One Thing I’m Watching For In Preseason For Each NFL Team
What details to look for while watching August games.
Preseason games are underrated fun. Not only do we get to watch people battle for a dream job, but we also get the answers to our fantasy football tests by watching them closely. There’s nothing more fun than watching a no-namer light things up in the 2nd and 3rd quarter of a preseason game. But most of the preseason things I’m looking for are strictly depth chart related. Who is starting? Where is he lining up? Is he playing in this situation? What type of routes is he running? This column will go into the specifics.
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Arizona Cardinals — Who is playing in non-obvious passing situations?
The Cardinals are candidates to play in a lot of 4-WR sets, but what about when it’s 1st-and-10 in the first quarter? If that’s a 3-WR set like most teams, is Christian Kirk or Rondale Moore playing in the slot? Is it Chase Edmonds in neutral game scripts, or has James Conner’s role been undersold as a potential one-for-one Kenyan Drake replacement? In my rankings, I’m assuming Moore eventually starts over Kirk in the slot with DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green on the perimeter, while Edmonds (passing downs) and Conner (short-yardage) split work in the backfield.
Atlanta Falcons — Where is Kyle Pitts lining up?
I also made this Mike Davis related, but I’m pretty confident he’ll have a mini-bellcow role given the depth chart and his own skill set. As for Pitts, is he playing in 1-TE sets over Hayden Hurst? Is he detached from the offensive line like Mike Gesicki often is? Can he win in 3x1 sets as the isolated player like Travis Kelce? When he is running routes, is he running deep crossers like a legit WR and are defenses treating him like a TE or a WR? In my rankings, I’m assuming he’s doing all of these things as a legit generational TE prospect. I could see him finishing 2nd in targets in Atlanta’s above-average offense.
Baltimore Ravens — Is Gus Edwards actually J.K. Dobbins’ kryptonite?
After the Ravens’ Week 7 bye last year, Dobbins averaged 11.3 PPR points to Edwards’ 10.5. And their fantasy usage was nearly equal, too (11.4 to 9.6 expected fantasy points). For Dobbins to pay off his borderline Round 3 price tag, this can’t happen. This offseason the Ravens handed Edwards a 3-year, $12.4M contract with $8M in fully guaranteed salary, so I’m assuming that Edwards will be a thorn in Dobbins’ side. That stinks because I think Dobbins is a top-10 pure rusher in the NFL already. That doesn’t make him work it at cost, however.
Buffalo Bills — Has Zach Moss actually separated from Devin Singletary?
Moss has reportedly out-played Singletary in camp, but how much does that matter for fantasy? For Moss to be fantasy-relevant, he needs to either start vulturing Josh Allen’s 8 red zone rushing TDs, or play on more passing downs. The latter was clearly Singletary’s role, even during Moss’ playoff run pre-injury. I’m currently ranking both Moss and Singletary as if Moss has better TD luck but that Singletary keeps his passing-down role.
Carolina Panthers — Where is Terrace Marshall lining up?
Camp reports suggest he’ll be the slot this year, a role that he played in at college. And that’d make sense given Curtis Samuel’s offseason departure. I viewed Marshall as a massive boom-bust prospect because of his injury history and inconsistent/unpolished tape, but man, it’s impossible to deny his physical upside paired with OC Joe Brady. If Marshall starts when David Moore is healthy, it’s time to get all aboard the Marshall train in the double-digit rounds of best ball.
Chicago Bears — How dope is Justin Fields?
I’d bet that coach Matt Nagy is partially crediting Patrick Mahomes’ success to him sitting as a rookie when Nagy was in Kansas City. I’m convinced Fields is going to sit on the bench to start the season and that Andy Dalton’s leash is semi-long, but at the same time, I think Fields is a TOTAL baller. Can he be so good that Nagy has no choice to play him early in September? I hope so. Here’s my scouting report on Fields, my 2021 QB2.
Cincinnati Bengals — Can Ja’Marr Chase separate?
From an analytical standpoint, Chase was nearly flawless, but many weren’t convinced Chase was overrated compared to other top-10 overall picks at the position. The reason for that was his forgettable separation ability for a 6’0/201 guy. My personal comparison was a smaller version of Dez Bryant, which is a catch-22 of course. Will the Bengals throw him out there at X receiver vs. more press coverage? Or will that be Tee Higgins’ job?
Cleveland Browns — Who is the WR3?
With the entire starting offense returning, there isn’t a whole lot that we don’t know. One thing that is TBD is the WR3 spot. Donovan Peoples-Jones has reportedly been the MVP of training camp, but let’s see if it translates to the field. He certainly has the pedigree and athleticism (97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) of a fantasy sleeper. All he needs to do is beat out Rashard Higgins, who signed a 1-year, $2.4M contract this offseason.
Dallas Cowboys — Where are the WRs lining up?
Last year, it was a static offense with a lot of basic concepts. It left Michael Gallup (X) in a deep-sideline role against the most press coverage, while Amari Cooper (Z) and CeeDee Lamb (slot) feasted on easier alignments. Rumors suggest the three will rotate more, but that didn’t happen in the small sample of the Hall of Fame Game. Of course, this will be tough to tell if Cooper (ankle) is still sidelined after having surgery in *checks notes* January.
