Week 1 Fantasy Blueprint
A one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
The 8 categories will all be 2020 data to start, but I’ll begin adding 2021 data gradually using a sliding scale weighing this year’s data more heavily as the season continues. “Offensive Pace” is Football Outsiders’ neutral offensive pace (for both offenses), so this defensive bar is the only exception where we want the bar to actually be tall. “Sack Rate” is Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, so this helps for finding OL/DL mismatches and defensive streaming. “Pass Efficiency” and “Rush Efficiency” is NFLfastR’s EPA per play. The “FPPG” stats are half PPR points per game for that position.
Underdog Fantasy isn’t just a best ball platform by the way. We have daily contests (“Battle Royal”) and player prop (“Pick’em”) games, too. If you haven’t signed up, use this link or promo code ‘UNDERBLOG’ for a $25 sign-up bonus. We’ll talk about these contests on The Underdog Football Show every week.
1. Chiefs (29.5 implied points, -6.0 point spread) vs. CLE
As usual, the Chiefs are projected to score the most points of the week, despite the Browns’ defensive additions this offseason (FS John Johnson, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DT Malik Jackson, CB Troy Hill, DE Takkarist McKinley). Patrick Mahomes should be far more protected this season with LT Orlando Brown, LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, and more depth on the right side added. Mahomes will likely settle for more underneath passing, including screens, versus the Browns’ two-high defense (5th in two-high safety snaps last year). The MVP favorite is still ready for takeoff against last year’s №22 passing EPA defense.
That’s great news for Travis Kelce, who led the NFL in total yards and yards per route run versus these coverages last year. The Browns certainly will rank higher than 30th overall versus TEs this year, but Kelce is in a smash spot here against a potential second-round rookie. … Tyreek Hill’s matchup is more difficult against CB Denzel Ward. That doesn’t move him out of top-3 WR rankings. The Chiefs’ lack of depth in the receiving corps — plus the potential usage of more 2-TE sets — adds to Hill’s target projection. He averaged 10.6 targets over his last 12 games in 2021, partially because defenses are forcing the Chiefs into a lower aDOT with two-high safety looks. It’s unclear who will join Hill in 2-WR sets. It was Demarcus Robinson in the preseason, but he was 88th out of 97 WRs in yards per route run versus man coverage last year. The more intriguing ceiling option is Mecole Hardman, who went from a 45% snap rate last year to a 60% snap rate this preseason following Sammy Watkins’ departure. Hardman still looked extremely raw on tape this preseason — he averaged a below-average 1.08 YPRR, too — but more snaps overall makes him a WR5 dart throw option even if the floor remains very low. The Browns were 28th versus fantasy WRs last year.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a rebound candidate behind a suddenly run-first offensive line. He’s a lock to convert more than 1-of-9 inside the 5-yard line touches for touchdowns this year, and CEH’s passing-down projection is aided by the poor WR depth. A revolving door of linemen last year halted Andy Reid’s intricate RB screen game. He’s an RB1.
2. Buccaneers (29.5, -7.5) vs. DAL
The entire starting lineup and coaching staff returns after their Super Bowl run, and all reports suggest Tom Brady looked as fresh as ever this offseason. Behind the №3 adjusted sack rate offensive line, Brady should pick apart Dallas’ leaky Cover 3 defense. The Cowboys also play with the second-fastest pace, so the Bucs should not only win with elite efficiency but also with play volume. Brady has a top-6 outlook this week and remains my favorite MVP wager at current odds.
Once Antonio Brown joined the offense in Week 9, this was the WR group’s average half PPR points per game: Mike Evans (13.1, which would’ve been the WR14 if extrapolated to the entire season), Chris Godwin (11.9, WR23), and Brown (10.8, WR33). Their production likely ping pongs back and forth this season, but the Bucs’ №4 offensive pace and №4 neutral pass rate suggest that receptions, yards, and touchdowns are coming in hot this year and this week against last year’s №29 defense versus fantasy wideouts. … Following a TE15 per game finish last year, Rob Gronkowski played 15-of-18 first-team snaps in the preseason finale. O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate are around, but Gronk doesn’t look like he’s slowing down and there’s nothing about this matchup that should scare us off upside TE2 production. Leighton Vander Esche was PFF’s №71 coverage linebacker out of 83 qualifiers last year, and first-rounder Micah Parsons was often used near the line of scrimmage this preseason.
Update: Chris Godwin (quad) was a full participant on Wednesday after being added to the injury report on Tuesday. The Bucs offense is fully ready for the opener.
The early-down production was split evenly between Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette this preseason. That likely continues, making neither bankable flex options in the opener. Whoever handles the goal-line work will be the player to know. I’m not sure who that is to be honest. Giovani Bernard (ankle) handled all first-team passing downs this preseason, but never played on 1st- or 2nd-down, limiting his ceiling in all non-full PPR formats.
3. Ravens (27.75, -4.5) @ LV
Lamar Jackson regressed from QB1 to QB9 overall last year with injuries and COVID ripping through the locker room. Jackson’s luck hasn’t been much better in camp, and he’ll be without passing game glue guy Rashod Bateman (groin) in the opener — and possibly LT Ronnie Stanley (leg). The Raiders have added depth at all three levels, but are still releasing and benching recent top-three round picks. They’re a disaster. Jackson should scramble his way to a top-5 finish with Baltimore projected for 27.75 points (3rd).
After missing most of camp, Marquise Brown (hamstring) said he’s at 100% for the opener. He’ll have a very similar role to last year as the team’s primary deep threat. That’s good news this week with the Raiders trotting out PFF’s worst-graded SS Johnathan Abram and second-round rookie FS Trevon Moehrig in DC Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 scheme. He’s a boom-bust flex play in a great matchup with Bateman (groin) injured. Sammy Watkins is the obvious WR1 overall this week after dropping 18.0 and 42.3 half PPR points in Week 1 over the last two years. (Of course, he’s actually a boom-bust WR5 in what should be his best odds of the year to have a big game. The Raiders were 29th in adjusted sack rate and 27th in passing EPA defense last year.) The WR3 rotation will be between Devin Duvernay, Tylan Wallace, and James Proche. The first two started ahead of Proche in the preseason game, but snaps will depend on if Brown/Watkins plays in the slot. There’s not enough targets to get cute outside of single-slate DFS games like Underdog Fantasy’s Battle Royale and Pick ’Em. … Mark Andrews is the favorite for targets and end zone looks after securing the bag a week ago. He was half PPR’s TE5 on TE3 fantasy usage last year while dealing with random drops. Andrews should feast against Abram and the Raiders’ linebackers.
Gus Edwards will lead the way ahead of no-namer Ty’Son Williams. Edwards never played on passing downs, but projects for 15–20 carries and all goal-line work as an RB2 in a cupcake matchup. The Raiders were the 29th fantasy RB and 29th rushing EPA defense in 2020. Williams should hold off practice squader Le’Veon Bell for the №2 spot. He has the athletic profile of a capable passing-down back, but he didn’t play much in college due to transfers and injuries. He’s a wild card RB4 to start.
Update: Gus Edwards (ACL) is out, leaving the Ravens with Ty’Son Williams, Latavius Murray, Le’Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman. The latter two are fully dusted. Murray is on the verge. I’m expecting Williams on most rushing downs with Murray and Bell available for some passing-down work. They are both brand new to the offense. Williams is a boom-bust RB2 in a decent matchup.
4. Titans (27.5, -3) vs. ARI
Ryan Tannehill has finished 10th and 9th in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons, and the loss of OC Arthur Smith should be mitigated by the Titans’ trade for Julio Jones. Tannehill’s efficiency should remain, particularly against Arizona who’s aggressive Cover 1 man defense lacks the cornerback talent to repeat top-15 in pass efficiency this season. With both the Cardinals (1st) and Titans (3rd) playing with crazy neutral pace, we should expect a top-10 week from Tannehill.
Neither A.J. Brown or Julio Jones practiced much this offseason, but they should be fine for the opener and both walk into plus individual matchups. Brown (4th in half PPR points over expected) and Jones (11th) are too physical for the Cardinals’ secondary, who will be without their Patrick Peterson replacement Malcolm Brown (retirement list). That shoves inconsistent 4th-round rookie Marco Wilson (“Rookie CB Alert”) into the starting lineup. Both Tennessee receivers offer WR1 overall ceilings this week. The distant third receiver is Josh Reynolds, but the Titans were 30th in pass attempts last year and most targets are going to the alphas. … Anthony Firkser is the best bet for TE2 production, but he’s not walking into the Jonnu Smith role. In fact, Firkser is a slot-only player who didn’t play in jumbo packages this preseason. Firkser needs red zone production and negative game scripts for a ceiling.
