott (RB10 fantasy usage) and Tony Pollard (RB44 fantasy usage). That makes me a “Zeke is a top-10 fantasy RB and legit plus-level starter” truther. He’s played 75% of offensive snaps to Pollard’s 32%. Expect Zeke to grind between the tackles and at the goal line all while ranking 2nd in RB routes run. Pollard should mostly be viewed as an elite insurance option only. Doesn’t Zeke’s Week 1 tape look good with hindsight of it coming against Tampa?
6. Bucs (27.75, -6.5) @ NE
Fantasy’s QB2 overall Tom Brady returns home with the №6 projected scoring offense of the week. Already 2nd in neutral pass rate and 5th in neutral pace, Brady is further incentivized to go ape shit against Bill Belichick, especially after coming off a rare loss. Antonio Brown (COVID) will return to 3-WR sets as a between-the-20s yardage compiler (few RZ snaps because they go into 12-personnel so often), while Mike Evans is the WR10 in air yards and WR9 in red zone targets as their top dog in short yardage and downfield. Evans dodges shadow CB1 Stephon Gillmore but will see 2-over-1 coverage in 3x1 sets. Evans (WR18 fantasy usage) and Chris Godwin (WR15 fantasy usage) are bankably-efficient upside WR2s based on volume and talent. … Rob Gronkowski also has #RevengeNarrative appeal as a mid-range TE1. He’s the TE2 in fantasy usage on TE3 red zone targets and TE5 regular targets through three weeks. Belichick will have a plan for him (some Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips), but Gronk looks really good on tape, so I’m not concerned. … Leonard Fournette has RB2 potential if Gio Bernard (MCL, day-to-day) can’t suit up. Fournette would have a similar role as he did in the playoffs as the third-down back and likely as the early-down back, too. Ronald Jones can’t be trusted, which explains Fournette’s 49% snap rate and Jones’ 22%.
Update: Rob Gronkowski (ribs), who had TE2 fantasy usage through three weeks, is out. That puts Cameron Brate (27 Week 3 routes to O.J. Howard’s 8) in the streamable TE2 range and adds more touchdown equity to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, who play in the Bucs’ 12-personnel red zone packages.
7. 49ers (27.5, -2.5) vs. SEA
It’s never pretty and it’s not because of him, but the 49ers offense is 4th in passing EPA per dropback with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB and Trey Lance sprinkling in for short-yardage plays. Lance’s goal-line package zaps Garoppolo’s fantasy outlook. We should expect an efficient day through the air in general, however. Seattle is 25th in passing EPA and 18th in adjusted sack rate so far. Deebo Samuel (WR10 fantasy usage) and Brandon Aiyuk (season-high 94% routes and 13.6 expected half PPR points last week) both have rock-solid matchups. I view Samuel as a sell high with Aiyuk back as a starter. Based on last year’s splits, his 31% target share is unsustainable. … George Kittle’s 19% target share has to go up, right? He’ll be an upside TE1 in a projected high-scoring contest, but his individual matchup is no joke with Bobby Wagner and Jamal Adams plugging things up the middle. Kittle has averaged 64.3 yards in his last three games against Seattle. …
Update: George Kittle (calf) went DNP, DNP, limited in practice. His projection deserves a downgrade pending Sunday reports because of his soft-tissue injury and the 49ers’ general lack of passing volume with screen-game slinger Jimmy Garoppolo at QB. He’s a boom-bust TE1.
Update: Eli Mitchell (shoulder) is a game-time decision after being limited in practice. His AC joint injury is still painful, so he could be ruled out. If active, he’s a boom-bust RB2 because the 49ers didn’t seem to trust Trey Sermon in Week 3. If out, Sermon is an upside flex option with Seattle ranking 32nd against fantasy RBs right now and with the 49ers’ 27.5-point implied total (7th). Sermon received very little help from his linemen last week:
8. Browns (26.75, -2) @ MIN
It’s hard for Baker Mayfield to break out of the mid-range QB2s in an offense that’s 26th in neutral pace and 23rd in neutral pass rate. The Browns’ 26.75-point total and the Vikings’ struggling CB group give him more upside than normal, particularly with Odell Beckham looking explosive on tape last week. … Beckham saw 9 targets, 149 air yards, and even had an end around in his return. I like his “boom” odds as a legit WR2 against the ghosts of Patrick Peterson and Baushad Breeland on the perimeter. They’ve allowed a CB-duo-high 28–439–6 receiving line thus far. Donovan Peoples-Jones (Z) and Rashard Higgins (slot) will join him in 3-WR sets. … Austin Hooper (TE21 fantasy usage) and David Njoku (TE26 fantasy usage) are splitting pass routes in the Browns’ heavily-used 2-TE sets. Each has spiked-week potential given the game environment, but they cannibalize each other in general as forgettable TE2 options. We’ll see if LB Anthony Barr returns this week. … Behind the league’s best run-blocking OL, Nick Chubb projects well as 2-point favorites with a top-10 team total against a defense that’s 25th in rushing EPA allowed. Chubb is half PPR’s RB6 per game since 2020 and the RB8 in 2021. He’ll lose some snaps to Kareem Hunt, who is playing over Chubb in the valuable 2-minute drill, but Chubb slightly out-touches Hunt inside the 5-yard line, 3–2, and on early-downs, 47–36. All of these RB stats I used are in my weekly “Situational RB Touches” column. Learn to love it.
