Week 3 Fantasy Blueprint
A one-stop column to get you ready for fantasy football with stats and news.
Every week in this column, you’ll see these matchup charts featuring NFL rankings for each offense versus the defense they are playing. The taller the bars, the better the unit is for both the offense and defense. That means we’re looking for a tall offensive bar and a short defensive bar for a great matchup.
The 8 categories will all be 2020 data to start, but I’ll begin adding 2021 data gradually using a sliding scale weighing this year’s data more heavily as the season continues. “Offensive Pace” is Football Outsiders’ neutral offensive pace (for both offenses), so this defensive bar is the only exception where we want the bar to actually be tall. “Sack Rate” is Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, so this helps for finding OL/DL mismatches and defensive streaming. “Pass Efficiency” and “Rush Efficiency” is NFLfastR’s EPA per play. The “FPPG” stats are half PPR points per game for that position.
Underdog Fantasy isn’t just a best ball platform by the way. We have daily contests (“Battle Royal”) and player prop (“Pick’em”) games, too. If you haven’t signed up, use this link or promo code ‘UNDERBLOG’ for a $10 sign-up bonus. We’ll talk about these contests on The Underdog Football Show every week.
Week 3 Fantasy Blueprint
There are 8 teams in the stud tier: Rams, Bills, Cardinals, Bucs, Cowboys, Seahawks, Ravens, and Chiefs. Throw in the Chargers and Browns after them to round out the top-10.
1. Chiefs (31.0 implied points, -6.5 spread) vs. LAC
Nothing has changed for Patrick Mahomes. He’s the QB2 overall in EPA per dropback so far, and the new OL is holding up as expected. Compared to the rest of the NFL, the Chargers have played Mahomes well (260+ yards in 1-of-5 games), but this year’s Chargers can keep pace offensively with the Chiefs, leaving a shootout in the range of outcomes. It’s Mahomes vs. Kyler for QB1 overall right now.
The Ravens sold out to stop Tyreek Hill last week, but Hill is still the WR9 on WR13 fantasy usage going into Week 3 and is averaging 87 yards with 0.94 TDs since 2020. … Mecole Hardman is running a route on 81% of 2021 dropbacks, mostly from the slot. He’s the WR60 out of 90 qualifiers in yards per route run, and the WR66 in fantasy usage so far. He has a weekly ceiling to chase but hasn’t shown the consistency to warrant flex consideration in many leagues. … Demarcus Robinson (55% Week 2 routes) and Bryon Pringle (33%) are splitting snaps as the №3 receiver. You know what you’re getting with them. … Travis Kelce versus elite SS Derwin James is going to be must-see television. He’s helped the Chargers hold Kelce to under 11.0 half PPR points in 7-of-9 career games. With that said, this tough on-paper matchup isn’t enough to fade Kelce as an elite TE1 of course.
Update: Chargers slot CB Chris Harris (shoulder) is out. He would’ve seen some of Tyreek Hill (44% slot snaps) and Mecole Hardman (55%). Individual matchups point to a big Tyreek game.
First off, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks average at best, particularly looking slow in space. He’s dead last in yards after contact per carry and is credited with just 2 forced missed tackles on 27 carries right now per Sports Info Solutions. Not good. With that said, he’s still the Chiefs’ RB1, has played 69% of snaps and ran a route on 59% of dropbacks, and faces little competition in the Kansas City backfield. CEH’s RB32 fantasy usage means he’s only a fringe RB2/3 right now, but I’m not completely writing him off yet. The Chargers are weakest against the run right now in Brandon Staley’s unique gap and a half defensive line that lacks the raw talent to pull it off. There’s still upside to chase with TDs.
Update: Chargers elite EDGE1 Joey Bosa is questionable after 3-straight DNPs. I’m sure that’s partially rest related, but he’s battling a foot/ankle injury. Starting DL Justin Jones has been ruled out, too.
2. Cardinals (29.75, -7.5) @ JAX
Kyler Murray’s fantasy points since 2020 Week 1 excluding games after his Week 11 shoulder injury: 27.3, 33.1, 24.7, 23.1, 27.3, 28.9, 38.1, 37.9, 30.9, 34.6, and 35.1. That’s an average of 31.0. I like his chances against Urban Meyer.
It hasn’t mattered because he’s elite (WR6 overall), but DeAndre Hopkins is the WR48 in fantasy usage on oddly low 18% target and 23% air yards shares. There’s way more competition for targets now, so Hopkins will have to be as good as ever to be a top-10 fantasy WR this season. This week isn’t the time to worry about that obviously after the Jaguars were torched by Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton to start the year. … The Cardinals are still only using 4-WR sets on 25% of their passing plays, so routes run will be split between A.J. Green (86% routes), Christian Kirk (68%), and Rondale Moore (48%). The latter two are competing for the slot job, and both are excelling on their looks. Moore is better (in my opinion), should earn more snaps each week, and has been peppered with targets (mostly screens, quick outs, and slants) when on the field. He’s very risky to play right now with snaps low, but the ceiling is evident even if inconsistent. Because of that, I’m viewing Kirk as an easy sell high (WR20 in half PPR on WR58 fantasy usage) and boom-bust WR4 in the short-term. … And then there’s A.J. Green solidified as a full-time player on the perimeter (at least for now). The production is so-so (WR60 in half PPR), but he has a team-high 4 red zone targets and even made a nice juke in space for a score last week. His WR36 fantasy usage suggests spiked weeks are coming as a WR4/5 in a high-octane offense. … Maxx Williams is the TE14 on TE26 fantasy usage. The Cardinals don’t want to be throwing it to him.
Update: DeAndre Hopkins (ribs) is questionable and a game-time decision after not practicing all week. It’s likely a pain tolerance issue, giving him re-injury risk as well. If out, Rondale Moore shoots up rankings as he’d go from sub-50% route runner to a near every-down player while pushing Christian Kirk out to the perimeter.
Update: Jaguars CB1 C.J. Henderson (groin, illness) and slot CB Tre Herndon (knee) are both questionable after DNP/limited practices all week.
Chase Edmonds has played on 61% of snaps and mostly all passing down situations. He’s being subbed out in short-yardage in favor of the bigger James Conner, who is the RB38 in fantasy usage despite not actually receiving a goal-line carry to date. Those will come as a TD-or-bust RB3. Edmonds is more stable, particularly in full PPR, but doesn’t have the bellcow role for massive spiked weeks. Game script (7.5-point favorites) and fantasy usage (RB27) work against Edmonds’ RB2 case. Jacksonville is obviously terrible (30th) against fantasy RBs.