Derrick Henry’s matchup is reasonable as 3-point favorites in a fast-paced environment. After securing J.J. Watt and first-round linebackers in two-straight seasons, the Cardinals should be an improved run defense, but that never limits Henry’s 20-carry projection. The Titans are projected for the 4th-most points this week.
5. Bills (27.25, -6.5) vs. PIT
Aside from a WR3 swap, the entire Bills offense is back after finishing 1st in neutral pass rate, 4th in passing EPA, 5th in neutral sack rate, and 11th in neutral offensive pace. Josh Allen feels risky, but he led the NFL in on-target rate (87%) in clean pockets without play action and pressure last year, which are the most stable stats for quarterbacks. Allen’s matchup isn’t pretty against last year’s №2 defense versus fantasy quarterbacks, but the Bills will pass the ball at will and Vegas isn’t too concerned. Buffalo is projected for the 5th-most points this week as 6.5-point favorites.
Stefon Diggs was the WR3 on WR4 fantasy usage last year, and nothing should change his 2021 projection in the opener. The Steelers defense is weakest at CB and may not rush the passer quite as well as they did last year. There’s been plenty of Gabriel Davis hype, but the two most likely starters in 3-WR sets are Emmanuel Sanders (X or Z) and Cole Beasley (slot). Both Sanders (4th in YPRR run vs. zone coverage) and Beasley (7th) are heady on-field players and should ping pong WR3/flex weeks. Beasley was the WR37 per game last year in half PPR. With that said, Davis will see some snaps even as the №4 receiver. Buffalo is a candidate to climb in 10-personnel usage after using it on 18% of their pass attempts last year. He’s only a DFS stacking option in massive tournaments until he cracks 3-WR sets. … More 4-WR sets will take Dawson Knox, who needed a hand-eyed coordination specialist this offseason, off the field.
The Bills’ RBs were 31st in fantasy usage and 32nd in half PPR points last year because of their league-leading neutral pass rate. Devin Singletary (passing downs) or Zack Moss (goal-line) will have to separate from the pack to become flex options, and that didn’t happen in the preseason when Singletary (15-of-33) and Moss (16-of-33) split snaps evenly. Facing last year’s №10 RB defense isn’t the time to get cute.
Update: Zack Moss was a healthy scratch after doing little in the preseason. Devin Singletary is suddenly a viable flex play in all formats, particularly PPR, with only Matt Breida around to spell him. Singletary was the clear-cut starter in the preseason and even in the Bills’ Wild Card game last year. Singletary should play almost all passing downs and is 50/50 for the goal-line work, too. This is also bullish for all Bills’ pass-catchers.
6. Packers (27.25, -4.5) @ NO
Aaron Rodgers added some depth at WR this season, but the offensive line is as weak as it’s been in years with LT David Bahktiari (ACL) out for the foreseeable future and Corey Linsley (PFF’s №1 center) in Los Angeles. It’s the lone relative weakness in the Packers’ №1 passing EPA offense, but that shouldn’t prevent Rodgers from repeating as a top-10 fantasy QB. After losing depth across the board this offseason and with DE David Onyemata (suspended) to start the year, the Saints shouldn’t be viewed quite as highly as their 2020 defensive rankings. Green Bay’s 27.25-point projection (6th) feels appropriate.
Davante Adams should be viewed as the WR1 overall weekly until proven otherwise. An individual matchup against the inconsistent Marshon Lattimore isn’t a big enough concern to knock him off that spot this week. Adams averaged 3.0 more half PPR fantasy points per game than the WR2 overall last year on 3.0 more expected fantasy points per game. … Preseason hype confirms Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be the Packers’ №2 receiver. He offers the most downfield abilities and has a chance to act on them this week. His matchup against Ken Crawley, who hasn’t been a locked-in starter since 2017, is the easiest among the Pack WRs. … A rotation appears to be emerging in the slot with Rodgers’ roommate Randall Cobb, 3rd-round rookie Amari Rodgers, and willing-blocker Allen Lazard all competing. It’s a spot to mostly avoid this week with snap counts and matchup working against all three receivers. C.J. Gardner-Johnson is the Saints’ slot corner. … Robert Tonyan’s individual matchup is difficult (the Saints are 3 deep at safety) and he was fantasy football’s biggest negative touchdown regression candidate after scoring about 6 touchdowns more than expected based on his usage last year. Tonyan still has plenty of touchdown upside in general, but a low-end TE1 season is expected.
Update: Saints CB2 Ken Crawley was placed on injured reserve. That upgrades MVS’s projection slightly.
The RB rotation is unknown going into Week 1. Aaron Jones likely plays more passing downs in 2021 with Jamaal Williams vacating 1.4 third-down touches per game, but 248-pound A.J. Dillon is a legitimate threat to Jones’ goal-line work. Jones also averaged 15.4 PPR points per game with Adams healthy last year and doesn’t get the friendliest matchup against the Saints’ №1 RB defense. He’s a low-end RB1, while Dillon checks in as a touchdown-or-bust flex play in non-full-PPR formats. I admittedly am on a ledge as a Jones fader at ADP. Most analysts have loved him. We’ll see.
7. 49ers (26.75, -7.5) @ DET
Trey Lance (finger) will play, but I’m expecting Jimmy Garoppolo to start. Just how much each quarterback plays is a total mystery, cratering the floor for each. My best guess is Garoppolo plays 80% of the snaps, primarily leaving Lance with short-yardage and trickery. The matchup is obviously ideal against Detroit’s №32 passing EPA and №31 fantasy QB defense. Perhaps a contrarian Garoppolo lineup has enough upside to be justified in DFS.
The only concern with Brandin Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle is passing volume. Kyle Shanahan’s offenses are always mega-efficient thanks to bootleg play action concepts, but the risk is finishing bottom-3 in pass attempts this season. With the 49ers projected for 26.75 points (7th), it’s best to get everyone in starting lineups, particularly with Garoppolo — the better passer right now — expected to start. The Lions were the second worst fantasy WR defense last year. Mohamed Sanu will be the slot in 3-WR sets. … Yeah, George Kittle against the Lions. That’s a smash spot.
Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon are set for monster efficiency as talented backs in Kyle Shanahan’s explosive run game. Beat reports project for upwards of 500 carries this season, so there’s room for both backs to operate as upside RB2/flex plays immediately. There’s not a better way to kick that off than opening up against last year’s №30 rushing EPA defense as 7.5-point favorites. Expect Mostert to handle the “lightning” run plays, while Sermon eats in short-yardage situations. Mostert is the slightly better bet in Week 1 after playing the first drive in the preseason finale. I’m curious to see who plays in passing situations.
Update: What the hell. Trey Sermon was healthy scratched despite being the RB2 from OTAs on. There’s no word on why this happened, but Raheem Mostert immediately vaults from RB2 to RB1 as a massive favorite with little competition in the backfield. It’s unclear if Eli Mitchell or Ja’Mycal Hasty will be the player to spell Mostert, so they’re hard to trust outside of the deepest of leagues. This will be the biggest non-injury storyline of the week. We’ll learn why this happened when Kyle Shanahan talks to the media.
Update: 49ers’ reporter Cam Inman notes that Eli Mitchell is the RB2 in pre-game warmups.
8. Rams (26.0, -7.5) vs. CHI
The Bears’ passing defense took a step back last year (18th in passing EPA), and they lost their CB1 Kyle Fuller this offseason. In the first-ever game with fans in the new stadium, Matthew Stafford is in a “fade name brand” matchup at home with his OL and pass-catchers healthy. Stafford has never played in a play-action heavy offense (that’s changing now), and Sean McVay will likely return to top-5 pace this season after putting the training wheels on last year (12th in neutral pace). More deep shots elevates the weekly ceiling for the entire Rams offense.
Robert Woods was half PPR’s WR16 per game on WR13 fantasy usage last year despite a career-low aDOT (6.7). More intermediate pass attempts and better pass efficiency (22nd in EPA last year) with the Rams’ QB upgrade could quietly vault Woods into the low-end WR1 mix. For the same reasons, Cooper Kupp offers an under-appreciated ceiling following a WR32 per-game finish in half PPR last year. The third WR spot will be a play-specific rotation led by 2020 2nd-rounder Van Jefferson and veteran deep threat DeSean Jackson. They are only DFS stacking options with 2nd-round rookie TuTu Atwell also potentially in the mix. … Tyler Higbee has a ceiling to chase. He was the TE4 out of 43 qualifiers in PPR points over expected (+2.0), TE9 in yards per route run, and TE8 in passer rating last year. Higbee busted in 2020 because he finished 26th in routes per game, but that easily could change with run-blocker Brycen Hopkins replacing Gerald Everett (33rd in routes per game) this offseason. Chicago oddly was the 29th defense against TEs.