Update: Odell Beckham is my my Benjamin of the Week, the player who I think will boom for 100+ yards.
9. Titans (26.75, -7.5) @ NYJ
On YouTube, I picked the Jets as my Underdog of the Week because the Titans’ top-heavy roster is missing A.J. Brown and Julio Jones (hamstrings), and Ryan Tannehill is 21st in passing EPA through three weeks. Tannehill’s matchup is fine — the Jets defense is bad but well-coached, and the Jets offense doesn’t put pressure on opposing offenses — but the starting WRs are Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (82% Week 3 routes) and Chester Rogers (55%) right now. Not ideal. Expect even more 12- and 13-personnel with Anthony Firkser becoming a far more appeal TE2 streamer here. Of course, Derrick Henry is projected for a humongous game regardless of gamescript.
10. Bengals (26.5, -7.5) vs. JAX
Joe Burrow will not be a viable QB1 option until the Bengals’ offensive philosophy changes. They are 31st in neutral pace and 28th in neutral pass rate through three weeks while Burrow gets more comfortable with game action. The Jaguars’ non-existent pass defense (31st in EPA and 30th in adjusted sack rate) is suddenly without outside CB C.J. Henderson, so Burrow can be projected for an efficient upside QB2 outing. Cincy is projected for 26.5 points (10th). … Tee Higgins (shoulder) has been ruled out. The Bengals’ suddenly slow-paced, run-heavy offense can’t support three fantasy-viable WRs, but Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd become high-ceiling options with Higgins out. Chase is the WR2 in fantasy points over expected as a negative regression candidate not to worry about regressing in this friendly matchup with the target tree trimmed. His burst is evident on deep balls (16.4 aDOT), and the preseason drops haven’t been an issue so far. Boyd’s 6.8 aDOT is harder to work with in terms of ceiling, but his 33% target share last week is evidence that he can sneak into WR3 numbers assuming the Bengals pass more than the 18 times they did in Week 3. … Joe Mixon is losing some passing-down reps to his backups, but he’s still the only Bengal RB to earn a touch in the valuable two-minute drill and is the RB3 overall in opportunities on first- and second-down. The 7.5-point spread, the home environment, and Jacksonville’s №28 fantasy RB defense put Mixon into the top-5 conversation. Mixon averages 4.4 more carries and 25.5 more rushing yards in career wins.
11. Packers (26.0, -6.5) vs. PIT
The Packers will be without fill-in LT Elgton Jenkins, and the Steelers are expected to have elite EDGE1 T.J. Watt and EDGE3 Alex Highsmith. Aaron Rodgers will be under pressure more often than normal, but Vegas’ 26.0-point projection (11th) keeps him on the QB1/2 border despite the OL and Marquez Valdes-Smith (hamstring, IR) injuries. My WR1 overall, Davante Adams has a plus matchup against the Steelers’ №27 fantasy WR and №28 PFF pass coverage defense. It’s possible that the Packers use more 21- and 12-personnel this week with field-stretcher MVS banged up. That absence could push Lazard to the perimeter (Z) and Randall Cobb into the slot in 3-WR sets. They are deep-league streaming options. … Robert Tonyan is a TD-dependent TE1/2 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks. Tonyan’s TE30 fantasy usage right now is lower than it was last year, and SS Minkah Fitzpatrick is capable of ruining things over the middle. … Aaron Jones hasn’t lost an inside the five-yard line opportunity to A.J. Dillon yet, leaving him with RB4 overall fantasy usage through three weeks. Jones has a 28% target share in the red zone right now.