3. Seahawks (29.0, -2) @ MIN
The Seahawks have a very neutral offense overall, ranking middle of the pack in neutral pace (13th), neutral pass (19th), neutral play action (17th), and neutral shotgun (18th) through two weeks of new OC Shane Waldron. Russell Wilson looks good in it and should be comfortably started as an upside QB1 against the tilted 0–2 Mike Zimmers. Wilson hung 217–3 passing with 58 yards rushing against Minnesota late last year. Seattle is projected for the 2nd most points of the week.
Tyler Lockett is balling. Like WR2 overall in half PPR and WR1 overall over expected balling. This level of efficiency is obviously unsustainable, but Lockett has been a boom-bust WR1/2 in healthy games for the last 24 months. He’s healthy right now, and the Vikings’ CB2 Bashaud Breeland has been getting cooked after switching teams this offseason. D.K. Metcalf will get Patrick Peterson, who has held the alpha to 46, 23, 6, and 0 receiving yards in four career matchups. I don’t care about that, however, and will continue betting on Metcalf’s talent and 30% target share as a volatile WR1. … Both Dee Eskridge (concussion) and Freddie Swain (back) did not practice on Wednesday as potential №3s. … Gerald Everett (70% routes) and Will Dissly (41%) are splitting routes, leaving both as TD-or-bust dart throws. Everett is the TE40 in fantasy usage through two weeks.
Update: Rookie WR3 Dee Eskridge (concussion) is out. So are starting RT Brandon Shell (ankle) and RB2 Rashaad Penny (calf). Freddie Swain will take Eskridge’s starting spot.
Chris Carson is the RB11 on RB23 fantasy usage. He played on 63% of the Week 2 snaps and should handle 15+ carries with all goal-line looks. The Seahawks’ 2-point favorite spread plays into Carson’s upside RB2 outlook. Travis Homer is around to take on of some the passing-down work — Carson has a 54% route rate — while Rashaad Penny (calf) is out.
4. Ravens (28.75, -7.5) @ DET
Who on the Lions is expected to tackle MFin Lamar Jackson this week?
Update: LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) remains out and DNP all week.
Update: Lions LB Jamie Collins is out while trying to find a trade partner. DE Michael Brockers, OLB Romeo Okwara, and OLB Trey Flowers (DNP Friday) are all questionable with injuries.
Marquise Brown is earning far more targets (29% team share) than expected, leading to a WR6 start in half PPR on WR16 fantasy usage. Brown’s outlook is clean with Detroit trotting out not one but two backup CBs. They were 30th against fantasy WRs in 2020 already. Fire up Brown as an upside WR3 before Rashod Bateman (abdominal) is cleared. … Sammy Watkins is an every-down receiver sitting on WR39 fantasy usage through two weeks. The matchup is as good as it’ll get here if you’re willing to ride the “reptilian solar being” roller coaster. … Mark Andrews is fancy C.J. Uzomah right now. I’m mostly kidding. His 18% target share is lower than expected, but there’s no schematic or talent reasons why that shouldn’t rebound. A two-week sample isn’t enough to knock Andrews out of borderline top-6 TE rankings despite his TE16 fantasy usage. The Lions are dead last in passing EPA defense since the start of 2020.
Ty’Son Williams is by far the most explosive back in this offense. He’s the RB3 in fantasy points over expected as an efficiency darling next to Lamar. Williams’ RB24 fantasy usage is rock solid, as is the matchup, Yes, Latavius Murray has a role as the reliable passing-down back, but this offense needs Williams’ burst. He’s an upside RB2 here with Baltimore projected for 28.75 points (4th).
5. Rams (28.5, -1) vs. TB
For two seasons now, the game plan against the Bucs has been to just pass the damn ball (read: enough already with running it at MFin Vita Vea). So this week, we should expect bombs away from Matthew Stafford and the passing offense. The two primary differences in the 2021 Rams offense are an increased neutral pace (12th to 3rd) and Stafford taking the deeper throw on high-low reads. That leaves him with a mid-range QB1 projection at home. Vegas gives the Rams a 28.5-point implied total (5th) this week.
Update: Bucs EDGE2 Jason Pierre-Paul (hand) is out. They still have depth at edge, but it’s a loss.
More intermediate passes (see this chart) has been a boom to Cooper Kupp and should be for Robert Woods eventually, too. I don’t know of a schematic or talent reason why Kupp would have a 38% target share over Woods’ 23%, so I’m chalking up the difference to NFL variance and small samples. Both Kupp and Woods have elite, elite, elite ceilings in all matchups, particularly this one. The Bucs are missing CB2 Sean Murphy-Bunting right now and gave up big weeks to CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Calvin Ridley already. Buy low on Woods. … Van Jefferson has ran a route on 93% of dropbacks if looking for DFS correlation in Stafford stacks. … Tyler Higbee flopped against the 2nd-hardest TE matchup last week, but the peripheral stats are still much better this year than last. He’s ran a route on 85% of dropbacks in 2021. Big days are coming, and the Bucs were 22nd against fantasy TEs last year.
The Bucs’ №1 rushing EPA and №1 neutral pass rate against defense is where fantasy backs are sent to die. Darrell Henderson is the RB7 on RB9 fantasy usage right now, but his rib injury makes him questionable for Week 3 and gives the Rams more reasons to mix in Sony Michel more moving forward. They traded for him because they’re worried about Hendo’s longevity. The floor is lower than it appears.
Update: Darrell Henderson (ribs) is didn’t practice all week but is listed as questionable. Playing NFL running back with rib problems seems impossible, as is the matchup.
6. Cowboys (27.75, -4) vs. PHI
Dak Prescott looks about 90% healthy, which is definitely good enough in an offense that’s 10th in neutral pace, 7th in neutral pass rate, and 6th in projected points this week. Prescott has at least 20 fantasy points in 3-of-4 starts against Philly, who are suddenly without DE Brandon Graham.
