Week 9 Fantasy Football Blueprint
The one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
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The fantasy offenses of the week are clearly the Bills, Rams, and Cowboys with hat tips to the Chiefs, Colts, Ravens, and Chargers. Of note, the Packers are now projected for 20.5 points following the Aaron Rodgers news.
1. Bills (31.5 implied points, -14.5 spread) @ JAX
News: Cole Beasley (ribs) is questionable but the team is “optimistic” that he’ll play. He’s a WR3 with PPR upside, especially with Dawson Knox (hand) out. Beasley faces Tre Herndon, who’s 2.46 receiving yards allowed per coverage snap is the second-worst mark in the league, and his 0.59 fantasy points allowed per route is the worst among qualifying cornerbacks per PFF’s Sosa Kremenjas.
Usage: Zack Moss is a buy low RB2. He out-routed Devin Singletary 28–12 last week and he played in two-minute situations in addition to handling goal-line opportunities. As 14.5-point favorites with the highest team total of the week, Moss should be in fantasy lineups.
2. Rams (30.5, -7.5) vs. TEN
News: Robert Woods (foot) is questionable but should play after a limited practice on Friday. The team expects him to be out there, and his matchup is ideal as an upside WR2.
Usage: The Rams are 1st in neutral pace this year. Since Week 5, they are also 1st in neutral pass rate. It’s the best passing offense in the NFL, which has vaulted Robert Woods up to WR5 overall in fantasy usage over the last four weeks. Woods is an upside WR2 in a soft matchup against the likely faster-paced Titans. Van Jefferson (WR54 fantasy usage) is a flex flier and rare handcuff fantasy receiver who should be rostered in most 12-person leagues now that DeSean Jackson has been released. … The same thing can be said about Sony Michel behind Darrell Henderson (RB8 fantasy usage).
3. Cowboys (29.75, -10) vs. DEN
News: Dak Prescott (calf) is practicing and will start in Week 9 as a must-play QB1. … Michael Gallup (calf) and Blake Jarwin (hip, IR) are out, however. That leaves Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz in elite spots. Despite missing Thursday’s practice following a Wednesday ankle sprain, “there is not much concern” regarding Lamb’s Week 9 availability per ESPN’s Todd Archer. The WR duo are upside WR1/2s. Schultz is a top-8 TE as the Cowboys likely continuing spamming heavy 2-TE looks. … Remember, the Broncos don’t have EDGE1 Von Miller, EDGE2 Bradley Chubb, LB1 Alexander Johnson, LB2 Jose Jewell, and slot CB Bryce Callahan right now. This isn’t the typical Denver defense. … With that said, Cowboys LT Tyron Smith (ankle) is out.
4. Colts (28.5, -10.5) vs. NYJ
Matchup/News: The Colts are projected for the 4th-most points this week. Insane. Jonathan Taylor could go to the moon at home against the №32 fantasy RB defense, especially now that he’s running more routes than Nyheim Hines. In Weeks 1–6, Taylor averaged 15.1 routes. He’s had 21 and 36 routes in the last two games. … Michael Pittman also is a MFin stud WR2 with at least 17.9 expected half PPR points in 3 of his last 4 games. T.Y. Hilton (concussion) is out, leaving Pittman and Zach Pascal in 2-WR sets.
5. Chiefs (28.5, -7.5) vs. GB
Usage: Darrel Williams lost some snaps to Derrick Gore, but Gore only ran a route on 4-of-55 dropbacks to Williams’ 37. Williams remains the best bet for upside RB2 production even though his floor is suddenly lower than expected. As usual, the Packers run defense is among the worst in the NFL (27th in rushing EPA), so there is room for yards on the ground here. … The battle for receiver snaps has heated up behind Tyreek Hill. Both Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle played snaps in the slot. Both Demarcus Robinson and Josh Gordon mixed in out wide. It’s a spot to mostly avoid, especially with the offense in a bit of a funk. I’d rank them Hill, Hardman, Pringle, Gordon, Robinson right now.
6. Ravens (27.5, -5.5) vs. MIN
News: Latavius Murray (ankle) is doubtful, and Devonta Freeman filled in for Murray last game. Freeman is a desperate flex play now that the Ravens are 3rd in neutral pass rate and are rotating Le’Veon Bell and Ty’Son Williams in. … Both Sammy Watkins (thigh) and Rashod Bateman (groin) are questionable. I was initially more worried about Bateman, who went from unlisted to DNP on Friday, but coach John Harbaugh seems confident he’ll play. Watkins, meanwhile, got in two-straight limited practices to end the week, but Harbaugh was less optimistic per ESPN. For now with the injuries, it’s only Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in fantasy lineups.