12. Saints (25.5, -7.5) vs. NYG
I’m surprised the Saints are projected for 12th-most points of the week because this offense lacks talent. They’ll be without C Erik McCoy and LT Terron Armstead, and the receivers aren’t getting open. Expect another massive Alvin Kamara workload who is the RB6 in carries along with a team-high 22% target share. Kamara is the RB1 overall this week with the Giants LB Blake Martinez out and the Saints returning home for the first time in a month as 7.5-point favorites. … Jameis Winston’s best receiver is Marquez Callaway, who only ran a route on 63% of Week 3 dropbacks and has earned a forgettable 17% target share through three weeks. Callaway is a desperate WR5 in New Orleans’ №24 neutral pace and №29 neutral pass rate offense. … Juwan Johnson has ran 31 routes in three weeks. His TE28 fantasy usage is still higher than primary inline-blocker Adam Trautman (TE39).
13. Seahawks (25.0, +2.5) @ SF
The Seahawks are 13th in neutral pace and 20th in neutral pass rate. That combination limits Russell Wilson’s fantasy upside, as evidenced by Seattle’s №13 team total (25.0 points). Wilson has been held to 5.0, 7.1, 5.8, and 6.8 yards per attempts against the Niners recently, and opposing offenses are running the ball against the 49ers at the second highest rate in neutral situations. Wilson is a low-end QB1. … Tyler Lockett (hip) practiced in full on Friday and will continue to inconsistently ball on the WR1/2 border. Both Lockett and DK Metcalf will be taking advantage of the 49ers’ injuries at CB with Jason Verrett (ACL), K’Waun Williams (calf), and Josh Norman (chest) all out. Metcalf’s 29% target and 39% air yard shares are super bullish for boom weeks. Dee Eskridge (concussion) is still in the concussion protocol. … Chris Carson is balling (RB3 overall in fantasy points over expected) and should get 15+ carries with goal-line opportunities here. His lone issue is his lack of passing volume. Travis Homer has 100% of the Seahawks’ RB two-minute drill targets this year. Carson is an RB2. Rashaad Penny (calf) was put on injured reserve this week.
14. Vikings (24.75, +2) vs. CLE
Kirk Cousins is cooking. The Vikings are 5th in passing EPA per dropback, and he’s evading the rush behind a patched-worked offensive line (3rd in adjusted sack rate). Cousins has the weapons he needs to be a borderline QB1/2 at home despite facing an improving Browns defense. Both teams play slow (25th and 26th in neutral offensive pace), but there should be enough big plays to cash in for fantasy. … Expect Denzel Ward to see more Justin Jefferson (WR9 fantasy usage) than Adam Thielen (WR24), but both should be comfortably started as the Vikings’ WRs are 3rd in fantasy points through three weeks. … Tyler Conklin is the TE11 in fantasy usage on the 12th most targets per game. He’s a legit athlete with runaway speed. Just ask Jamal Adams last week. Conklin’s individual matchup against John Johnson, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and others isn’t easy, but he’s earned top-15 love. … Dalvin Cook is expected back. He’s a top-5 play whenever active. Just make sure to stash Alexander Mattison in all 8- and 10-person leagues.
15. Football Team (24.75, -1.5) @ ATL
Taylor Heinicke is in a fantasy-friendly scheme that plays with top-10 neutral pace and has the weapons to create explosive plays. His 24.7 rushing yards per game over his last six appearances elevate his QB2 fantasy floor and ceiling. Washington is projected for the 15th-most points of Week 4 (24.75), and the Falcons are 28th against fantasy QBs. … Terry McLaurin is the WR30 in fantasy usage and should settle in as a fringe top-24 receiver with subpar quarterback play as he did last season. McLaurin has only seen 4% of his targets travel 20+ air yards downfield, but that could change at any time given his speed and ball-tracking ability. He’ll face CB1 A.J. Terrell this week and will welcome Curtis Samuel (groin) back to the lineup. Samuel is a risky WR4/5 in his debut, especially after practicing so little since signing his multi-year contract. Expect him to play Z in 3-WR sets, taking rookie Dyami Brown off the field. … Logan Thomas is the TE5 in routes but the TE15 in targets and TE12 in air yards. He’s a low-end TE1 against a Falcons unit that’s 27th against fantasy TEs. … Antonio Gibson (shin) will play through injury. He’s not playing on passing downs, keeping him the TD-dependent RB2 mix. The Falcons’ run-defense has been better than their pass-defense for two years now, but the 1.5-point favorite spread works in Gibson’s favor. He’s the RB21 in fantasy usage on RB11 carries and RB28 targets.