With a switch from power to outside zone, the Rams hope Sony Michel will know enough of the playbook to play a dozen or so snaps in Week 1. He could be a thorn in Darrell Henderson’s side long-term, but Hendo has the upper hand this week as 7.5-point home favorites. The Rams have never committed to the Memphis product as a full-time player, so he’ll need the goal-line work to be an RB2. The Bears’ №18 rushing EPA defense isn’t a major hurdle, particularly with LB Danny Trevathan (knee) landing on injured reserve.
9. Falcons (25.75, -3.5) vs. PHI
Arthur Smith is a major coaching upgrade. His Tennessee offense was 3rd in neutral offensive pace and led in play action rate (36%), something that aided to Matt Ryan’s MVP season a few years ago. Familiarity with this Shanahan-style scheme should allow Ryan to compete as a fantasy QB2 immediately. As evidenced by Vegas’ 25.75-point projection (9th), this week’s home matchup is slightly favorable against Philly’s №20 defense versus fantasy QBs.
The Eagles are better up front than they are in the secondary, even with the FS Anthony Harris addition. Their CB1 Darius Slayton was inconsistent last year and shouldn’t be viewed as a negative to Calvin Ridley’s top-5 outlook. He was half PPR’s WR4 on WR2 fantasy usage last year, and even averaged +1.5 more expected fantasy points per game without Julio Jones presence. He’s my favorite to lead the NFL in air yards, and he should get a yards per route run boost now that the Falcons will implement more 2-TE sets. Russell Gage will join Ridley in 2-WR sets. He averaged 12.5 expected PPR points per game without Jones last year as a WR4/5 option. Low-volume deep threat Olamide Zaccheus will be a 3-WR set starter but is only a DFS stacking option in general. Philly was 25th against fantasy WRs last year. … Kyle Pitts is likely to play more snaps in the slot or out wide compared to inline, and he won’t come off the field for many 11-personnel snaps either. It’s the ideal role for fantasy production, and Smith is coming off a season where he used 12-personnel on passing plays at the 3rd-highest rate. Any snap matched up against the Eagles’ worrisome linebackers is advantage Pitts.
Mike Davis’ primary competition for RB snaps are WR-convert Cordarrelle Patterson and 49ers’ training camp cut Wayne Gallman. The latter is a bigger threat long-term than he is to start the season with Davis being a Falcons priority in free agency and Gallman just being added. The thicc back will handle goal-to-go situations and has always been a reasonable receiver out of the backfield. In fact, he only trailed David Montgomery in broken tackles forced per reception last year. 13–16 carries and 3–5 targets shouldn’t come as a surprise. Between-the-tackles efficiency against Philly’s stout run defense (12th vs. RBs) is the only concern here with the Falcons closing as 3.5-point favorites.
Update: Wayne Gallman was a healthy scratch, leaving Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, and recently-waived-then-signed plodder Qadree Ollison as the RB options as home favorites. I have Davis right inside the top-15 RBs. It’s a volume week.
10. Vikings (25.75, -3.5) @ CIN
The Bengals’ dead last adjusted sack rate defense arguably downgraded this offseason with DE Trey Hendrickson swapping in for DE Carl Lawson. Cincy will be without CB1 Trae Waynes this week, forcing Eli Apple into the starting lineup. This is welcomed news to plexiglass boy Kirk Cousins, who has finished 12th, 18th, 16th, and 9th in fantasy points per game in recent seasons. Minnesota projects to score the 10th-most points in Week 1. Cousins is a bankable QB2 here.
A grade 1 AC Joint sprain shouldn’t hold Justin Jefferson back, and this could be his easiest individual matchup of the entire season. The Vikings’ losses of Irv Smith (knee) and Kyle Rudolph (FA) narrow an already tight target tree. Jefferson has reasonable odds of repeating as the NFL’s №1 WR in yards per route run versus man coverage. He’s my WR4 overall this week. Adam Thielen is a quality WR2 play with matchup on his side. Following the Vikings’ Week 7 bye, Thielen averaged 15.7 PPR points per game (albeit on a lot of TD luck) while Jefferson operated as the №1. The Vikings’ 3rd WR is a position up for grabs. Training camp reports suggest it’s currently K.J. Osborn. … Tyler Conklin missed the entire preseason with a hamstring injury, but the 70th-percentile athlete has 3-down upside if healthy. He handled a 15% target share in the 4 games Rudolph missed last year, and that was with Irv Smith around. I’m modestly intrigued pending injury reports.
Updated: Tyler Conklin (hamstring) was a full participant on Thursday and Friday. Let’s ride him as a sneaky upside TE2.
Dalvin Cook is set for lift off as a 3.5-point favorite over last year’s №25 fantasy RB defense. He was half PPR’s RB1 per game (22.6) on RB1 fantasy usage (19.2 expected half PPR points) last year and not much has changed for his individual projection. Cook is locked into the top-3 RBs.
11. Seahawks (25.5, -2.5) @ IND
The Seahawks’ inability to adapt against more two-high safety looks forced an OC change this offseason. Shane Waldron’s system will be put to the test immediately against … wait for it … Indianapolis’ league-leading Cover 2 zone defense. Russell Wilson will be forced into more underneath attempts this week, something that plays into the Colts’ favor in general. A slower-paced road game doesn’t scream “ceiling” for Wilson, but this offense is largely an unknown. When in doubt, rank Wilson as a mid- to low-end QB1.
Based on offseason research, Cover 2 zone defenses are the ones to note in matchup columns like this one because there’s a notable shift to more underneath targets. That plays into Tyler Lockett’s strengths as a veteran slot target with QB/WR chemistry. Last year, Lockett (36–410–3) out-produced DK Metcalf (26–337–1) against two-high zone coverages like the one they’ll face against the Colts this week. In fact, Lockett’s 410 yards were the 2nd highest in the NFL. Both Metcalf and Lockett are borderline top-12 options capable of big plays. The 3rd WR is second-round rookie Dee Eskridge, who missed a ton of preseason time but offers a “better in best ball” skillset as a speedster who did a lot of damage on skinny posts at Western Michigan. … Gerald Everett (13 first-team snaps) split time evenly with Will Dissly (12) this preseason. That takes some of the wind out of Everett’s upside TE2 sails. Stud LB Darius Leonard sitting in the middle of 5 underneath Cover 2 zone defenders made them a top-4 unit against fantasy TEs last year.
Update: Colts CB1 Xavier Rhodes and depth DE Kemoko Turay are out.
Chris Carson was half PPR’s RB12 per game on RB21 fantasy usage last season, and not much has changed aside from adding veteran RG Gabe Jackson and possibly getting Rashaad Penny (knee) back for more work. Led by DT DeForest Buckner, the Colts were 8th versus fantasy RBs last year. Carson is the definition of an RB2.
12. Panthers (24.75, -5) vs. NYJ
In three seasons under Adam Gase, Sam Darnold ranked 35th, 25th, and 32nd in fantasy points per game. We should expect statistical improvements, particularly in OC Joe Brady’s spread offense. Last year, Teddy Bridgewater was 23rd in fantasy points per game, a fair over/under for Darnold this season. Not only does the USC alum get the #RevengeGame narrative, but he also gets the MFin Jets defense to pick apart. They’re missing their free agent splash DE Carl Lawson and trot out arguably the worst position group in all of football at cornerback. That combination led New York to finishing 30th against fantasy quarterbacks. Darnold is an upside QB2 with Carolina projected for the 12th most points of the week.
D.J. Moore (WR23 per game in half PPR) and Robby Anderson (WR26) have upside WR2 matchups this week in a cupcake home matchup. The Jets just cut their projected CB1 this week, which should push multiple Day 3 rookie CBs onto the field. This is a major “Rookie CB Alert” for Anderson and second-rounder Terrace Marshall, who matchups up with 5th-round CB Michael Carter on the inside. A ceiling game from any one (or two) of these receivers will not be a surprise. Oh yeah, don’t forget that this is a #RevengeGame for Robby, too. … Dan Arnold is essentially a slot receiver in a tight end’s body. He won’t play every down, but he offers TE3 appeal in a plus matchup. The Jets gave up 5.7 more fantasy points per game than their opponent’s TEs average last year. That was by far the highest in the NFL.