CeeDee Lamb (WR2 fantasy usage) and Amari Cooper (WR7) are high-ceiling WR1s without Michael Gallup. I’m not breaking any news here. Let’s move on. … Cedrick Wilson ran a route on 66% of Week 2 dropbacks as Gallup’s replacement, but he ceded work to Noah Brown (19%) on occasion and held a minuscule 7% target share. Wilson is a 0-floor punt play. … More Tony Pollard means fewer opportunities for the TEs in general. That’s not good for the outlooks of Blake Jarwin (56% routes) and Dalton Schultz (57%). We need Jarwin to start separating from Schultz as he gets further and further removed from his torn ACL.
It’s debate time. Ezekiel Elliott is a better 3-down back than Tony Pollard, which is why the Cowboys are playing Zeke on 78% of the snaps and he’s running the most routes of any RB right now. With that said, Pollard is unquestionably more explosive (he’s lighter!) and should continue getting his manufactured touches as a “weapon” in pony personnel (2 RBs) and on kick returns. The fact that Pollard is getting more of these gadget touches is bad news for Zeke’s top-5 fantasy potential, but there’s still room for a top-10 RB season from Zeke. Let’s see if the Cowboys are more willing to get Zeke going between the tackles and as a screen player when they aren’t on the road against Bucs’ elite run defense without All-Pro RG Zach Martin. I’m ranking Zeke as a low-end RB1 with upside and Pollard (28% snaps) as a flex play in full PPR leagues.
7. Bills (27.5, -9.5) vs. WAS
Josh Allen has missed throws in each of the first two games that he was making last year. That only matters so much with Buffalo 1st in neutral pass rate and 1st in neutral pace. Washington’s №4 passing EPA defense since 2020 makes the home matchup spicier, but Allen’s role is too elite to move out of the top-6. Buffalo is 7th in projected points (27.5) this week.
It isn’t translating to box score production, but Stefon Diggs is the WR4 in fantasy usage and ranks inside the top-12 in air yards, targets, and red zone targets so far. Big days are coming for the WR1. He’ll see some of CB2 Benjamin St-Juste, triggering a “Rookie CB Alert”. … Cole Beasley (WR37 fantasy usage) and Emmanuel Sanders (WR41) are flex options with noticeable splits against man and zone coverage — both were top-7 in yards per route run versus zone coverage in 2020. Washington was 10th in zone coverage rate last year, leaving both with a ceiling to chase despite unlucky starts to the year. … Gabriel Davis is the WR81 in fantasy usage on 49% routes. Don’t let fantasy analysts trick you into thinking 4-WR sets are relevant. … A 57% route rate and TE22 fantasy usage aren’t enough to chase any Dawson Knox points outside of DFS correlation builds.
Devin Singletary started, played on 66% snaps, and handled all passing situations in Week 2 despite Zack Moss’s return. The latter is TD-or-bust fodder. Moss will get goal-line work, but 60% of his Week 2 touches came in garbage time last week. Meanwhile, Singletary boomed with a long score on 11.3 expected half PPR points in Week 2. Neither are more than low-floor RB3s against fantasy’s №2 RB defense.
8. Bucs (27.5, +1) @ LAR
Tom Brady thinks your dual-threat fantasy QB is cute. He’s averaging 304.5 passing yards and 3.1 passing TDs across his last 10 games, and quite frankly, looks as good as ever on tape with a historically stacked group of pass catchers. You have lost your mind if you’re not betting on Brady and the Bucs right now. The matchup is arguably more difficult on paper (Rams are 1st vs. fantasy QBs since 2020) than it is on film given the Rams’ secondary turnover this offseason.
Antonio Brown is COVID-19 positive. This is what ESPN’s Adam Schefter said, “A player that tests positive that is vaccinated can return after two negative tests 24 hours apart, but it will be tough for Brown to play Sunday vs. Rams.” … If Brown is out as expected, Mike Evans is in a fantastic spot as a borderline WR1. Jalen Ramsey has been playing in the slot as the Rams’ “star” on 55% of snaps this year and could end up matching with Chris Godwin. I want all pieces in this game regardless of matchup, however. Evans (WR17 fantasy usage) and Godwin (WR8) inheriting some of Brown’s 12% target and 26% air yards share is good stuff. … Expect Scotty Miller (and to a lesser extent Tyler Johnson) to fill in for Brown as a distant №3 receiver who only plays in 3-WR sets. … Rob Gronkowski is a top-5 real life TE again, and he has TE3 overall fantasy usage on TE7 air yards, TE6 targets, and TE2 red zone looks. No Brown adds a bit to Gronk’s mid-range TE1 projection.
Ronald Jones (see below) and Giovani Bernard (see last 3 years of film) look very bad. That’s why Leonard Fournette is the RB14 in fantasy usage through two weeks, and why I think Fournette will eventually be a consensus RB2/3 in fantasy. The matchup is as tough as it gets going on the road to see 2020’s №2 5 fantasy RB defense, but Fournette has punt flex appeal. … By the way, this has been RoJo’s lone pass-blocking rep of 2021:
9. Browns (27.25, -7.5) vs. CHI
Baker Mayfield is 1st in completion percentage over expected and 7th in EPA per dropback through two weeks. The Browns are deservedly projected to score the 9th-most points (27.25) this week against an overrated Bears defense. Mayfield’s floor and ceiling are connected to Odell Beckham’s health with Jarvis Landry (MCL) out, but he’s expected to return. Mayfield is an upside QB2 despite low neutral pace (29th) and pass rate (24th).
Odell Beckham doesn’t carry an injury designation heading into Week 3 after practicing in full all week. Browns OC Alex Van Pelt said, “Definitely have to be smart with his reps … Can’t expect him to come out and have a huge day first time back, we’ve just got to ease him back into it.” I think he’ll be effective, and I’m not fully buying his decreased role now that Jarvis Landry is out. Beckham has a legit ceiling to chase immediately. The Bears defense isn’t as stout as it was the last couple of seasons. … Donovan Peoples-Jones and Anthony Schwartz are the next in line for targets, but it’s a low-volume role given the Browns’ 7.5-point spread. … David Njoku (TE9 fantasy usage) and Austin Hooper (TE14) have been targeted, but their 52% and 54% route rates this season are that of 0-floor TE2s. Either one could unpredictably spike on relatively low usage. Chicago was 31st against fantasy TEs last year and are missing a starting safety:
Update: Bears starting safety Tashaun Gipson (hamstring) is doubtful, and DT Eddie Goldman (knee) is questionable after not practicing on Friday.