16. Cardinals (24.75, +4.5) @ LAR
Kyler Murray gets the toughest fantasy QB test there is. The Rams’ zone defense with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey playing the star role (slot) has the tools to limit Murray’s rushing ability, and the pass defense has held up despite lots of offseason turnover. Murray had a 4.4 YPA game with 178–3–1 last time he played a full game against the Rams, but WR and C Rodney Hudson additions have him securely in the top-5 regardless of matchup right now. … It’s hard as hell to earn a 25–30% target share in an offense that primarily uses 11- and 10-personnel. DeAndre Hopkins’ 18% targets and WR53 fantasy usage are partially structural, but moving beyond his rib issue should help his outlook. Ramsey has shadowed Hopkins before. I’m not expecting that to materialize this time because of adding receiver depth and Ramsey’s 53% slot rate this year. … A.J. Green (WR41 fantasy usage) and Christian Kirk (WR42) are both playing well and playing ahead of Rondale Moore (WR62), who should be viewed as a bench stash only. Green gets valuable routes in 12-personnel inside the red zone as a legit WR4. Kirk will see some Ramsey in zone, but his league-leading 54% of air yards are down the middle are extremely high-value (see below). … Maxx Williams only has an 11% target share. … Gamescript and scheme favor part-time RB3 Chase Edmonds this week. The Rams two-high zone defense invites checkdowns, and the Rams offense easily could force Arizona into even more pass attempts. To date, Edmonds has RB18 fantasy usage on 62% snaps. James Conner is the preferred back in the red zone as a TD-or-bust RB3.
17. Raiders (24.5, +3.5) @ LAC
The Raiders’ №4 neutral pass rate offense is a surprise, though could be influenced by Josh Jacobs’ absence. He’s questionable after limited practices all week. If healthy, Jacobs has reasonable RB2/3 odds against a soft-boxed defense that will be without DT Justin Jones and possibly MLB Kenneth Murray, who left early during Saturday’s practice. The Chargers (purposely) are 29th in rushing EPA and 25th against fantasy RBs. … The real story is Derek Carr’s jump into every-week QB2 consideration while ranking 6th in passing EPA per dropback. Carr is far more aggressive and has the underneath pieces in elite TE1 Darren Waller and ankle-collector Hunter Renfrow (WR35 fantasy usage) to move chains, too. Expect Derwin James to see Waller, who popped for 9–150–1 the last time he played L.A. (without James). … Henry Ruggs lacks consistent volume (WR48 fantasy usage), but he’s being used properly this year and looks improved in all phases. He’s getting underneath looks in addition to value deep shots. Carr just missed Ruggs for another 60-yard touchdown last week. Ruggs is a boom-bust WR4. Both Ruggs’ and Renfrow’s outlooks are improved if Chris Harris (questionable) can’t suit up.
18. Eagles (23.5, +7.5) vs. KC
Jalen Hurts is a total outlier when it comes to throwing over the middle, mostly because he bails from the pocket too early and is sadly constantly late on his reads. Relying on sideline targets is a bad bet, and the Eagles are without LG Isaac Seumalo (broken foot), RG Brandon Brooks (short-term IR), and possibly LT Jordan Mailata (knee, DNP on Wednesday). Hurts will have to pay off as a fantasy QB1 (and keep his real-life starting job) because of his legs. Luckily for him, the Chiefs are dead last in rushing EPA and 30th against fantasy QBs. I made a video clip of the Chiefs’ LBs last week. They stink. … DeVonta Smith is a full-time player, but he has WR51 fantasy usage with Philly ranking 20th in pass attempts. Smitty has rebound potential here, however. Volume should be on his side with the Eagles sitting as 7.5-point home dogs, and the Chiefs secondary is brutal right now. They’re 29th in passing EPA defense right now, leaving Smith as a fill-in WR4/flex. Jalen Reagor isn’t playing in 1- or 2-WR sets and has never looked good to me on tape. … 2021 Routes: Zach Ertz (TE22), Dallas Goedert (TE24). Both should be viewed as upside TE2s in this struggling passing offense, and Goedert could be tasked with pass-blocking more here because of the OL injuries. … Miles Sanders isn’t playing on passing downs (Kenneth Gainwell), the Eagles are possibly down three OL starters, and their touchdown dogs here. The only hope is the Chiefs’ league-worst rushing EPA defense allowing for efficiency.