Christian McCaffrey was the consensus №1 overall player in fantasy this offseason, and now the Panthers are 5-point home favorites against last year’s second-worst team. Let’s not waste words here.
13. Cardinals (24.5, +3) @ TEN
Kyler Murray has QB1 overall potential in the season opener against Football Outsiders’ worst-ranked defense heading into 2021. Not only were the Titans were 31st in adjusted sack rate and 28th in passing EPA last year, but they also play at the third-quickest pace on offense, a breeding ground for fantasy production. Before injuring his shoulder in Week 11, Murray had the most fantasy points of any quarterback of all time in their first 10 weeks (and he did that in 9 games).
DeAndre Hopkins might take a small target share dip with more target competition, but this isn’t the week to be concerned with that. The Titans were 30th against fantasy WRs last season and soon-to-be 33-year-old Janoris Jenkins will be tasked with covering Hopkins this week. A.J. Green projects for a large snap share as the second outside receiver, and his league-worst efficiency should rebound as long as he’s rejuvenated by the new culture. This is one of Green’s best odds of flex production before his age kicks in later in the year. Second-round athletic freak Rondale Moore has a “Rookie CB Alert” with third-rounder Elijah Molden starting in the slot for Tennessee. Expect screen production immediately, making him a viable upside play in full PPR. Christian Kirk likely needs an injury to be in the mix.
Chase Edmonds played 7-of-9 first-team snaps in the Cardinals’ preseason dress rehearsal and should be viewed as the 1A to start the season. As 3-point dogs, Edmonds gets a slight game-script bump over potential goal-line vulture James Conner. Both are in quality spots given the Cardinals 24.5-point projection and the Titans’ №27 defense against fantasy RBs.
14. Jaguars (23.75, -3) @ HOU
Urban Meyer is on my radar. All decisions, aside from the №1 overall pick, have been beyond questionable, but this is not the week to fade the Jaguars offense. Trevor Lawrence looked the part in the preseason, and he catches last year’s №30 passing EPA defense to open the season. Houston lost their best defensive player this offseason, leaving 31-year-old Whitney Mercilus and Jordan Jenkins (2.0 sacks last year) as starting edge rushers. Vegas’ 23.75-point projection (14th) locks Lawrence into the upside QB2 conversation. Don’t forget that Lawrence averaged 30.6 rushing yards and 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game across his last two college seasons.
D.J. Chark (finger) is reportedly healthy, and his job seems secure following a mind-numbing amount of turnover at backup WR this past week. Chark and (OC Darrell Bevell buddy) Marvin Jones will start on the perimeter and in 2-WR sets. It’s unclear who will lead the team in air yards and red zone targets. Twitter favorite Laviska Shenault will start in the slot, and he’s an ancillary beneficiary of Travis Etienne’s season-ending injury. Shenault can be used in the Percy Harvin role that Meyer is fascinated with. He battles with beyond-prime slot CB Desmond King this week. All three WRs have plus matchups, however. The tanking Texans were 24th against the position last year. … Run-blocker Chris Manhertz will eat into pass-catcher James O’Shaughnessy’s playing time. Avoid, obviously.
We have to decide if James Robinson is good or not. I believe he offers a three-down skillset and can run laps around 31-year-old Carlos Hyde. Robinson doesn’t need a 90% snap rate to pay off as an RB2 this season. He was half PPR’s RB6 per game on RB10 fantasy usage in 2020 with a laughably bad offense around him, as evidenced by his RB50 ranking in inside the 5-yard line carries per game. Hyde is most likely to steal the largely-useless between-the-20s carries on early downs, while Robinson plays in the red zone and on passing downs. Houston was dead last in rushing EPA defense while olé-ing the most fantasy points to RBs last year.
15. Browns (23.5, +6) @ KC
Famous last words, but I disagree with Vegas’ 23.5-point projection for the Browns. After returning all offensive starters in year two of Kevin Stefanski’s system, Cleveland should be more aggressive with pace and neutral pass rate. Baker Mayfield looked comfortable down the stretch and has more downfield explosiveness at WR now. Because teams typically are chasing points, the Chiefs were 25th against fantasy QBs last year. Mayfield has QB2 appeal with everyone around him healthy.
Odell Beckham Jr. was rebounding in Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception last year before tearing his ACL, and all preseason reports suggest Beckham’s rehab went well. A WR3 in best ball, Beckham faces a unit that lost one of their every-down corners this offseason, but the defense under coach Steve Spagnuol is well coached. The Chiefs’ Cover 2 defense limited big plays last year, leading to a №2 finish against fantasy WRs. Stylistically, Jarvis Landry is a good match against the Chiefs defense, and his matchup is reasonable against former first-round bust Mike Hughes, who signed a $1.8M contract this offseason. This is one of his best opportunities for WR3/flex production. Donovan Peoples-Jones will be the Browns’ low-volume deep threat in 3-WR sets. Only 51% of the Browns’ pass attempts came in 11-personnel (29th) a season ago. … Austin Hooper looks to rebound after an injury-filled first season in Cleveland. He uncharacteristically was the TE41 in fantasy points over expected while limping to a TE22 per-game finish in half PPR. His matchup against the Chiefs’ iffy linebackers and FS Daniel Sorensen is very winnable. This unit was 28th against fantasy TEs last year.
Update: Odell Beckham (ACL) is questionable and could be on a slight snap count in the opener. We’ll see what the latest is following his pre-game warmups. I bet he plays as a boom-bust WR3/flex.
Nick Chubb is about to eat. The Chiefs’ two-high safety usage forces them into lighter boxes, and they don’t have the LB depth to win with it this week. Willie Gay is on injured reserve, leaving slow-footed second-rounder Nick Bolton and slim-built former UDFA Ben Niemann in the 3-LB set starting lineup. The Chiefs were 31st in rushing EPA last year. A 100-yard Chubb game won’t be a surprise to me, even in negative game script. He was half PPR’s RB4 per game last year. Kareem Hunt averaged 14.0 PPR points on 13.9 expected PPR points with Nick Chubb last year and theoretically benefits if the Browns are trailing. His 2.5 third-down touches per game last year ranked 5th among RBs.
16. Patriots (23.25, -3) vs. MIA
We can throw all of last year’s offensive stats out the window. This offense will more closely resemble the 2018–19 Patriots, when they were top-10 in carries while playing with elite pace. Mac Jones’ quick game and accuracy translated in the preseason, but he’ll be tested by a Belichick-like single-high defense to start his career. The Dolphins were 4th in blitz rate last year and confuse QBs at the line of scrimmage with amoeba fronts better than anyone, leading to an 8th-place finish in adjusted sack rate. Jones will likely dink-and-dunk his way to a borderline QB2/3 week. I’m somewhat surprised that Vegas has New England projected to score the 16th-most points this week given the matchup and lack of continuity on offense.
Miami was 3rd in man coverage, so there’s a lot of pressure on Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor to win individual matchups this week. Meyers quietly was 8th among 97 WRs in yards per route run versus man coverage, while Agholor (45th) was better against zone (5th). Because the Dolphins force quick throws, Meyers has the matchup advantage, particularly because he’ll avoid outside CBs Xavien Howard and Byron Murphy when they mix in 11-personnel. From Week 8 on Meyers was 28th in receiving yards per game. I like him as a PPR flex option. Agholor likely will be boom-bust all year. … Kendrick Bourne will get some run in 3-WR sets, but the Patriots will likely come close to leading the NFL in 2-TE usage this year with Hunter Henry (inline) and Jonnu Smith (h-back) signed to mega contracts. Henry’s shoulder injury isn’t expect to have an effect on his Week 1 usage, so both should be viewed as TE2s. The Dolphins worst unit on defense is clearly their LBs.
Update: Nelson Agholor is questionable. If out, expect a rotation at the 2nd and 3rd receiver spots and even more 2-TE sets. Jakobi Meyers is a worthy flex play, even in a so-so matchup.
Damien Harris will be fed now that Sony Michel is gone and 4th-round rookie Rhamondre Stevenson (dislocated thumb) is questionable. Compared to their 4th-ranked passing EPA defense, Miami struggled stopping the run (22nd) in 2020. Harris is an efficient ball-carrier (5.0 YPC) who benefits from Brandon Thorn’s №4 offensive line. This projects as an RB2 week with the Pats as 3-point home favorites. James White is only relevant in full-PPR leagues but stands to benefit from Cam Newton’s release. In 2019 when the offense was similar to this year’s, he averaged 4.8 receptions and 60.5 total yards per game. That’s likely his season-long ceiling.