“bUt He DOeSnT cATcH PaSSeS” bros may never learn with cyborg rusher Nick Chubb. He is half PPR’s RB4 per game this year and is the RB5 per game since the 2020 despite splitting time with flex-option Kareem Hunt. Chubb’s elite efficiency is bankable behind PFF’s top-3 run-blocking OL, and he’s 7.5-point home favorites here. He’s averaging 95 rushing yards and 0.78 rushing TDs in career wins. … Hunt is the RB28 on RB33 fantasy usage (43% snaps) so far. That’s similar to his 2020 numbers with a healthy Chubb. If that’s not you, ask your doctor about Get Roman, the digital health clinic for men.
10. Vikings (27.0, +2) vs. SEA
Kirk Cousins is doing Kirk Cousins things in 2021, ranking 12th in EPA per dropback and 15th in completion percentage over expected. That lines up with Minnesota’s №10 implied points (27.0) this week, leaving him with upside QB2 appeal in fantasy circles. He has 249–2–1 and 276–2–1 passing lines in games against Seattle since 2019.
It won’t matter too much, but Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are slightly negatively effected by the Vikings’ increased usage of 3-WR sets — 50% of 2020 passes came with 3+ WRs, that’s 87% this year. This week is not the week to care about that, however. The Seahawks were gashed by Julio Jones last week and were 27th against fantasy WRs in 2020. Jefferson’s 9.5 targets and 118.5 air yards per game sit inside the top-12, so a ceiling game is inevitable. … As always, Adam Thielen is dunking on my beta-boy model, particularly in the red zone. Thielen is the WR4 overall on WR24 fantasy usage thanks to scoring on both of his red zone targets. Upside WR2 status is here to say despite the regression nerds. … Slot man K.J. Osborn’s 18% target share feels very unsustainable, but he’s a worthy bench hold in 14-team leagues because he’s running a route on 81% of dropbacks. … Athletic inline TE Tyler Conklin has a 10% target share on TE28 fantasy usage through two weeks. With the wobbly LT spot right now, he’s asked to pass protect too often to be viewed as anything more than a TD-or-bust TE2 dart throw.
When asked about Dalvin Cook’s workload given his nagging injuries, coach Mike Zimmer said, “If he dies, he dies. We need him to win us games.” Wild stuff (and a lie). But it’s a unique situation to monitor. Cook has ankle and stinger ailments right now, in addition to an injury history that consists of knee and shoulder surgeries. He’s an upside RB1 when healthy. Make sure you have Alexander Mattison (my favorite best ball pick of 2021) exposure just in case Cook’s health diminishes. … As for the matchup, Derrick Henry ran for a billion yards against the Seahawks last week.
Update: Dalvin Cook (ankle) didn’t practice all week but is questionable. I think he’s a legit game-time decision, which sucks because it’s a 4EST kickoff. Alexander Mattison would be a top-12 RB if starting.
11. Titans (26.75, -5) vs. IND
The Titans’ dip in play action is largely overstated. They’re using it 6% less in neutral situations and still use it at above-average rates. And it’s a two-game sample. Ryan Tannehill needs to be highly efficient to sustain low-end QB1 value given their dip in neutral pace (3rd to 26th — this is the actual concern!), but his weapons and this home matchup sans-CB1 Xavier Rhodes leave that path open. Tennessee is projected for 26.75 points (11th).
A.J. Brown has been uncharacteristically inefficient featuring multiple drops so far. Maybe that’s his knees hurting. Maybe that’s a small sample. His WR16 fantasy usage suggests it’s not time to panic, though his 23% target share needs to creep back up for Brown to return to WR1 status. Brown lit up the Colts for 4–98–1 the last time they played, and no Rhodes has sent Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp to the moon. They both have the part-time slot role that Brown has. … Julio Jones looked like Julio Jones in Week 2, and he would’ve had a much bigger day if his shoe size was slightly smaller in the end zone. Jones’ 19% target share is smaller than expected, but I’m expecting that to climb with Tennessee using 3-WR sets much higher because of negative scripts to open the year. Jones is a WR2 with upside. … Nobody else in the pass-catching corps is startable with Anthony Firkser (knee) ruled out after three-straight DNPs.
Derrick Henry is not normal. In three games against the Colts since Tannehill has showed up, Henry has rushing yard totals of 178, 103, and 148 with four combined TDs. The Titans are 5-point home favorites against Jacob Eason.
12. Broncos (26.5, -11.5) vs. NYJ
Small sample alert, but Teddy Bridgewater is the QB3 overall in EPA per dropback and the QB2 in completion percentage over expected. Yes, some of that is opponent induced, but the Broncos are using play action at the 2nd-highest rate in neutral situations and the Jets are on deck next. Bridgewater is a legitimate QB2 with Denver projected for 26.5 points (12th).
Courtland Sutton made a couple of plays downfield and a diving catch by his shoelaces last week, and that’s enough for me to believe his ACL concerns are behind him. Sutton is the NFL leader in air yards through two weeks and dominated targets (35%) in Week 2 without Jerry Jeudy. If you can’t name a Jets starting CB (I don’t blame you), then you should view Sutton as a WR2/3 with upside. … Tim Patrick is playing over K.J. Hamler in 2-WR sets, and the Broncos are using 2-TE sets at above-average rates. That’s bad news for slot-only Hamler, though he has the vertical role and speed to have random spiked weeks as a punt play. Patrick is arguably the better bet for WR5 production. He ran a route on 83% of Week 2 dropbacks and is the WR62 in fantasy usage through two weeks. Hamler is the WR75. … Noah Fant is the TE5 on TE4 fantasy usage. He has the size/speed profile of a top-5 receiving tight end, and he quietly has a healthy 20% target share through two weeks. He’s in the top-6 fantasy conversation without Jeudy. New York was dead last against the position in 2020.
Melvin Gordon (RB31 fantasy usage) and Javonte Williams (RB34) are splitting time evenly, with Gordon playing on 55% of snaps. Both have played well, but Gordon deserves to be ranked ahead of the rookie for now. 41% of Williams’ touches have came in garbage time so far. It’ll be hard to rely on either of them as RB2s with Denver ranking 28th in neutral pace and 22nd in team RB fantasy usage. I don’t need to tell you that the matchup is good.