19. Falcons (23.25, +1.5) vs. WAS
Matt Ryan is dead last in on-target rate despite also being dead last in aDOT per Sports Info Solutions. It looks bad, and he’s not getting any help from his coaching staff or offensive line (22nd in adjusted sack rate). Ryan luckily gets an ailing Washington defense (32nd against fantasy QBs), who have been slowly picked apart thanks to their soft off-coverage zone defense. It’s time to panic everywhere if things don’t correct at home here. … Calvin Ridley is an easy buy-low. He’s the WR5 in fantasy usage on an absurd 50% air yards share. Once the Falcons take more intermediate and deep shots (see below) off play action, Ridley will feast again. No Russell Gage vaults target-deserter Olamide Zaccheaus into 2-WR sets. Nobody has more routes in 2-WR sets than Ridley (52) this year. … Kyle Pitts mostly has the usage we want. He’s the TE4 in routes and TE7 in fantasy usage, and he looks the part on tape, too. Hopefully Arthur Smith doesn’t sub him out in favor of a FB and an old run-blocking TE inside the red zone again, but overall, I’m bullish. … Mike Davis is the Falcons’ goal-line back, and he’s the RB3 in targets per game on RB9 fantasy usage. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB35 fantasy usage) is an explosive manufactured-touch complement when Atlanta is trailing or in need of a big play, but Davis has an underrated ceiling with better TD luck. He’s 0-for-4 in the red zone (for no fault of his own). Washington’s №26 rushing EPA defense and Atlanta’s №19 implied point total leaves the RB2 light on for Davis.
20. Panthers (22.75, +5) @ DAL
Sam Darnold is the QB9 in passing EPA per dropback with vastly improved coaching and weapons. No Christian McCaffrey hurts, but also could influence more passing volume in general, as will the Cowboys’ dangerous offense. Darnold is an upside QB2 against a Dallas unit that’s 31st in adjusted sack rate and 27th against fantasy QBs. … D.J. Moore is the WR21 in fantasy usage on an elite 29% target and 41% air yards share. In negative gamescripts, Moore is a top-12 fantasy receiver. That’s the case here as 5-point road dogs, even if CB1 Trevon Diggs is emerging in their Cover 1/3 scheme. … Robby Anderson has rebound appeal after a WR84 fantasy usage start. He’s been hurt by the Panthers 0% trail rate this year, something we expect to change this week. Anderson’s 17.7-yard aDOT makes him far more volatile, but he’ll likely see more underneath targets sans-CMC this week. He’s an upside WR4 in a plus individual matchup. … Chuba Hubbard is a boom-bust RB2. He’ll be an RB1 if his Week 3 usage carries over (16.0 expected half PPR points), but Royce Freeman should be more ready to eat into Hubbard’s role another week inside the building (signed September 7th). Hubbard looked inefficient with his movement while adapting to a more gap-centric rushing scheme and has dropped two passes. He’s probably not very good. Ultimately, usage is what we are after and he at least had it last week. ESPN’s David Newton tweeted, “Hubbard will play a lot and Royce Freeman will play a lot at running back. I would suspect Hubbard plays a little more than Freeman.”
21. Bears (22.75, -3) vs. DET
The Bears used bootleg and RPOs on 8-of-28 dropbacks. Not that everything was perfect from coach Matt Nagy, but that was the highest mark of Week 3. The true culprits last week were (in order) Justin Fields, 39-year-old LT Jason Peters, and the collective pass catchers. Fields doesn’t yet understand what “open” is in the NFL, which is why he took so many sacks last week. He has the arm talent to make all throws, so hopefully he takes more risks this week against a more-straightforward man team that’s missing their only capable corner. Fields is a boom-bust QB2 with rushing upside and in-game benching downside. … Allen Robinson has been used like Adam Humphries to start (90% of his targets are within 10 yards). Not great. This the ultimate get right spot at home. He has cooked the Lions for at least 74 yards in all four games since 2019 against them, and there’s no CB1 Jeff Okudah (achilles) this week. Robinson is a “trust his pedigree” WR2/3 despite his WR71 fantasy usage. … Cole Kmet is the TE13 in routes, but he doesn’t look like a difference maker yet as evidenced by his lowly TE32 fantasy usage. One of Fields’ sacks was on a Kmet crossing route where Kmet didn’t get open enough. … 87% of David Montgomery’s opportunities have came on 1st- or 2nd-down because Damien Williams is playing on most passing situations. Still, Montgomery is the RB17 in fantasy usage as a much-improved between the tackles rusher with the full-time goal-line job. The Lions are 26th against fantasy RBs, and the Bears are 3-point favorites here.