Fantasy Blueprint Halftime
The three best ways to support the completely FREE Underblog are: 1) play on Underdog, 2) rate and review The Underdog Football Show, and 3) subscribe to us on YouTube.
Week 1 Preview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmjyMRZzR6c
17. Raiders (23.25, +4.5) vs. BAL
Derek Carr has finished as the QB20, QB23, QB27, and QB24 across his last 4 seasons. Even last year’s strong 7.9 YPA season (5th) wasn’t enough to be a weekly QB2 in Jon Gruden’s slow-paced, balanced offense. Baltimore’s №4 defense against fantasy QBs isn’t the time to get contrarian.
When asked who will lead the WRs in targets, The Athletic’s Vic Tafur said that Gruden wants to prove that Henry Ruggs deserved to be the rookie WR1 last year. Ruggs will need more of an underneath role to be a flex option this year after being a downfield decoy in an offense with a check-down QB. Ruggs’ increased strength and route running will be put to the test against the Ravens’ man-heavy unit. Bryan Edwards’ job will be more difficult as the on-LOS X receiver, but Nelson Agholor made it work last year. Projecting these two receivers (plus slot man Hunter Renfrow) is, unfortunately, an impossible task heading into Week 1 after they didn’t play this preseason. … Darren Waller was the TE2 (13.7 half PPR per game) on TE2 fantasy usage, and nothing about his role looks to have changed this offseason. As 4.5-point home dogs, this matchup projects favorably for the elite TE1. Both of the Ravens starting off-ball linebackers are sophomores.
Update: Ravens outside CB1 Marcus Peters (ACL) is out. I picked the Raiders as my “Underdog of the Week” on The Underdog Football Show.
Josh Jacobs is typically easy to project. Because he doesn’t play on passing downs (only 6% of his touches came on third down last year), Jacobs has averaged 20.1 half PPR points per game in career wins and 9.4 points in career losses. Those splits should remain ugly following the unfathomably horrific back-loaded 2-year, $8.5M guaranteed signing of Kenyan Drake. Behind the №9 fantasy RB defense, the Ravens are 4.5-point favorites.
Update: Ravens LG Richie Incognito (calf) has been ruled out. The Raiders OL is almost entirely overhauled now.
18. Colts (23.0, +2.5) vs. SEA
Carson Wentz (foot) is ready to roll, but we’ll be monitoring his OL until kickoff. Both LT Eric Fisher (achilles) and LG Quinton Nelson (foot) have progressed well and could return sooner than expected. They’ll need to be out there for Wentz to survive against a quietly upgraded Seattle defensive line (DE Kerry Hyder, DT Al Woods, injured OLB Darrell Taylor). Wentz has finished as the QB21, QB14, and QB17 per game since his MVP-like campaign. Indy projects to score the 18th-most points this week.
Update: Eric Fisher is out. Quinton Nelson is likely to play after a full practice Friday.
The analytics bros (which I’m semi apart of) don’t like Michael Pittman much. I’ll make the case. The 34th overall pick last year, Pittman has the size/speed profile (and tape!) of an every-down X receiver. His YPRR and other metrics as a rookie were suppressed by returning quickly from MFin Compartment Leg Syndrome, but he finished with an 111-yard playoff game. Now he faces even less competition with T.Y. Hilton (neck) out indefinitely. Journeyman Zach Pascal will fill in for Hilton in both 11- and 12-personnel, while Parris Campbell remains in a slot-only role. Stylistically, Wentz fits best, as his eyes tend to linger downfield. Seattle’s 26th-ranked fantasy WR defense lost CB1 Shaq Griffin this offseason and failed to replace him with legit talent. This is the worst Seattle CB group in many years. … The Colts TE rotation is unclear going into Week 1.
The best guess for work is Jonathan Taylor on almost all rushing situations and Nyheim Hines taking on more than half of the passing down work. That was the split last year, even when Taylor averaged 88 rushing yards and 2.2 receptions following the Post-Bye Rookie Bump. The matchup on the ground isn’t easy with LBs Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks playing behind a deep DL, but volume should work in Taylor’s favor as a low-end RB1. Hines averaged 65.3 total yards with 3.7 receptions per game from Week 8 on last year. He’s only relevant in deep full PPR leagues when Taylor is healthy.
19. Chargers (22.75, -1) @ WAS
This is an underrated Week 1 matchup, featuring to up-and-coming rosters with offseason upgrades. Justin Herbert, the QB8 per game last year, will play behind the best Chargers OL in a decade with first-round LT Ra’Shawn Slater, All-Pro C Corey Linsley, and veteran RG Matt Feiler joining stable RT Bryan Bulaga. Herbert’s success in unstable pressured pockets should largely be offset by a better OL and a much better coaching staff. Brandon Staley wants to let the offense run through Herbert’s big brain. We should expect Staley to play with pace after being under Sean McVay’s wing recently, and the Chargers strengths are all through the air. Of course, this road matchup isn’t easy. Washington was 6th in adjusted sack rate, 3rd in passing EPA, and 4th against fantasy QBs last year, and their roster didn’t take many hits. Herbert is a mid- to low-end QB1 here.
This likely won’t repeat with more target competition, but Keenan Allen averaged 12.2 targets and 82.6 receiving yards per healthy game with Herbert in 2020. That translated to WR5 overall fantasy usage in half PPR. Mike Williams’ matchup against CB1 William Jackson will be more difficult than Allen’s against slot CB Darryl Roberts. Williams, however, is primed for a career-best season with OC Joe Lombardi putting him in the Michael Thomas role. A more diverse route tree from Williams could level out his consistency in his contract season. This isn’t an easy matchup, but Williams has underrated upside in general this year. We’ll see how much the Chargers let 3rd-round rookie Josh Palmer play in the season opener. His biggest hurdle to snaps is Jalen Guyton after the Bolts waived Tyron Johnson late in camp. … Lombardi favorite Jared Cook is the best bet for TE2 production, but he’s unlikely to be an every-down player at 34 years old, particularly with 6'7" Twitter darling Donald Parham hanging around for red zone work. Washington has two quality safeties (SS Landon Collins and FS Cameron Curl) to throw at these two.
Austin Ekeler’s efficiency dipped while playing through a severe hamstring tear mid-season. He arguably benefits most from the OL and coaching staff upgrades, but only if he gets more goal-line work. Ekeler averaged 0.3 touches per game inside the 5-yard line (56th out of 83 RBs) last year. But Lombardi allowed Underdog Fantasy partner Alvin Kamara to handle 1.6 per game (6th). That’s the difference between an elite RB1 and low-end RB1 season. I’m happy to bet against the Chargers’ RB depth featuring Justin Jackson, Joshua Kelley, and Larry Rountree. As for this week, Ekeler will need to burn first-round rookie LB Jamin Davis in the passing game to hit a ceiling. Washington was 3rd against fantasy RBs last year.
Update: RB Austin Ekeler (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, but he came back on Friday and is expected to play. The Chargers under a new coaching staff could rest the oft-banged up Ekeler in practices this season. He’s a borderline RB1 whenever active. Justin Jackson is the most natural one-for-one replacement if Ekeler is surprisingly out. Joshua Kelley would be the №2 back and possible goal-line preference.
Update: Austin Ekeler is active. He’s a low-end RB1. I theorize that the new Chargers regime will rest veterans in practice far more than the old school Chargers did. That’s what Brandon Staley was doing with the Sean McVay Rams in recent seasons.
20. Saints (22.75, +4.5) vs. GB
Jameis Winston’s revival campaign will be without Michael Thomas for at least a month, but he looked prepared throughout camp and will have a top-2 OL to play behind. As long as he trusts him, Sean Payton should dial up more deep passing this season, leaving Winston with some upside QB2 appeal in good matchups. This isn’t a cupcake opener between two bottom-5 paced offenses, however, as evidenced by Vegas’ 22.75-point projection (20th). Winston’s outlook is complicated by the potential of Taysom Hill goal-line vulturing. It’s best to wait and see if possible.