13. 49ers (26.25, -3.5) vs. GB
A league-leading 20% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s dropbacks have been screens, but the 49ers passing offense has been productive in general (5th in EPA per dropback) against a cupcake opening schedule. Garoppolo will have to make more intermediate and downfield throws against a tougher challenge this week, but Trey Lance doesn’t appear to be a major threat in the short term after news leaked that he was running scout team last week. The 49ers’ №24 neutral pace and №19 neutral pass rate work against Garoppolo’s ceiling. He’s a boom-bust QB2 while holding off Lance for now.
Deebo Samuel is the WR3 overall on WR12 fantasy usage, 36% targets, and 52% air yards with Brandon Aiyuk farting around. Samuel’s role is secure, and he should avoid Jaire Alexander on enough snaps to not worry about the individual matchup. Samuel is an upside WR2/3 for as long as Aiyuk is a part-time player (59% snaps in Week 2). I’m guessing Aiyuk returns to normal snaps in a big game this weekend, but he’s still not a reliable flex option until he proves it again. There is upside if you’re desperate though. … George Kittle is the TE25 in fantasy usage, the TE23 in routes, and is only running a route on 75% of Niners’ dropbacks through two weeks. Kittle’s blocking-ability is working against his fantasy ceiling right now, but this projected close matchup is the time to unleash him. I’ll have him as my TE4. It’ll be time to panic if his usage doesn’t pick up here.
Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) is doubtful and JaMycal Hasty is out. It’s now or never for Trey Sermon this week. Beat reporters are optimistic that Sermon will start and handle a full role this week, and the timing is good for us Sermon supporters. The Packers run-defense looks confused under a new DC right now and have historically played with lighter boxes leading to a №27 fantasy RB defense last year. Sermon is an upside RB2 assuming Mitchell is ruled out. Trenton Cannon, Jacques Patrick, and Kerryon Johnson were all just brought in. My Trey Sermon pre-draft scouting report is here.
14. Giants (25.75, -3) vs. ATL
Daniel Jones is rolling with improved skill talent around him. He’s the QB13 in EPA per dropback so far on slightly improved accuracy, and the matchup here is ideal. The Falcons were last against fantasy QBs in 2020 and have been shredded by Jalen Hurts (3 TDs) and Tom Brady (5 TDs) already. Jones’ unhealthy OL is the primary concern for Jones’ QB2 projection. The Giants are 14th in projected points (25.75) this week. I was legitimately upset when I lost a waiver claim for Jones as a streamer this week.
Sterling Shepard is leading the Giants in fantasy usage (WR9) and targets (9.5 per game on a 28% share), and more importantly, he’s not leading in sideline screaming through two weeks. Shepard has my attention as a WR3 this week, as Atlanta was last against fantasy WRs in 2020. … Kenny Golladay is dead last in fantasy points over expected, scoring 4.7 fewer fantasy points than my model thinks he should score based on his usage. Read that two ways: 1) he’s bad, or 2) he’s a bounceback candidate. It’s likely a combination, but I’m viewing Golladay as a boom-bust flex play with the team environment looking as good as it’ll get. … Darius Slayton has 97.5 air yards per game as the Giants’ primary deep threat. He’s a 0-floor dart throw for now with Kadarius Toney barely playing, but he needs a long TD to pay off because targets in general are flowing elsewhere. … Amazing. Kyle Rudolph is the TE38 on TE15 fantasy usage right now.
Update: Falcons CB1 A.J. Terrell (concussion) has been ruled out. He was expected to see Kenny Golladay this week. Atlanta has one of the worst projected starting cornerback groups of Week 3.
Update: Kenny Golladay (hip) is questionable after limited practices all week. Giants WR coach Tyke Tolbert said that “One of the things I can help him with is probably to lessen his snaps a little bit.” He’s the definition of a boom-bust flex play right now. The matchup is great. The injury and production thus far have been worrisome.
Update: Evan Engram (calf) was limited all week and could make his 2021 debut. It’s possible that he’s eased back in initially, especially with Kyle Rudolph available. He’s a 0-floor TE2 if active.
Saquon Barkley isn’t 100%, but his 84% snap rate on short rest last Thursday is encouraging that Barkley and the Giants feel good about his health moving forward. The Falcons’ run defense is quietly strong, but Barkley has the every-down role of a top-12 RB, especially with the Giants’ ascending implied point total. I’d buy low on Barkley despite the massive OL concerns.
15. Panthers (25.5, -7.5) @ HOU
Sam Darnold is 14th in EPA per dropback while surrounded by an elite coaching and receiving supporting cast. A short-week road matchup is never easy, but Vegas’ 25.5-point projection puts the Panthers at №15 overall this week. Darnold should pick apart the Texans’ №28 passing EPA defense as a fantasy QB2 with some upside. He’s getting some passing production from CMC checkdowns, too.
D.J. Moore has a new role. His aDOT (average depth of target) has dropped from 13.2 to 9.4 this year, largely because he’s winning underneath at a higher rate than in 2020. His route running looks more polished, and he’s being rewarded with more screens, slants, and digs. That leaves him with a path to top-15 WR production, especially against a secondary that traded their CB1 a couple of weeks ago. Underneath production can be expected against DC Lovie Smith’s league-leading Cover 2 zone defense. … Robby Anderson is the opposite. After a career-low 9.6 aDOT, Anderson is sitting at 21.0 right now. Small sample size warning of course, but he’s legitimately running deeper routes in general, which mirrors his 2019 usage with Sam Darnold. I’m expecting a more boom-bust season from Anderson (WR25 in air yards) as a WR3/flex. He’s still very good, so don’t panic too much. … Terrace Marshall is a distant №3 as a slot-only player. The rookie has WR67 fantasy usage. He’s good enough to have random spiked weeks, however. … Dan Arnold is the TE28 on TE24 fantasy usage right now.
Christian McCaffrey is very good. I think you should start him.
16. Raiders (24.75, -4) vs. MIA
The Raiders offense without Josh Jacobs is different (read: better). Vegas is 2nd in neutral pass rate, they’re using more shotgun, and Derek Carr is playing out of his mind with more intermediate passing (see this chart). Carr is a top-10 NFL passes (argue against yourself idc), and the Raiders are rightfully projected for 24.75 points this week at home (17th). The new pass-heavier Raiders give Carr legitimate QB2 appeal in fantasy. That’s new.