7. Dolphins (26.0, -6.5) vs. HOU
News: Tua Tagovialoa (finger) is out. Jacoby Brissett is back to starting. This year, the Dolphins are averaging -0.06 EPA per play with Tua on the field, and -0.16 EPA per play without him per Sports Info Solutions, but the structure of the offense doesn’t really change. It will continue to be a dink-and-dunk passing offense. … Will Fuller (finger) remains on injured reserve, and DeVante Parker (hamstring) had a setback and was placed on injured reserve as well. It’ll be a heavy dosage of Jaylen Waddle (WR12 fantasy usage) and Mike Gesicki (TE6 fantasy usage) with the two perimeter receivers sidelined. The Texans’ Cover 2 zone defense influences underneath targets, which is where Waddle has been earning his paychecks. He’s a legit WR2. Mack Hollins only had 6.2 and 5.9 expected half PPR points in the last two games without Parker, and Preston Williams is expected to play now. Gesicki had 11.0 and 13.3 expected half PPR points in those same two contests.
Usage: Here is where Brissett and Tagovailoa have thrown passes this year, followed by their receivers production with each QB (where “on” is with Tua and “off” is with Brissett”. All courtesy of Sports Info Solutions.
8. Chargers (25.5, -1) @ PHI
Opinion: Don’t panic about the Chargers. Yes, their RG/RT situation is truly awful, but the Week 6 and Week 8 matchups were brutal and schematically lined up perfectly with Justin Herbert’s worse games as a rookie, too. The Eagles defense is completely differently, however, ranking 2nd in MOFO (two-high safeties) and 3rd in zone coverage rate. They literally couldn’t be further from what the Patriots and Ravens run. Expect Herbert, Mike Williams (who saw some bracket coverage against Belichick), and Keenan Allen to bounce back here. Both offenses are top-5 in neutral pace. Play volume is key.
9. Raiders (24.75, -3) @ NYG
News: Henry Ruggs was released and faces 2–20 years in prison. Call an Uber folks. That leaves Hunter Renfrow (WR38 fantasy usage) and Bryan Edwards (WR53) as near full-time players with Zay Jones also in the mix. There is more pressure on Edwards to win further downfield now, which could be a problem in general for Las Vegas. Perhaps they sign DeSean Jackson for the home stretch.
10. Bengals (24.75, -2.5) vs. CLE
News: Browns CB1 Denzel Ward (hamstring) might be returning this week after getting in limited practices all week. I think the Browns’ pass rush (4th in adjusted sack rate) could give Cincy some problems if they go into empty sets. The Bengals are 23rd in adjusted sack rate.
11. Eagles (24.5, +1) vs. LAC
Opinion: Jalen Hurts played the best game of his NFL career last week. He was reading things out well and showed off his impressive athleticism with this one-handed catch and throw on designed trickeration. Expect some designed runs and a ton of check downs in this two-high safety matchup. Hurts is a mid- to low-end QB1.
News: The Chargers are without CB1 Michael Davis (hamstring) and rookie CB2 Asante Samuel this week. That’s a decent blow to Staley’s highly ranked defense. This is a win for DeVonta Smith’s WR4/flex appeal.
Usage: Boston Scott was the clear-cut 1A last week. He was pulled early after establishing a lead, received the first goal-line carry, and actually subbed back in for the third goal-line section despite Jordan Howard being in on the previous plays. Scott can run between the tackles better than Kenny Gainwell, who likely only plays in garbage time and negative game scripts. I’m avoiding both Gainwell and Howard. Scott is on the RB2/3 border against the №32 rushing EPA defense:
12. Cardinals (24.5, -1) @ SF
News: Kyler Murray (medial ankle sprain) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) didn’t practice this week. Neither have been ruled out yet, but there’s a reason why the betting markets don’t have this line out right now. Both should be projected for fewer points even if active given their injuries. … A.J. Green (COVID) is also out. That already helps Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore’s projection, but the starting lineup and projected targets are dependent on Hopkins’ status. It’s possible Kirk moves outside to get Moore into 2- and 3-WR sets. This easily could be Moore’s highest-target game to date.
13. Saints (24.0, -6) vs. ATL
News: With Jameis Winston (ACL) out for the year, the Saints will be choosing between Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian. Hill is practiced this week (full on Thursday and Friday) and is likely the answer for the rest of the season, but Siemian is starting Week 9 with Hill mixing in as a gadget QB and short-yardage specialist. That takes Siemian out of the QB2 streaming picture. He has a career 6.4 YPA. … We talked about the Saints in detail here. In summary, I think Alvin Kamara will be totally fine even if Hill is quarterbacking long term:
14. Steelers (23.25, -6.5) vs. CHI
News: Bears EDGE1 Khalil Mack (foot) is out and FS Eddie Jackson (hamstring) is doubtful. Those are two plus starters. I don’t expect the Bears’ №3 adjusted sack rate defense to show up on the road here. This is a nice matchup for the Steelers offense. Chicago is 28th against fantasy WRs and 30th in rushing EPA defense.