Marquez Callaway was getting beat-writer buzz before lighting up the preseason. Spoiled by the Vols in college, Callaway has the size/speed profile and recruiting pedigree of being a D.J. Chark-like pro despite iffy collegiate production. Callaway averaged 6.0 targets in the 4 games he had last year with more than 50% snaps, so 6–10 targets in the opener wouldn’t come as a surprise. Callaway’s only Week 1 negative is the threat of elite CB Jaire Alexander. Frustrating tease Tre’Quan Smith averaged 9.7 half PPR points on 8.2 expected half PPR points in games without Michael Thomas last year. I think he’s a worse player than Callaway straight up, but he has the easier matchup in the slot and could be a better stylistic fit with Jameis Winston than he was with NBC booth boy Drew Brees. Updated: Deonte Harris, who didn’t get suspended following an offseason DUI, is the current WR3. … The Saints TE rotation is worth monitoring with Adam Trautman (inline), Juwan Johnson (slot TE), and Taysom Hill (who played TE in practice this week) projected for snaps. Payton could opt for an outlier usage of 2-TE sets while Harris and Thomas are sidelined.
Update: Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) was moved to injured reserve. That leaves Callaway as the clear-cut top target at receiver and a reasonable WR3 play despite Jaire Alexander’s projected coverage. Deonte Harris is the next man up, but he’s viewed as a gadget-type and is unlikely to demand a massive target share outside of screens and jet sweeps. Expect more WR/TE Juwan Johnson this week, while Promo Code Alvin goes nuclear with touches.
Ready for a bold take for my loyal Fantasy Blueprint readers??? Alvin Kamara outscores Christian McCaffrey this season. Everything has gone Kamara’s direction this offseason, most importantly with Winston winning the job and Thomas delaying surgery. AK47 averaged 30.8 PPR points on 24.3 expected PPR points in games Thomas missed last year. The Packers’ two-high safety defense has left them exposed in the run game, and Kamara is a mismatch against LBs De’Vondre Campbell (1-year, $2M) and Krys Barnes (2-year, $1.4M). Tony Jones Jr. is now Kamara’s unquestioned backup with Latavius Murray released.
21. Broncos (22.25, -2.5) @ NYG
With a similar supporting cast, Teddy Bridgewater was the QB23 per game last year. The difference with the Broncos is that they won’t be in negative game scripts as often because of their borderline top-5 defense. Bridgewater faces a tough road matchup against last year’s №4 fantasy QB defense, one that actually added depth this offseason. Bridgewater is a QB3 with Denver projected for 22.25 points (21st).
Courtland Sutton (X), Jerry Jeudy (Z), K.J. Hamler (slot), and Tim Patrick (backup X/Z) cannibalize each other on paper. With the entire unit in and out of the preseason lineup, we go into the season opener with more questions than answers. Sutton (ACL) looked much better in the dress rehearsal than he did early in camp, but surgery-returning players tend to start slow in the regular season and he’ll battle with Giants’ CB1 James Bradberry on the perimeter as a flex option. Jeudy’s matchup is slightly easier against Adoree Jackson, and he entered the year as one of fantasy’s biggest positive regression candidates following an odd year of drops and uncatchable passes. I’ll be ranking Jeudy ahead of Sutton early on, but don’t feel confident in that. Hamler is a big-play dart throw out of the slot against Darnay Holmes. He was the WR85 per game last year without Sutton active. … Noah Fant (leg) needs to be monitored. He’s a candidate to be a top-5 real-life tight end this year, but target competition and QB play are working against him. The inline tight end will go against last year’s №15 fantasy TE defense this week. Albert Okweugbunam would start if Fant’s injury lingers.
Melvin Gordon (groin) played in the preseason finale, while 2nd-round rookie Javonte Williams was put on ice after having a great camp. Gordon’s salary (4th highest of all RBs) locks him into a role early in the season, likely on passing downs. Williams could separate between the tackles if Gordon is slowed by his soft-tissue injury. With that said, I’m worried the early-year hype on Williams will be spoiled by a 40/60 or 50/50 split here. That’s what Benjamin Allbright is projecting. Remember, the Broncos’ RBs were 27th in fantasy usage last year, so a split would be nearly impossible to overcome. New York also has some big dogs inside with NT Danny Shelton, DT Dexter Lawrence, and DT Leonard Williams headlining the group. I’m okay with benching Williams for Raheem Mostert-like RB2/3s this week.
22. Bengals (22.5, +3.5) vs. MIN
Joe Burrow didn’t just tear his ACL. There was other damage, too, and this happened in the second half of the 2020 season. A slow preseason (and a slow 2021 season) shouldn’t be a surprise. Burrow’s leg injury could cost him valuable rushing production and possibly in-pocket confidence behind a consensus bottom-10 OL. Mike Zimmer, known for his disguise, has more weaponry this year, so we can largely toss out the Vikings’ poor defensive metrics from yesteryear. The Bengals’ below-average 22.5-point Vegas projection (22nd) plays against Burrow’s upside QB2 case in Week 1.
It’s entirely unclear how targets will be split between Ja’Marr Chase (X/Z), Tee Higgins (X/Z), and Tyler Boyd (slot). A reasonable baseline is to look at expected full PPR fantasy points in games Burrow played last year: Boyd (15.5), Green (14.3), and Higgins (13.9). I’m not convinced the Bengals will be quite as pass-heavy this time around given the circumstances, but upside WR3 outlooks are fair all around, as long as Chase regains his confidence following a 2020 season on the couch. There’s nothing about Patrick Peterson, Breshad Breeland, and the rest of the Vikings’ CBs that should worry us from a matchup perspective. If forced to rank (I am), give me Higgins, Boyd, then Chase. … C.J. Uzomah (achilles) is back to untargeted run wind sprints down the seam.
Joe Mixon has never been in a better environment to be a fantasy RB1. His OL coach from the last two years now coaches at MFin Texas State. Giovani Bernard leaves behind 53 targets per season. And Burrow’s presence should provide for more goal-line opportunities overall. Before he injured his foot, Mixon had 6 and 8 targets when the Bengals finally benched Gio. I could see Mixon finishing inside the top-6 in fantasy usage this season. The Vikings’ bolstered DL will be better than their 2020 numbers suggests, but I like Mixon early on when the Bengals could opt to hide Burrow slightly more than normal.
Update: Vikings LB Anthony Barr is out.
23. Eagles (22.25, +3.5) @ ATL
This is the perfect environment for Jalen Hurts to cash in on those QB1 weeks. His elderly OL is relatively healthy, his pass-catchers are all available, and the Falcons are in rebuild mode defensively. They were 32nd against fantasy QBs last year and don’t have the LB/S depth to prevent chunk gains on the ground from Hurts. The threat here is DC Dean Peas giving Hurts hell with fancy looks, but it’s not enough to bet against Hurts’ rushing production. He had 106, 63, 69, and 34-yard rushing totals as a starter last year in similarly-paced games as this one. Arthur Smith’s Titans were 3rd in neutral pace last year.
DeVonta Smith is going to be very good. His route running translated immediately in the preseason, and his rare football IQ will be a major asset for Hurts, particularly against zone coverage. Smith led college football in EPA per target against zone last year, something he’ll face a ton with defenses unwilling to play man coverage against the scrambling Hurts. Smith, a weekly WR3/flex for me, versus CB1 A.J. Terrell is a fun one. Jalen Reagor didn’t do anything on preseason tape to change his outlook following a troubling rookie campaign. He should start in 2-WR sets, but explosive slot man Quez Watkins is a legit threat long term. This is a week for Reagor or Watkins to pop up for a spiked week. They’ll draw CB2 Fabian Moreau and slot CB Isaiah Oliver in coverage. Atlanta was dead last against the position in 2020. … In their last 4 games together, the newly-blonde Zach Ertz ran more routes (32.25 per game) than Dallas Goedert (25.5), a similar split to what we saw this preseason when Ertz was lining up in the slot over Goedert. The latter is a better player, but he’s likely to have high-end TE2 usage than the low-end TE1 usage he was being drafted at early in best ball. 4–6 targets per game should be expected for each with Smitty around to soak in more targets.
Miles Sanders is a candidate to lose more passing work this season with Boston Scott and Kenny Gainwell rounding out the depth chart, particularly after struggling with drops in camp. Still, Sanders projects reasonably well on the ground with the dual-threat Hurts opening up more lanes. This matchup isn’t as easy as it sounds on paper, however. The Falcons, led by stud DT Grady Jarrett, were 3rd in rushing EPA and actually forced teams into top-5 neutral pass rates against them in 2020. Sanders is a low-end RB2 after finishing as the RB15 per game on RB14 usage last year.