22. Dolphins (22.5, -1.5) vs. IND
Jacoby Brissett has a 4.3 YPA this year and a career 6.4. It’s hard to provide fantasy value in this offense, one that hosts PFF’s worst-ranked pass-blocking grade. Because of that, we shouldn’t expect every-week consistency from any of the pass-catchers, and there are a lot of them. Will Fuller is active and should eat into Jaylen Waddle (WR32 fantasy usage), DeVante Parker (WR40), and Mike Gesicki’s (TE9) target shares. The slow-paced nature of this game isn’t helping any of their flex appeals, but one of the four will inevitably pop this week. The Colts are 28th against fantasy WRs and 10th against fantasy TEs. They’re without DE Kwity Paye (hamstring), S Khari Willis (ankle, groin), and CB Rock Ya-Sin (ankle) right now. … Myles Gaskin has 0.0 inside the five-yard line opportunities this season, and he’s 14th in RB screens after being 4th last year because of a lack of receiver talent (not an issue now). Gaskin’s RB36 fantasy usage behind this OL makes him a forgettable RB3 while Malcolm Brown continues to mix in.
23. Broncos (22.5, -1) vs. BAL
Behind a well-constructed play-action heavy offense, Teddy Bridgewater is the QB1 in passing EPA per dropback and the QB1 in completion percentage over expected, although that can partially be explained by facing the Jets, Jaguars, and Giants to start the year. The Broncos’ 22.5-point projection (23rd) feels right in a much harder test against the aggressive Ravens defense. Bridgewater is a low-end QB2 in the №30 neutral pace offense. … Courtland Sutton’s 21% targets and WR36 fantasy usage are bound to improve without both Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, especially if Denver plays from behind. The Ravens will put CB1 Marlon Humphrey on Sutton, but they’ve been exposed in general (26th in passing EPA) due to injuries and offseason departures. Sutton is an upside WR2/3. Tim Patrick is a full-time player and could benefit from more 2-TE sets if an offensive change is made with Hamler out. Patrick’s career 8.8 YPT makes him an upside WR5 play. … Noah Fant has been unlucky to date, but he has the TE8 fantasy usage that allows him to hit top-6 fantasy ceilings in negative scripts. He’s legitimately one of the best receiving options in the NFL at the position, and he’s running a route on 88% of dropbacks. A boom week is coming, and Baltimore is 32nd against fantasy TEs. … Melvin Gordon (ribs) will play through injury here. He carries more in-game risk, and the Broncos are unlikely to play with as big of a lead as they did to start the season. Gordon has out-snapped (and frankly out-played) Javonte Williams through three weeks. He’s PFF’s RB9 and the RB12 in my fantasy points over expected metric. Williams is hard to trust right now on his RB25 fantasy usage. He’s played more snaps in garbage time than Gordon, who has started each game.
24. Ravens (21.5, +1) @ DEN
Lamar Jackson (back) was a full participant on Friday. He remains an upside QB1 regardless of matchup, though this is as tough as it gets on the road in Denver against their №1 passing EPA and №2 fantasy QB defense. Jackson would be much higher than QB8 overall right now if Marquise Brown hauls in any of his three long touchdown drops. … Always inconsistent, Marquise Brown faces a Broncos defense that has played more man coverage than usual because of their deep CB depth chart. Denver is №9 against fantasy WRs and held similar deep threat WRs Marvin Jones (6–55–1 on 11 targets) and D.J. Chark (3–19–0) to inefficient production this year. Brown’s current 26% target share feels unsustainable with Rashod Bateman (groin) making the trip. It’s unclear if he’ll play. A healthy Bateman would render Sammy Watkins to even fewer targets. … Mark Andrews is the TE9 in targets and the TE6 in air yards on a below-expectation 20% target share. He’s been inconsistent for two seasons in a row and is more of a low-end TE1 than upside TE1 against Denver’s №6 fantasy QB defense. … The Ravens’ RB rotation is all over the place, and the 1-point underdog spread and lowly 21.5-point team total (21st) isn’t the time to force Ty’Son Williams or Latavius Murray into fantasy lineups. They are the RB42 and RB53 in fantasy usage respectively. Le’Veon Bell was also promoted ahead of this game.