Usage: Chase Claypool is officially a full-time player for the first time in his career after running a route on 38-of-39 Week 8 dropbacks. He hasn’t hauled in a signature downfield catch in a bit, but they did give him a couple of manufactured touches behind the line of scrimmage last week. A huge game can come at any moment, and he’s already the WR30 in half PPR over the last four weeks despite missing on big plays. Diontae Johnson seeing more of CB1 Jaylon Johnson is a win for Claypool, too. CB2 Kindle Vildor has been getting cooked when targeted this year:
15. Titans (23.0, +7.5) @ LAR
News: Julio Jones (hamstring) was limited all week but was left off the injury report. He’ll play as a boom-bust WR3. That outlook could dramatically change if A.J. Brown (knee) had a setback. He went full-full-DNP this week and is suddenly questionable. I’m unsure what’s going on there.
Usage: With Derrick Henry, out I’m expecting Adrian Peterson to handle early down work with Jeremy McNichols (205 pounds) operating on third downs. Advantage McNichols this week with AP learning the playbook and Tennessee projected to lose by 7.5 points. Long term, I like Peterson’s odds of RB2/3 production. … Of course, the Titans are projected for more passing numbers, even if their efficiency and play-action rate will be lower than if Henry was available. The Titans have been using more pace on plays without Henry in the lineup, and I’m not convinced the Titans can stay at or below 50% neutral pass without their RB cyborg. A.J. Brown is a top-5 fantasy WR moving forward. We talked about this in depth with stats here:
17. Browns (22.25, +2.5) @ CIN
Opinion: Nick Chubb looked totally fine on tape in Week 8 and should play way more snaps in Week 9, especially with the Browns feeling more desperate after an in-division loss. Chubb is an upside RB1. I’m fading the narrative that his workload won’t increase without Kareem Hunt. They simply really need him right now.
News: Odell Beckham (drama) was excused from practices this week and will be on waivers Monday. Beckham is still getting open in my opinion, but drops and poor timing from Baker Mayfield ruined his fantasy appeal. Jarvis Landry will be an upside WR3 with Beckham gone. Donovan Peoples-Jones is expected to return after a week of limited practices. He could be the second receiver in 2-TE sets.
18. Vikings (22.0, +5.5) @ BAL
Matchup: The Ravens are 6th in man coverage rate, and Justin Jefferson is much better than Adam Thielen at beating man coverage at this point. Both offer upside, but I can a big game from Jefferson especially with Baltimore’s pass offense clicking this year.
19. 49ers (22.0, +1) vs. ARI
News: Eli Mitchell (ribs) is legit questionable after a week of non-contact jersey practices. The 49ers even activated Jeff Wilson (knee) earlier than expected because of Mitchell’s uncertain status. It’s possible Mitchell doesn’t have as big of a workload as usual. If out, Wilson and Sermon could handle early downs with JaMycal Hasty continuing to operate as the passing-down back. We’ll have to just go based on pre-game reports.
Usage: Brandon Aiyuk finally had a full workload last week, running a route on 29-of-30 dropbacks. Kyle Shanahan said it was a good week for him, so we should expect Deebo Samuel to finally have some target competition. More importantly, George Kittle (calf) will be activated off injured reserve and should play on Sunday as a mid-range TE1. With these two back and with Samuel leading the NFL in volatile deep receptions (see below), the spreadsheets are saying Samuel is a sell high. I don’t see his current 35% target share holding up down the stretch, and any Trey Lance starts are likely downgrades for all pass catchers. Give me receivers like A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson.
20. Giants (21.75, +3) vs. LV
News: Saquon Barkley (ankle) and Sterling Shepard (quad) are out. Kenny Golladay (hamstring) and John Ross (quad) are questionable. Golladay went DNP-limited-limited but didn’t need to test in pre-game warmups, a sign that he’s at or near full health. Either way, I expect a heavy dosage of Kadarius Toney in a decent on-paper matchup. The rookie is an upside WR2/3 given all of the other NYG injuries. … Devontae Booker has been the RB21 on RB12 fantasy usage over the last four weeks. Those are fair projections for this week.
21. Packers (20.25, +7.5) @ KC
News: Aaron Rodgers (COVID) is out, so we’re getting Jordan Love’s first start. Reports through 1.5 seasons haven’t been positive for Love, but he’s a mystery box QB2 in negative game script with Davante Adams back in the mix. Marquez Valdes-Scantling (hamstring) should be back as well. Overall, the only “must plays” are Adams and Aaron Jones, who is averaging 14.7 expected half PPR with Adams in the lineup this year. He’s on the RB1/2 borderline against the №29 rushing EPA defense. … As for Adams, the QB downgrade stinks, but a chunk of his production comes from screens and RPO bubbles which don’t require elite QB play to pull off. His floor seems fine against the №29 passing EPA and №30 adjusted sack rate defense.