Denver Broncos — Is Javonte Williams playing on passing downs?
Melvin Gordon isn’t going anywhere because of his player-friendly contract. That leaves the backfield in a two-person committee, at least on paper. Gordon appears to be the better passing-down back (he’s experienced in ways the 21-year-old rookie isn’t), and Williams will struggle to pay off his RB24 price tag if that doesn’t change. I’m assuming Williams eventually takes over the ground game based on his sweet rushing skill set, but overcoming Gordon’s pass-catching role will be tough. Let’s see how he does on third downs this preseason.
Detroit Lions — What is the RB split?
D’Andre Swift (groin) hasn’t participated in training camp much, and the coaching staff seems to have an affinity for Jamaal Williams, who signed a 2-year, $6M contract with $3.25M guaranteed. Swift needs to either siphon almost all passing-down work or be the unquestioned goal-line back behind a potential top-10 offensive line. I’m assuming he gets a majority, but not all of both. That’s why I’m slightly below ADP in half PPR. Swift makes more sense in full PPR.
Green Bay Packers — Who is the goal-line back?
Aaron Jones has 24 red zone touchdowns over the last two seasons, but A.J. Dillon has thunder thighs and provides far more short-yardage competition than ex-Packer Jamaal Williams. Will the 247-pound second-year pro be the goal-line back, or has Jones’ efficiency in short-yardage situations earned him the benefit of the doubt? This will determine if Jones is worthy of a first- or second-round fantasy pick.
Houston Texans — Does Nico Collins have the juice?
A former 4-star recruit with 4.45 wheels and a 37.5-inch vert at 6’4/215, Collins profiles as a fantasy sleeper despite forgettable college production in an unwatchable Wolverines passing offense. Collins has a chance to be the Texans’ X or Z starting receiver if he balls out in the preseason. He’s currently battling respected vet Chris Conley as Brandin Cooks’ outside running mate. I’m assuming Collins takes over as a starter at or before the Texans’ bye week.
Indianapolis Colts — Is Jonathan Taylor losing snaps to Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack?
There’s no questioning Taylor’s skill set, but does he have the workload of a fantasy RB1 in an average offense? I’m pretty confident that Hines’ passing-down work is safe, so Taylor can’t afford to lose many change-of-pace carries to Mack. I’m assuming Taylor dominates early-down and goal-line work, while Hines remains involved in two-minute situations.
Jacksonville Jaguars — What routes are Laviska Shenault and Travis Etienne running?
The fantasy worry here is that these two athletes share the same receiving workload underneath. That’s where Shenault has dominated in both the college and pro ranks, and Etienne appears to be headed for a gadget-like RB role that includes RB choice routes and slot targets. Can both pay off their ADPs if used similarly? Or has Shenault developed into a receiver capable of winning 10+ yards downfield?
Kansas City Chiefs — Has Mecole Hardman developed?
All training camp reports suggest Hardman has matured both on and off the field. We’ll see if it’s translating to his route-running ability in the preseason. In the Chiefs’ 2020 playoff run, Hardman was sparsely used and he primarily only ran schemed-open routes. For Hardman to pay off his 88th overall ADP, he needs to be able to beat man coverage at multiple levels. Last year, he was 93rd out of 97 WRs in yards per route run vs. man coverage. Let’s see if he’s a slot-only player.
Las Vegas Raiders — Is Henry Ruggs more than a deep-threat decoy?
In my Tape Detective series, I showed how Ruggs was utilized as an injury-riddled rookie, and I wasn’t impressed. After lifting more weights and getting in a normal offseason, will Jon Gruden let his former first-rounder work underneath? The Raiders need Ruggs to be a 6–8 target player this season with Bryan Edwards and Hunter Renfrow rounding out 3-WR sets.
Los Angeles Chargers — Who is the goal-line RB?
Austin Ekeler was frustratingly subbed out often in short-yardage situations under coach Anthony Lynn, but I don’t want to assume that carries over under a new regime. OC Joe Lombardi allowed Alvin Kamara to stay in at the goal-line, so there’s a massive ceiling to chase for Ekeler at the Round 1/2 border. We’ll see if Justin Jackson (6’0/199), Joshua Kelley (5’11/212), or rookie Larry Rountree (5’10/210) enters the fold in short-yardage this preseason. Please let it be Ekeler (5’10/200).
Los Angeles Rams — Is Xavier Jones good enough to be the RB2?
Sean McVay doesn’t play his starters much, if at all, in the preseason. We won’t fully understand how Darrell Henderson will be deployed based on preseason action, but we’ll learn if Jones, the current RB2, can hang as an NFL player. Jones didn’t reach 200 touches until his redshirt senior season at SMU. He’ll compete with Jake Funk, unless McVay adds veteran depth late into camp.
Miami Dolphins — Can Tua Tagovailoa be more aggressive?
His rookie struggles weren’t because of accuracy. It was his hesitancy to throw into tight windows and get through the progressions. Tagovailoa had an offseason that was set on fixing these issues, but it’s impossible to know how he’ll do until he’s facing legit pressure in games. Tagovailoa doesn’t have the physical traits to overcome these issues if they linger. At least he has the playmakers in 2021.