24. Cowboys (22.0, +7.5) @ TB
The Cowboys’ injury concerns are unfortunately not behind them after getting lit up by them in 2020. Dak Prescott (lat) barely threw passes this preseason, but reports suggest he’s ready to go for Week 1. Prescott needs to be if Dallas has any upset chance. As 7.5-point dogs, Prescott’s passing volume projects highly, particularly with both teams ranking inside the top-5 in neutral offensive pace. Because of the Bucs’ league-leading rushing EPA defense, teams were forced into the highest neutral pass rate when facing Tampa last year. Expect Prescott to backdoor into top-10 QB production despite injury, matchup, All-Pro RG Zack Martin’s COVID-19 stint, and RT La’El Collins’ (questionable) stinger working against him.
Target share between CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper (ankle), and Michael Gallup is unknown. Lamb did get a slight workload bump this preseason by playing in 2-WR sets for the first time in his NFL career, and he has the easiest individual role and weekly matchup as the primary slot player in 3-WR sets. Gallup is on the far end of the spectrum as their X receiver and primary deep threat. He was a distant 3rd WR in Prescott starts last year — Cooper (17.4 PPR points), Lamb (17.1), Gallup (11.1). After not practicing for 6 months following a “clean up” procedure in January, Cooper has the most volatile projection. If he’s truly healthy like recent camp videos suggest, Cooper was a low-end WR1 at a low-end WR2 price tag this offseason. I’m not concerned about any of their individual WR/CB matchups this week because volume will assuredly be on their side. … Blake Jarwin and Dalton Schultz split first-team preseason work, but Jarwin could separate from Schultz (the far inferior passing option) as he progresses from his ACL tear. Their Week 1 usage is unknown, and their individual matchups against LBs Lavonte David and Devin White and Ss Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield Jr. are fairly difficult.
A 10-pound lighter Ezekiel Elliott is anticipated to bounce back after his career-worst season. I dubbed Zeke “fantasy’s biggest positive regression candidate” this offseason after my model said he scored 5.7 fewer rushing touchdowns than expected based on his usage. This week’s matchup in the trenches favors Tampa given Martin’s absence, but Zeke won’t lose too many snaps to Tony Pollard (6.0 PPR points per game with Zeke) and projects well as a check-down option. Elliott averaged 22.7 PPR points on 24.7 expected PPR points per game last year with his starting QB.
25. Washington (21.75, +1) vs. LAC
Among 45 QBs since 2018, Ryan Fitzpatrick is 4th in success rate, 9th in yards per attempt, 12th in EPA per dropback, 13th in comp % over expected, and 18th in fantasy points per game. An underrated player, Fitzmagic offers QB2 potential in plus matchups. Consider this an average one against Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and elite defensive mind Brandon Staley. Fitzpatrick will be forced into a more dink-and-dunk game than normal against Staley’s two-high defense, limiting his ceiling potential. Washington is 25th in implied points this week.
Terry McLaurin has the QB upgraded needed to cash in on last year’s WR11 fantasy usage. It was impossible for him to break out in the №31 passing EPA offense, but now he’ll have more red zone opportunities and a three-level passing attack in general. McLaurin, a borderline WR1/2 in most games, faces CB1 Michael ‘Vato’ Davis individually. Curtis Samuel (groin) appeared to re-injure himself this week after rarely practicing since June 1st. I anticipate 3rd-round rookie Dyami Brown (who is a damn good prospect analytically and on tape) to play the most snaps in his place, though veteran Cam Sims is ready to be a party pooper. Brown, who has a “Rookie CB Alert” with Asante Samuel Jr. projected to start as the second outside CB, is a WR5 dart throw assuming Samuel is out. I’d rather role the dice with him than play pants-on/lights-off sex slot WR Adam Humphries. … Logan Thomas was the TE4 in fantasy usage on the most routes run per game last year. He’s in the ideal role for production, and his YPRR metrics don’t account for the bad QB he had last year. They also don’t account for him competing in 3-WR sets when other TEs primarily run routes in 2-WR sets. Anyways, Thomas is a mid- to low-end TE1 this week with potential All-Pro SS Derwin James likely drawing him in coverage. Can’t wait to see James back.
Update: Curtis Samuel (groin) went on injured reserve.
Antonio Gibson didn’t get the passing down work we were hoping for in the preseason, but Gibson still projects well in positive and neutral game scripts. After the Post-Bye Rookie Bump, Gibson averaged 16.7 expected PPR points, good enough to be ranked on the RB1/2 border. J.D. McKissic’s on/off splits with Alex Smith are glaring, and Gibson should eat into some of his passing game work in year two. He’s off the radar outside of when Washington is 7-point dogs.
26. Steelers (20.75, +6.5) @ BUF
I theorize that we’ve underestimated the odds that Ben Roethlisberger could have a bounce-back campaign after throwing 1,000s of passes last offseason while rehabbing. He’s lost weight and claims to feel better this year than last. More motion and more under-center snaps under new OC Matt Canada should help fix the redundancy of the 2020 Steelers offense. This is a matchup to get contrarian in QB2 rankings with Pittsburgh opening as 6.5-point favorites in a fast-paced environment. The Bills were 15th against fantasy QBs.
The Steelers’ distribution of targets could change with a new OC and a potentially recharged Big Ben. After finishing 28th in aDOT last year, I’m anticipating more deep passes with Najee Harris providing some semblance of a rushing attack (even if we aren’t in on the OL). That’d be great news for freak athlete Chase Claypool, who was 7th out of 97 WRs in YPRR vs. man coverage last year despite being a raw player in general. Claypool needs to play in 2-TE sets to beat out last year’s WR25 per-game finish in half PPR. He ran only 3 routes in 12-personnel last year. Diontae Johnson, the WR19 per game in half PPR despite all the drops, is an every-down player at X receiver and was the team’s best player against zone coverage (32nd in YPRR). Buffalo plays zone coverage at above-average rates. He’s an upside WR2/3 against stud CB1 Tre’Davious White. JuJu Smith-Schuster should benefit from negative game script as a WR3/flex play in full PPR leagues, even if he’s a lock to decline from last year’s WR17 per-game finish. … 2nd-round rookie Pat Freiermuth is a legit threat to Eric Ebron’s every-down workload. The youngster is more athletic and the future at the position. These two likely cannibalize each other from consistent TE2 production, and I wouldn’t bet on Buffalo’s No. 31 finish against fantasy TEs repeating this year. They’ll get that cleaned up.
Najee Harris barely came off the field the preseason, and Anthony McFarland is on injured reserve to open the season. Harris projects for elite usage, both on the ground and through the air. He caught 42 passes at Bam Bam last year. It’s hard not to rank him as a borderline RB1 despite the lowly team total (20.75).
27. Texans (20.75, +3) vs. JAX
How the hell are the Texans not projected to score the fewest points this week? Also, why are you reading about the Texans’ fantasy projection right now??? Go outside.
Okay, fine. I’ll at least talk about the WRs. Based on preseason usage, Brandin Cooks and explosive 3rd-round rookie Nico Collins will start on the perimeter over crypto bro Chris Conley. The Jaguars are trotting out a new defense with a bunch of new players, so it’s possible that communication is an issue Week 1. This is one of Cooks’ best opportunities for WR3/flex production. I don’t expect Houston to be projected for 20.5 points too often. Collins deserves a bench pick-up in 12-team leagues while we see what he can do with a full complement of snaps. The Texans’ slot WR spot is up for grabs. Anthony Miller (shoulder) practiced this week, but 36-year-old super star dater Danny Amendola was signed yesterday. … Don’t play them, or any of the Texans’ TEs.
Mark Ingram II (10 snaps), David Johnson (9), Phillip Lindsay (5), and Rex Burkhead (3) all played with the first-team in the preseason finale. You are beyond screwed if you’re starting them in fantasy.
28. Dolphins (20.25, +3) @ NE
Vegas doesn’t like the Dolphins’ offense this week (28th in implied points). It’s easy to see why. The Patriots defense is retooled, minus CB1 Stephon Gillmore, and the Dolphins’ OL arguably is the very worst in the NFL. Bill Belichick is licking his chops to pressure Tua Tagovailoa, who will be without WR1 Will Fuller here. Miami’s slow-paced offense (25th) is led by co-coordinators. I’m in wait-and-see mode with the sophomore in all formats.