Henry Ruggs had a career-high 7 targets last week, partially because he looks more polished but mostly because the Raiders are manufacturing some touches for him underneath. His speed will always give him ceiling potential downfield, but Ruggs’ WR3 potential is only obtainable if he’s given screens, slants, and shallow drags, too. His toughest test to date comes against the man-heavy Dolphins’ corners. If he wins here, I’m bullish on his 2021 outlook. … Bryan Edwards has a 9% target share in the Raiders’ toughest role at X receiver. The third-rounder shouldn’t be trusted against the №3 passing EPA defense since 2020 with slot man Hunter Renfrow out-pacing him in fantasy usage (WR31 vs. WR71). Renfrow is a desperate full PPR WR5, but game script is working against him as 4–point home favorites. … Darren Waller is averaging 19.0 expected half PPR points through two weeks (TE1 overall), and there’s nothing about the matchup to knock him out of the Travis Kelce conversation. He has plenty of TD equity with Jacobs likely out.
Josh Jacobs (turf toe) isn’t in a good spot. I’ll check back in later. It was Kenyan Drake on passing downs and Peyton Barber running into brick walls up the gut last week.
17. Chargers (24.5, +6.5) @ KC
The Chargers are 5th in neutral pace and 4th in neutral pass rate under a new forward-thinking staff, and the Chiefs offense will obviously encourage even more aggressive play-calling for Justin Herbert. Kansas City quietly sucks on defense right now with new starters sprinkled throughout the back-seven. Los Angeles’ 24.5-point projection feels light to me. Herbert, who had 311–1–1 & 302–3–0 passing lines with a rushing TD in his starts against the Chiefs last year, is a mid-range QB1 like usual.
Update: Chiefs “star” DE Frank Clark (hamstring) is doubtful. He hasn’t done much for them in two years though. Actual star DE Chris Jones (wrist) should play through his injury.
Keenan Allen’s track record with Herbert has him locked into WR1 rankings. He’s averaging over 80 yards and 12 targets per game, and the Chiefs’ CB depth chart appears worse in 2021 than it was last year. Allen has 96, 82, 71, and 108 yards against the Chiefs when healthy since 2018. … Mike Williams is a massive early-season winner, and it feels somewhat sustainable. Williams’ X role isn’t just as a deep threat like in years past. His aDOT has dropped by 6 or so yards (9.5 in 2021) because of an increase in slants, digs, and screens. Just look at the chart below. A sweet game environment plus his WR1 overall fantasy usage through two weeks get him onto the WR1/2 border. … Jalen Guyton and Josh Palmer are distant №3 receivers and are splitting time. … Jared Cook has failed on it, but he has TE6 overall fantasy usage to start the year while running a route on 65% of dropbacks. He’s one of the best upside TE2 plays on the board for now, and is actually the biggest positive regression candidate at the position per my model.
Update: Starting outside CB Charvarius Ward (quad) didn’t practice on Friday and is suddenly questionable.
Austin Ekeler was my Benjamin of the Week (player to reach 100+ yards) on The Underdog Football Show. His workload rebounded last week after being limited by a hamstring injury in the opener, seeing 9 targets in addition to some carries, most notably a few coming inside the 5-yard line. He has a similar role to Alvin Kamara quietly, and this is the matchup to go off. The Chiefs are 31st in rushing EPA defense since 2020, and their best LB is on injured reserve. Watch this clip of the Chiefs’ LBs, EDGEs, and Ss against the run last week.
18. Steelers (23.75, -3.5) vs. CIN
Ben Roethlisberger looked cooked last week, and he might be forced into more downfield passing this week without check-down lover Diontae Johnson. Roethlisberger’s matchup is pristine at home as 3.5-point favorites against a team he’s always controlled, but his tape is enough to keep him out of top-15 consideration. Pittsburgh is 18th in projected points this week.
No Diontae Johnson (knee) opens up 31% targets and 31% air yards shares for Chase Claypool (19% targets), JuJu Smith-Schuster (21%), and James Washington. Claypool is the best bet for a ceiling game given his mouthwatering talent, but Smith-Schuster’s WR3 projection is solidified with more underneath targets opening up. Claypool (WR38 fantasy usage) and Smith-Schuster (WR50) are must plays against the Bengals’ №24 passing EPA defense since 2020. … More 12-personnel could come into play sans-D.J. but it’s not enough to chase these rotating TEs. Eric Ebron (37) has the slight edge to Pat Freiermuth (35) in routes so far. The rookie just looks much quicker.
Update: Bengals CB1 Trae Waynes (hamstring) remains out. I’m expecting a big week from Chase Claypool on the perimeter. Gitty up.
Najee Harris’ 97% snap rate is unheard of in 2021, leaving him with an automatic top-12 RB workload every week. Harris gets RB1 ranking treatment as 3.5-point home favorites, especially if Johnson’s absence opens up more checkdowns to the big fella. Cincy was 23rd against the position last year.
19. Eagles (23.75, +4) @ DAL
The Eagles’ №7 neutral pace, №12 neutral pass rate, and №19 implied point total are good enough for Jalen Hurts to backdoor into QB1 fantasy production given his rushing averages (69 yards, 0.7 TDs). The Cowboys’ №31 adjusted sack rate defense is without EDGE1 Demarcus Lawrence, forcing difference-making rookie near the line of scrimmage instead of at off-ball linebacker. Hurts in catch-up mode should increase his rushing odds. The tape suggests Hurts is still struggling with getting the ball out in time in the pocket.
Update: Eagles LT Jordan Mailata (knee) is out. Ex-first-rounder Andre Dilliard will start in his place. That’s a noticeable downgrade.
DeVonta Smith couldn’t corral a couple of downfield 50/50 targets last week, but his 48% air yards and 26% target shares are encouraging through two weeks. His releases are nasty, and he’s an experienced defense reader, particularly against zone coverages. Smitty gets impressive ex-Bama CB1 Trevon Diggs in most Cover 1 and Cover 3 snaps. I like his odds of 7–10 targets in catch-up mode. … Jalen Reagor (19% targets) and Quez Watkins (47% routes) aren’t volume hogs, leaving them with TD-or-bust labels. Reagor still looks sloppy on tape, but the Cowboys’ №29 fantasy WR defense leaves him outs to WR5 production. He’s the WR61 in fantasy usage so far. Watkins has done little outside of his 91-yard catch near the sideline. … Dallas Goedert is 27th in total routes among TEs and is only out in the route on 59% of dropbacks. Zach Ertz (57%) routes is involved as a catch-and-fall slot player. It’s not a fantasy-ceiling environment for either pass-catcher with Smitty projected to lead the team in targets.