25. Patriots (21.25, +6.5) vs. TB
This will be a Mac Jones week. The Bucs’ №3 rushing EPA defense is forcing opposing offenses into an outlier 83% neutral pass rate, by far the top rate in the league. Jones projects for 35+ pass attempts as 6.5-point home dogs, but he’s getting little WR and OL help sans-RT Trent Brown. Jones is a legitimate QB2 streaming option with the Bucs last in adjusted sack rate (JPP is questionable) and second last against fantasy QBs. … His top option is Jakobi Meyers (WR21 fantasy usage), who is the only one winning one-on-one matchups in the pass game. Meyers also should absorb some of James White’s target share, as they both win underneath and against zone defenses (see below). 10+ targets could be in play as an upside WR3 in full PPR leagues. … Nelson Agholor is struggling on tape, but his WR31 air yards per game and 15.0-yard aDOT give him boom potential as a WR4/5 in projected garbage time. … Jonnu Smith only ran a route on 26% of Week 3 dropbacks and had multiple bad drops. He is manufactured touches, however, and could even see some backfield snaps with White out for the year. He’s an upside TE2, while Hunter Henry plays the traditional Gronk role as the inline option. Henry is the TE18 in targets on 65% routes. … Damien Harris needs TDs and positive gamescripts for RB2 weeks, something not expected here. Behind elite DT Vita Vea and LB Lavonte David, the Bucs are №3 against fantasy RBs. Harris still should see 10+ touches and all goal-line work as an RB3. It’s unclear if J.J. Taylor, Brandon Bolden, or Rhamondre Stevenson will fill the White role. My guess is nobody does and it’s evenly distributed in general.
26. Colts (21.0, +1.5) @ MIA
Carson Wentz has the pocket mobility of a newborn giraffe while playing on two ankle sprains, and he’s suddenly without All-Pro LG Quenton Nelson (IR) and RT Braden Smith against a complex, aggressive Brian Flores defense in Miami. The lone passing game player worthy of fantasy consideration is Michael Pittman. He’s the WR17 in targets, the WR22 in air yards, and the WR11 in fantasy usage through three weeks with back-to-back 12-target outings. Pittman has been able to beat man coverage on tape (Wentz missed him on a skinny post TD last week), but the individual matchup will be as difficult as it’ll be all season. He’s a boom-bust WR3 attached to a bad QB. … Jonathan Taylor has RB8 fantasy usage but is the WR33 in half PPR points per game because of bad OL play in the red zone. Taylor needs positive scripts to have ceiling outings, and the Colts top-2 linemen are out. Nyheim Hines once again made a play in space (video) as the better passing-down option, so Taylor is stuck as a run-only RB1/2 in a good matchup against Miami’s №31 fantasy RB defense. Indy is projected for the 26th-most points this week (21.0).
27. Lions (19.75, +3) @ CHI
This isn’t a fantasy friendly matchup with both offenses bottom-12 in neutral offensive pace, and the garbage time volume sponges may not pop as hard here given the tighter point spread (3-point dogs). Still, T.J. Hockenson projects for top-5 TE1 fantasy usage despite being a focal point for opposing defensive coordinators. He’s the TE3 in targets, the TE8 in air yards, and the TE5 in red zone targets while earning targets over Kalif Raymond, Quintez Cephus, and slot man Amon-Ra St. Brown. All of those receivers are outside of the top-55 in fantasy usage. … D’Andre Swift is averaging 7.7 targets per game on RB6 overall fantasy usage in half PPR despite splitting snaps evenly with Jamaal Williams. After popping on tape, coach Dan Campbell said Swift has earned more playing time, thus locking him into the RB1 conversation regardless of script. Swift gets the №21 rushing EPA defense this week. Detroit’s 19.75-point team total (29th) is the primary weakness to Swift’s profile. Meanwhile, Williams is the RB21 in fantasy usage, a number I expect to dip following Campbell’s comments. Williams is a lower-floor flex option with the Lions unlikely to pass to their RBs as much this week.
28. Steelers (19.5, +6.5) @ GB
The Steelers offense will be without WR Chase Claypool and RT Chukwuma Okorafor this week as they head into Green Bay. Ben Roethlisberger is obviously cooked and incapable of stretching the field or create outside of the pocket, leaving the passing game filled with low-value check-downs to Diontae Johnson (knee) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (ribs). They’ll both play and project well in terms of targets as 6.5-point dogs. Expect D.J. to see plenty of elite CB1 Jaire Alexander on the perimeter. Could be a sneaky JuJu week. Najee Harris has the highest snap share at the position as a volume-based RB1 capable of winning in negative scripts (19 targets last week).