No Will Fuller (beaver tranquilizer, shoutout Ian Hartitz) means DeVante Parker will be the top outside option. Because of the scheme and Belichick’s genius, the Patriots’ undermanned defense still finished 9th against fantasy WRs last year. I think Belichick will live with Jalen Mills and J.C. Jackson in 1-on-1 against Parker, while putting two bodies on the more explosive Jaylen Waddle in the Patriots’ staple bracket coverage. I’m nervous about the trenches spoiling efficiency for both Parker and Waddle, unless Tagovailoa is an entirely different player in year two. Parker averaged a pathetic 10.1 PPR points with Tua compared to 14.8 with Fitzpatrick. … Mike Gesicki has a very tough matchup against the №3 fantasy TE defense. He gets athletic specialist Kyle Dugger plus a bunch of veterans in the middle of the field. He is a beneficiary of Fuller’s suspension, however, leaving him in the upside TE2 conversation. Adam Shaheen (COVID-19) not playing bolsters Gesicki’s outlook.
The Dolphins run-blocking is about to get demolished by the Patriots’ completely overhauled defensive front seven. Don’t put any weight into that 28th rushing EPA ranking. According to beat reporters and preseason usage, Myles Gaskin should handle the most snaps, but his inability to play through contact isn’t a great stylistic fit behind this spaghetti strainer OL. He will catch some dump-off passes for those in full-PPR formats as a flex option. Hopefully Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed don’t see many snaps. Their snap counts with the first-team offense two weeks ago: Gaskin (17-of-35), Ahmed (13), Brown (5).
29. Giants (19.75, +2.5) vs. DEN
Aside from the D-III Texans, the Giants probably have the least inspiring QB, OL, and OC combination in the NFL. Daniel Jones, who threw 12 TDs in 16 games last year, had to deal with training camp retirements from multiple linemen, and opens the year against a projected top-5 defense with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb coming off the edge. Jones will be a bottom-6 QB this week for me. The Giants are projected for 19.75 points (29th).
Kenny Golladay (hamstring) will play and start at X receiver along side Sterling Shepard (slot) and Darius Slayton (Z). Questionable first-rounder Kadarius Toney (hamstring) will also mix in, mostly in the slot as a gadget-only player and return specialist. Denver’s №13 fantasy WR defense was upgraded this offseason and now goes four deep with the addition of №9 overall pick Patrick Surtain. Golladay (air yards) and Shepard (targets) are the best bets for production, but the free agent acquisition isn’t a must play coming off injury. View all as low-floor desperate flex plays. … No Evan Engram (calf) opens things up for Kyle Rudolph as a mid- to low-end TE2. Rudolph can do a great Jason Witten impression as Jason Garrett’s new catch and fall tight end on 4-yard hitches.
Saquon Barkley (ACL) was limited in practice all week and is officially questionable to play. I’m assuming he’s active, starts, and has at least a 50% snap share. The Giants are unlikely to give him the full Barkley workload because he just began practicing and has barely been touched in practice, but season-long drafters are best off rolling the dice whenever he’s active. The Giants bad offensive line faces a Broncos DL that’s much healthier than it was in 2021. Barkley is a boom-bust RB2 this week unless we get more news from Adam Schefter.
Update: Saquon Barkley reporting is all over the place. I’m assuming he will be eased in. I’d set the over/under for touches at 12.5, making him a boom-bust RB2. There’s obviously way more upside if you want the risk.
30. Jets (19.75, +5) @ CAR
Zach Wilson looked the part in the preseason despite not having his promising young receiver with him. Wilson’s arm talent and decision-making deserve more love than Vegas’ 19.75-point projection (30th) suggests, especially if Carolina’s young defense struggles early. Expect a lot of play action out of 2-WR sets for Wilson, who ran a lot of this Shanahan-inspired offense at BYU.
I’m betting against the “Don’t overreact to the preseason” bros when it comes to Corey Davis’ climb. He dominated targets in a limited sample (10 targets on 13 routes run lmao), but there are schematic reasons why that go beyond just Elijah Moore missing time. We can expect the Jets to be in the bottom-5 in WR routes run per dropback because they are one of the few teams to use a fullback or a second tight end on their dropbacks. WRs average 0.67 more yards per route run in 2-WR sets compared to 3-WR sets for this reason. Plus, Shanahan’s offense relies on the X receiver in general. That’s where Davis is playing this year. I like his odds against Donte Jackson and/or Jaycee Horn who sounds the “Rookie CB Alert”. For these same reasons, it’s hard not to be bullish on 33rd overall pick Elijah Moore who tore up camp before his hamstring fired up. Moore was a 94th percentile prospect in my model and compared to Tyler Lockett on tape. He should eat with schemed touches in this heavy 2-WR set offense. Moore could be sent to the moon early if Jamison Crowder (COVID) is out. … Tyler Kroft is the TE to know if you’re desperate.
Update: Keelan Cole (knee) is out. Even more reasons to get excited for Corey Davis and Elijah Moore.
Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson were starters throughout the preseason ahead of 4th-rounder Michael Carter. This will be a committee, with Coleman playing in traditional rushing situations and Johnson entering the mix on passing downs. I’m not in love with RBBCs on teams projected to score the 30th-most points of the week. If forced to pick (I am), give me Coleman this week against Carolina’s №20 rushing EPA defense.
31. Lions (19.25, +7.5) vs. SF
The only positive of the Lions offense on paper is their OL, but they got their ass kicked this preseason, particularly 1st-rounder Penei Sewell during his transition to the right side of the line. You are screwed if Jared Goff is in your lineup against the 49ers’ slow-paced offense and stacked defensive line.
Update: The 49ers will be without DT Javon Kinlaw and CB Emmanuel Moseley. That’s a slight boost to all Lions.
Update: At the same time, the Lions will be without LT Taylor Decker (finger). That’s a slight downgrade to all Lions.
The 3-WR set for the Lions will be Tyrell Williams (X), Quintez Cephus (Z), and 3rd-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (slot). The latter didn’t play in 2-WR sets this preseason, limiting his ceiling and floor in all formats. Williams, by default, is the best bet for garbage time production at receiver, but he also gets a healthy Jason Verrett on the boundary. … T.J. Hockenson (shoulder) was a full participant on Wednesday. He’s the favorite to lead the team in targets as a light version of 2020 Darren Waller. The issue this week is LB Fred Warner and the 49ers’ №1 defense against the position. Volume, nonetheless, should win out as a mid-range TE1.
D’Andre Swift (groin) also was a full participant after an iffy camp headlined by weird quotes from the coaching staff about his role. Jamaal Williams should be involved on early downs, while Swift racks up garbage time targets left and right. To hit a ceiling, Swift will have to remain the goal-line back after earning that job under a different regime late last season. We go into the opener with more questions than answers. The 49ers were 6th against fantasy RBs and 8th in rushing EPA defense last year.
32. Bears (18.5, +7.5) @ LAR
You have more plums than I if you’re playing Andy Dalton on the road against last year’s №1 fantasy QB and passing EPA defense. There’s a non-zero chance that Justin Fields enters in the second half behind this turnstile OL.
Allen Robinson eventually will be a weekly WR1, but this is a daunting task against the best fantasy WR defense headlined by Jalen Ramsey. He doesn’t always shadow opposing WR1s, so Robinson is still an upside WR2 despite the poor scoring environment. A-Rob was the WR6 in per-game fantasy usage last year, and the Bears didn’t add a legit 3rd receiver this offseason. Darnell Mooney could play more slot snaps this year with outside guys Damiere Byrd and Breshad Perriman swapping in for slot man Anthony Miller. That could even out his consistency and allow OC Matt Nagy to dial up even more schemed touches to him. There’s some risk that Ramsey stays in the star role here and completely squashes Mooney inside. He’s best left on the bench. … Cole Kmet ran more routes and lined up detatched from the offensive line way more this preseason than he did as a rookie. He’s an upside TE2 candidate this year. His individual matchup isn’t as difficult as last year’s stats would indicate with both safeties new to the system. There are worst TE2 streamers than Kmet, as long as Jimmy Graham doesn’t crash the red zone party.
David Montgomery lost weight, changed his diet, added explosiveness, and went to the three-down moon last year following Tarik Cohen’s ACL tear. Damien Williams is a slightly bigger threat to some of that work this year, but Montgomery still has the workload and passing-down skill set we’re looking for in the RB dead zone. In fact, he was the RB1 in forced missed tackles per reception last year. Of course, Montgomery’s ceiling and floor are hit by opponent. Put him on the RB2/3 border and hope he finds the box or catches 5 passes.
See You Next Week!
Remember, the three best ways to support the completely FREE Underblog are: 1) play on Underdog, 2) rate and review The Underdog Football Show, and 3) subscribe to us on YouTube.