Miles Sanders is the RB25 in fantasy usage through two weeks despite playing with a lead in the opener and playing things close last week. Sanders has lost two-minute drill work to rookie Kenneth Gainwell already, and Hurts’ red-zone production works against Sanders’ rushing equity. He’s the definition of a dead zone RB2/3 right now. The Cowboys’ №25 rushing EPA defense is a win here, however.
20. Falcons (22.75, +3) @ NYG
The great @FourVerts aka Charles McDonald killed me when he described Matt Ryan’s arm as “pulled pork” this week. It’s true. He’s lacking arm strength right now, and the Falcons’ offense feels gadgety already. Ryan’s 3.4 aDOT in clean pockets (removing RZ passes) is the lowest in the NFL right now, and he’s playing under pressure often, too. Ryan is holding onto dear life as a QB2 right now with Atlanta projected for the 20th most points.
Calvin Ridley can still get there despite the passing struggles because of a lack of target competition. He’s the WR14 in fantasy usage on an elite 54% air yards shares, and Russell Gage has been removed from the equation this week. New York’s defense played well in 2020 but has had lapses in 2021. It’s too early to panic on Ridley as a top-8 fantasy WR1. … Former UDFA Olamide Zaccheus (5'8/193) is the next man up. His downfield skill set works against Ryan’s apparent limitations, but Zaccheus is a legit speedster with spiked-play potential in the Falcons’ base 2-TE sets. … Kyle Pitts flashed on a slant route that required a back-shoulder catch and elite burst to pick up a first down (video). He’s left a few plays out there, particularly near the sideline, but he’s the TE2 in routes, the TE4 in targets, the TE5 in air yards, and the TE7 in fantasy usage through two weeks. A massive week is coming and the volume floor is already established.
I’m brave enough to say it. Mike Davis is a buy low. He’s the RB10 in fantasy usage, playing 69% snaps, running a route on 64% dropbacks, and most importantly, is an actual running back. 15-of-21 Cordarrelle Patterson receptions dating back to last year came outside of the backfield, and 14-of-27 CPatt routes this year are in the slot or out wide, too. Yes, he’s getting some schemed touches, but he lacks the vision and timing to run between the tackles. Watch the tape below. Davis, meanwhile, can operate the Arthur Smith’s outside-zone-to-play-action system, has financial commitment, and has proven yet again that he’s a plus pass-catcher (7-of-7 targets last week). The Falcons won’t be playing the run-dominant Bucs all year, so 15+ touches are projected for the RB2 this week. Patterson is a gadget player who luckily struck gold last week. I’ll be concerned for Davis’ workload when it’s Wayne Gallman or Qadree Ollisson stealing valuable snaps.
21. Packers (22.75, +3.5) @ SF
When was the last week an Aaron Rodgers offense was projected for the 21st most points of the week? Odd, but the Packers have played solid offense in 2-of-8 quarters so far and are playing on the road here without their starting LT David Bakhtiari and fill-in LT Elgton Jenkins. Hello, Nick Bosa. Rodgers will have to overcome a declining OL and overall play volume to be a QB1 this week. The Packers (27th) and 49ers (24th) are slow in neutral pace.
The 49ers are also banged up, however. Davante Adams avoids CB1 Jason Verrett (IR) and possibly CB2 Emmanuel Moseley (questionable), while the front-seven hopes to get DE2 Arik Armstead (adductor) and DT1 Javon Kinlaw (knee) ready to play through questionable tags. I have no reasons to believe Adams’ 23% target and 17% air yards shares will hold up. Time to ignore the damn spreadsheets and list Adams as a top-5 WR1. He had a 10-173-1 and 9-138–0 receiving lines against SF last year. … Marquez Valdes-Scantling is our regression candidate king right now. MVS is the WR89 on WR45 fantasy usage, and he was an above-average efficiency player last year in this exact same offense. A 50-yard touchdown is coming if you can spot it coming. He’s eternally a boom-bust WR5 on a 73% route rate. … Allen Lazard (66% routes) is holding off Randall Cobb (26%) and Amari Rodgers (12%) in the slot, but it’s not a highly-targeted position in general for the Packers. … Robert Tonyan will break my regression models as a seam stretcher attached to Rodgers. He’s the TE11 on TE20 fantasy usage through two weeks thanks to a score.
My blurb last week: “Aaron Jones is averaging 14.6 PPR points in 17 games with Davante Adams since 2020. There is a lot of competition for snaps (A.J. Dillon) and targets on this team, so Jones needs to be a highly-efficient player to live up to Round 1 expectations. He’ll be on the RB1/2 border as massive 11-point home favorites against the №31 fantasy RB defense. It’s officially time to panic if he doesn’t go to the moon here. … This game will be a great indicator if Dillon has any RB3 appeal this season, or if he’s purely a handcuff.” … Then Jones went for 4 TDs and Dillon played 29% of Week 2 snaps. We have our answers! Jones is an RB1. Dillon is purely a handcuff, and one that could be in a two-back rotation with Kylin Hill if Jones were to miss time. Sell.
22. Patriots (22.5, -3) vs. NO
Mac Jones has a 5.2 aDOT in clean pockets (removing RZ attempts). He’s taking the check down on almost every read while avoiding mistakes. That works with leads. That certainly limits his fantasy ceiling, as well as the Patriots’ as a whole. Jones’ accuracy and the coaching staff’s willingness to give him heavy responsibilities are bullish, however. A home matchup against the ailing Saints, hopefully with RT Trent Brown (questionable) active, is a nice spot for Jones to pull the trigger more often as a fantasy QB2/3.
The Saints will have CB1 Marshon Lattimore back. He’ll mostly face deep threat Nelson Agholor (WR63 fantasy usage) on the perimeter, while slot man Jakobi Meyers (WR44 fantasy usage) is the check-down option and chain-mover in general. The latter is the best bet to lead New England in receptions, but his 57.0 air yards per game leave him with a relatively low ceiling as a flex play in full PPR. … Jonnu Smith (43 routes) and Hunter Henry (62 routes) are mostly cancelling each other out in totally unique roles. Smith, the TE10 in fantasy usage, has been schemed touches on screens and in the backfield, but he’s not a full-time player and won’t have the air yards of must-play TE1s this year. Henry, the TE23 in fantasy usage, is the typical Y (inline) tight end as the hand-in-the-dirt seam stretcher and possible red zone threat. Strong slot CB/SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is expected to play and cover each of these pass-catchers at times.