22. Broncos (19.75, +10) @ DAL
News: With the defense missing at least four plus starters, the Broncos will have to pick up the pace offensively. They currently are 32nd in neutral pace and 20th in neutral pass rate. Expect those to climb a bit with Jerry Jeudy back. He only played in 3-WR sets, primarily from the slot, last week. I’m still ranking Courtland Sutton ahead of Jeudy until that changes. … Noah Fant (COVID) is likely out for Week 9. Albert Okwuegbunam is a TE2 streamer with plus athleticism. He’ll be picking apart chaotic rookie LB Micah Parsons and less-athletic LB2 Leighton Vander Esch. … Broncos LT Garett Bolles (ankle) is out and Denver was already 27th in adjusted sack rate.
23. Texans (19.5, +6.5) @ MIA
News: Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) will start. He was absolutely balling through 1.5 weeks of the year and qualifies as a Konami Code QB2 with upside. Taylor’s return is a massive win for Brandin Cooks, who was only averaging 10.4 expected half PPR points with Davis Mills at quarterback. He had 15.7 and 18.3 expected half PPR points with Taylor early on. Cooks has legitimate WR2 appeal moving forward. The Dolphins are 30th against fantasy WRs this year and will play Cooks man-to-man often.
24. Panthers (18.5, +4) vs. NE
News: Sam Darnold (questionable) was limited all week and is a game-time decision. His shoulder injury is as big of an issue, if not more, than his concussion, and ESPN reports say this is a “real worry”. If active, Darnold’s recent play and this challenging Bill Belichick matchup are enough to avoid him in most fantasy formats. … Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) is questionable for Week 9 after a week of limited practices. The coaching staff wants to limit his snaps to 40–50 if active, so his unique bellcow workload may not be there even if he’s active. Chuba Hubbard has been a volume-based RB2 without CMC.
25. Jets (18.0, +10.5) @ IND
Opinion: This White Guy loves to check the ball down. The Colts love to allow check downs. Expect a plethora of short passes in this slow-paced game (26th and 31st in neutral pace). If the Colts stud LBs can tackle, this will be a long game for the Jets. I’m expecting Jamison Crowder (11.1 expected half PPR with White at QB) and Michael Carter (21.0) to see plenty of short targets here with Corey Davis (hip) doubtful.
26. Falcons (18.0, +6) @ NO
Usage: The Falcons are rotating their personnel and players more than any team in the NFL. Last week without Calvin Ridley, Kyle Pitts (33-of-34 routes) was the only full-time pass-catcher. Russell Gage (23 routes) and Tajae Sharpe (23) were part-time players with Cordarrelle Patterson also playing receiver snaps. For now, it’s simple. Pitts is a top-4 TE1 with elite upside. Patterson is a boom-bust RB2/WR2 who is averaging 14.6 expected half PPR points in the two Ridley-less games.
27. Jaguars (17.0, +14.5) vs. BUF
News: James Robinson (bruised heel) is not expected to play after going DNP-DNP-limited this week. Carlos Hyde had a season-high 12.2 expected half PPR points last week and ran almost all routes following J-Rob’s injury despite Dare Ogunbowale being active. Hyde is a fill-in RB2/3 if Robinson is out. Of note, Buffalo is 1st in rushing EPA defense.
Usage: Jamal Agnew simply should be projected for more points than Laviska Shenault, who continues to be thrown to the wolves at X receiver even though he’s never played or projected to play that position. Agnew is the speedy slot that coach Urban Meyer wants. Marvin Jones remains the best bet for WR3/4 production. He’s the WR18 in air yards since Week 5. Buffalo, of course, is 2nd against fantasy WRs so expectations are low. … Dan Arnold is the TE5 in targets and TE6 in routes since joining Jacksonville. In negative game script, he’s a candidate for TE1-level usage. He’s the upside TE2 streamer of the week.
28. Bears (16.75, +6.5) @ PIT
Opinion/News: Justin Fields had his best game of his career last week. He was seeing the field better, setting protections didn’t seem to a problem, and finally was able to scramble for first downs. Of course, playing in Pittsburgh will be an impossible task. … Khalil Herbert continues to impress. David Montgomery is eligible to return, but with Chicago having a Week 10 bye it’d make sense to give him another couple weeks before returning. Herbert is a boom-bust RB2 given the team total (16.75), especially because Damien Williams low-key started last week before leaving in the first quarter. Williams didn’t practice (knee) on Thursday or Friday.
Week 9 Fantasy Football Defenses
The Steelers should be one of the highest projected defenses of the year. I like the Colts, Patriots, and Cowboys as streamers if available.