Minnesota Vikings — Is Irv Smith playing in 11-personnel sets?
In the last 4 games when Kyle Rudolph was out, Smith only ran a route on 23-of-42 dropbacks in 11-personnel per Sports Info Solutions. Tyler Conklin (6’3/254) mixed in on 15 of them, a trend that’ll need to tilt in Smith’s direction for the Alabama alum to climb from TE2 to TE1 ranks in fantasy circles. Smith (6’2/242) is smaller than the typical 3-down TE.
New England Patriots — How healthy does Cam Newton look?
His foot and shoulder derailed his season in 2020, and Mac Jones is good enough to start as a rookie in my opinion. If Newton’s shoulder isn’t right, I don’t think he’ll start many games. If Newton doesn’t look explosive, he may not have a short-yardage role either. For fantasy purposes, Jones is the better bet for Damien Harris (goal-line) and all pass-catchers.
New Orleans Saints — How do the QBs look?
This is obviously the storyline. I’m assuming Jameis Winston starts, but he comes with a short leash post-Michael Thomas injury.
New York Giants — Who is starting in 3-WR sets?
First-round wild card Kadarius Toney has a path to starting in the slot, but he’ll have to beat out Darius Slayton and John Ross. If Toney looks as explosive as he did at Florida, Sterling Shepard will have to kick back outside, something that has negatively effected his production historically. I’m assuming Toney is a part-time player to open the season as a gadget player before taking over after the bye. Let’s see if Toney is more than a raw athlete.
New York Jets — Can Zach Wilson handle pressure?
Behind a dope OL and against an extremely soft schedule, Wilson was only pressured on 23% of his dropbacks per Sports Info Solutions. We literally have no idea how he’ll handle things with people in his face. Wilson (6’2/214) at least has two ass-kickers in LT Mekhi Becton and LG Alijah Vera-Tucker to help him during his transition. I’m assuming there will be plenty of rookie-year growing pains, even if Elijah Moore is as good as we think. Here is my pre-draft report on Wilson, my 2020 QB4.
Philadelphia Eagles — Can Jalen Hurts speed things up in the pocket?
Hurts has a longer delivery, so he really needs to get through his reads quickly to be a consistent NFL passer, especially if his accuracy remains below-average (see below). If so, Hurts will be a fantasy star given his Newton-like rushing ability. The potential difference between Hurts succeeding in the pocket could very well be DeVonta Smith (MCL) getting healthy.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Where are the WRs playing?
Diontae Johnson (X), Chase Claypool (Z), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (slot) are locked in as starters, but Smith-Schuster wants to play more snaps on the outside (not his strong suit) and we need to figure out who is playing in 12-personnel. Last year, Claypool ran just 3 routes in 2-TE sets. That can’t be repeated if Claypool is to fully breakout, particularly if the Steelers run more 12-personnel following the second-round selection of TE Pat Freiermuth.
Seattle Seahawks — Can Russell Wilson hit the checkdown?
It’s been the difference between Wilson being a top-5 QB and an MVP for years. OC Brian Schottenheimer couldn’t figure out this weakness, which is why the Seahawks brought in Sean McVay disciple Shan Waldron. If Wilson throws more checkdowns, the passing offense will be more consistent week to week, and Tyler Lockett could really pop off in fantasy circles.
San Francisco 49ers — Can Trey Lance produce in the pocket immediately?
This offense is very similar to the one Lance ran in college, but Lance is only 21 years old and has one year of starts. He’s an extremely inexperienced quarterback right now. He just might be the rare player for that not to matter much. In addition to being a stud athlete, all indications are that Lance is really smart. If Lance can improve his downfield accuracy and get through progressions on non-play action passes, then he should start Week 1 even if Jimmy Garoppolo looks good. I’m more excited to watch Lance than any other preseason player.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — What is the RB rotation?
Ronald Jones is the best pure rusher. Giovani Bernard is the best pure receiver out of the backfield. And Leonard Fournette is somewhere in between each. The backfield as a whole will be production, but can we get enough separation in each category for any to break into the RB2/3 mix? The best bet is if Jones beats Fournette out between the tackles and in the red area.
Tennessee Titans — Is Darrynton Evans the clear-cut RB2?
Derrick Henry doesn’t play many passing downs, something that Evans could pick up if he can rebound after an injury-lost rookie season. Evans is currently competing with Jeremy McNichols ($920,000) for the №2 job, making Evans a must-draft backup in fantasy circles. Henry has touch totals of 397 and 321 (excluding playoffs) over the last two seasons.
Washington Football Team — Is Antonio Gibson playing passing downs?
23% of J.D. McKissic’s touches came on third down last year (6th out of 83 RBs). Gibson was down at 5% (75th). That must change if Gibson is to break into the RB1 tier as many are projecting. Gibson has the athletic and college profile of a capable 3-down back, but McKissic is a legit role player for Washington. He led all RBs in “passing situation targets per game” last year, my stat that only includes targets in 2-minute drills, on 3rd- and 4th-downs, or while clearly trailing.