29. Jets (19.25, +7.5) vs. TEN
The Jets are my Underdog of the Week because of injuries and pre-season priors, but the only fantasy option on the Jets is Corey Davis, who is the WR31 in targets on a 21% share. Those numbers could pump with fellow 12-personnel starter Elijah Moore (concussion) ruled out. Davis’ individual matchup is pristine. The Titans are 30th against fantasy WRs and missing LB Bud Dupree (knee) and first-round CB Caleb Farley (shoulder). Expect Jamison Crowder (slot) and Keelan Cole (Z) to play in 11-personnel over Denzel Mims and Braxton Berrios. … Michael Carter is officially leading the Jets backfield in expected half PPR points, but he’s still just the RB45 in fantasy usage and splitting time with Ty Johnson. It’s wait-and-see mode for Carter, who I don’t think ever projects for a large workload because of his size.
30. Jaguars (19.0, +7.5) @ CIN
The Bengals will be without their best defensive player FS Jessie Bates, who plays the deep role in their single-high structure, and CB2 Chidobe Awuzie. Trevor Lawrence should have his best odds of downfield passing here, but he has to play better (33rd in passing EPA and completion percentage over expected) to have any QB2 viability. We all know he has the talent to do it as long as he can be comfortable in the new offense. … Marvin Jones is the WR14 in fantasy usage on WR11 in air yards and WR17 targets per game. He’ll catch exploitable CB1 Trae Waynes, who is making his season debut this week. Jones is a boom-bust WR2 right now despite the disaster around him. D.J. Chark is a similar bet as Jones, but he’s not as good, has slightly lower fantasy usage (WR33), and is targeted even deeper downfield on average (12.4 to 16.4 aDOT). They should be ranked ahead of slot misfit Laviska Shenault, who is the WR57 in fantasy usage on a lowly 4.4 aDOT. It’s so hard for a slot-only player with that aDOT to be fantasy viable. … Dan Arnold could have some TE2 viability long-term, but it’s a quick turnaround for the new addition. Chris Manhertz is in there to pass-block. Darnold essentially is a big slot. … James Robinson started, played 58% snaps, and had 15.2 expected half PPR points in Week 3. The Jaguars went more balanced early against an exploitable rushing defense, and Robinson was awesome (see below). Carlos Hyde has run it too well to be completely erased, but Robinson can carve out flex-usage in neutral and positive game scripts. The ceiling is just low with Lawrence’s eyes downfield, unlike Minshew last year.
31. Giants (18.0, +7.5) @ NO
The Saints defense is leading the NFL in man coverage snaps (63, next closest is 49). Do the Giants have enough WR/TE talent to beat man coverage with Sterling Shepard (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) likely out and Kenny Golladay (hip) playing through an injury? I’m skeptical, especially with New Orleans returning home for the first time in a month. Daniel Jones will also be without C Nick Gates (IR, leg), LG Shane Lemieux (IR, knee), and possibly fill-in LG Ben Bredeson (hand). … Kenny Golladay will draw stud CB1 Marshon Lattimore in press man coverage here, and he’s the WR87 in fantasy points over expected, my efficiency stat. Golladay is either due for positive regression or not playing well. He’s a boom-bust flex option with WR37 fantasy usage here. New York is projected for the 31st-most points (18.0). Look for first-rounder Kadarius Toney to be used in the screen game as a full-time player, too, with Collin Johnson filling in for Slayton as the Z-receiving deep threat in 3-WR sets. … Evan Engram ran a route on 67% of dropbacks in the opener (and looked bad of course). He’ll be targeted here out of necessity, though LB Demario Davis and slot CB/SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson are no joke in coverage. He’s a streamable TE2 nonetheless. … Saquon Barkley looked back, played 86% of snaps, and saw 16.6 expected half PPR points last week. He’s a top-10 RB in a tough road matchup. Expect 14+ carries and 5+ targets.
32. Texans (16.25, +15.5) @ BUF
The Bills defense, particularly up front, has taken the leap after spending 9th (DT Ed Oliver), 54th (DE A.J. Epenesa), 30th (DE Gregory Rousseau), and 61st overall picks (DE Carlos Bashom) on the defensive line over the last three drafts. That has led to №2 passing EPA, №4 rushing EPA, and №8 adjusted sack rate rankings through three weeks. Davis Mills doesn’t have much of a chance outside of throwing it to Brandin Cooks (WR9 on WR6 fantasy usage) and possibly slot WR Anthony Miller, who returned to run a route on 78% of dropbacks in Week 3. Cooks will match up with stud CB1 Tre’Davious White, but his 142.7 air yards per game (WR2) and 10.7 targets per game (WR6) are always worth betting on. As a reminder, Cooks is very good at the game.