Damien Harris is half PPR RB11 in fantasy usage and the RB6 in carries through two weeks. Harris needs goal-line touches (1.5 per game, RB5) and positive game scripts (3-point home favorites) to be a quality RB2 fantasy asset, and it appears that he’ll have both in Week 3. … James White is 4th in RB targets and is the RB28 in fantasy usage as a legit role player with juice again. Jones and White mesh well, and the Patriots’ RB-heavy offense has enough room for White to have RB3/flex weeks in full PPR. Given New Orleans’ suspensions/injuries and offseason turnover, I’m mostly ignoring their №1 fantasy RB defense here.
23. Jaguars (22.25, +7.5) vs. ARI
Trevor Lawrence is dead last in EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected (-15%). He’s making insane throws with great arm strength, but he’s been inaccurate and the offense is completely out of sorts right now, largely because he’s not checking the ball down at all. For Week 3, Lawrence projects well in terms of volume (4th in neutral pace). The rest of it is a toss-up. I’m willing to bet on Lawrence’s ability and this game environment as a QB2 given the Jaguars’ №23 implied point total (22.25).
Marvin Jones is half PPR’s WR15 on WR6 fantasy usage. He’s the only experienced part of this offense, and he has the downfield profile of a spiked-week player (WR3 in air yards). Jones arguably is the most-talented Jaguars skill player, too, giving me confidence in his boom-bust WR3 profile. The Cardinals are trotting out one of the worst starting CB duos right now. … D.J. Chark is in an eerily similar spot to Jones but without the 2.0 end zone targets per game so far. Chark’s WR5 overall air yards ranking suggests he’s in the WR3/flex conversation even as Urban Meyer contemplates getting back onto the FOX Sports set with Matt Leinert and Reggie Bush. … Laviska Shenault was the second NFL receiver to have negative yards on at least seven targets. He doesn’t have the speed profile that Meyer wishes for his slot/gadget role, and it’s extremely hard for a low-aDOT (4.1) slot-only receiver to be fantasy viable. Shenault is a WR4/5 with Lawrence’s eyes wandering downfield.
Update: Slot CB CB Byron Murphy (ankle) and CB2 Marco Wilson (ankle) are both questionable after going DNP, DNP/limited, limited in practice this week. Murphy is one of their best players, and their two outside corners should be viewed as one of the worst starting duos in the NFC.
James Robinson’s 73% snaps & 63% routes from Week 2 are the lone positives. It’s possible the Jaguars’ attempt to balance things with more rushes here, but Carlos Hyde will mix in between the tackles and Robinson isn’t getting the check-downs of the Gardner Minshew 2020 offense. Robinson is the RB37 in fantasy usage right now as a boom-bust RB3.
24. Colts (21.75, +5) @ TEN
Carson Wentz is a game-time decision after a limited practice on Friday. The snail-paced Colts (32nd) aren’t a breeding ground for fantasy production, particularly when the quarterback is playing on dual sprained ankles. Indianapolis is also without RT Branden Smith and LT Eric Fisher (achilles) didn’t look right coming back early.
Michael Pittman is the only pass-catcher worth considering. He dominated targets last week (33%) mostly against zone coverage, but has the classic X size/speed profile to be an asset against man coverage, too. Pittman is the WR19 in fantasy usage with top-36 marks in air yards, targets, and red zone targets through two weeks. Tennessee was 30th against fantasy WRs last year, leaving Pittman in the upside WR3 mix. Hopefully the QB play can hold up. … Zach Pascal (WR49) fantasy usage is a gritty 2-WR set starter who has lucked out in the TD department (3) through two weeks. It’s best to fade recent box scores with slot-man Parris Campbell back in the lineup. … Jack Doyle is the TE8 in fantasy usage on 62% routes & a 16% target share, but he’s also Jack Doyle and passing volume is of concern with both teams bottom-6 in neutral pace right now.
Update: Titans first-round CB Caleb Farley (shoulder) is out. LB Bud Dupree (knee) hasn’t practiced yet either. Tennessee’s defense is wack.
Jonathan Taylor is the biggest positive regression candidate among RBs per my model. He’s been stuffed at the goal-line numerous times and has yet to rip off the big plays of late-2020. The OL is a legitimate concern right now, but volume wins out typically, especially with JT talent attached. Taylor is the RB3 overall in fantasy usage despite ceding passing downs to Nyheim Hines. The Colts’ №24 point total makes Hines a risky RB3 play here.
25. Lions (21.25, +7.5) vs. BAL
Jared Goff is 28th in EPA per dropback, but he’s been fantasy-relevant thanks to league-leading 93 pass attempts. That pace is impossible to keep up against the slow-paced Ravens, who could play ball control in the second half here. The good news for Goff’s QB2/3 outlook is the Ravens’ injury report. NT Brandon Williams, DL Justin Madubuike, OLB Justin Houston and OLB Jaylon Ferguson are all on the COVID-19 list.
Quintez Cephus is the Lions’ №1 receiver. He’s the WR34 on WR25 fantasy usage, reaching 11.4 and 10.3 expected half PPR points to open the year. His downfield role is secure, but he’ll need to make plays against CB1 Marlon Humphrey. The profile is one of a boom-bust flex play if you can stomach the Lions’ label. … Third-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (71% Week 2 routes) and Kalif Raymond (64%) are next in line, but Trinity Benson (44%) is also mixing in. … The true №1 option is T.J. Hockenson and his 24% target and air yards shares. Thanks to garbage time, Hockenson is the TE2 overall in fantasy usage and the TE3 in my personal rankings.
The Ravens’ front-seven COVID problems are a boost to D’Andre Swift’s (RB12 fantasy usage) and Jamaal Williams’ (RB20) outlooks. It’s odd that Williams remains the “starter”, but he’s also the one playing a higher percentage of his snaps in garbage time (44%, RB5) compared to Swift’s 23%. This two-back committee is fantasy-relevant because of the poor WR depth. Swift is an upside RB2 with a trenches advantage. Williams can be flexed.
26. Dolphins (20.75, +4) @ LV
Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have the quick release to operate in the Dolphins’ shotgun RPO-based offense, and he’ll continue to be a sitting duck behind PFF’s worst-graded offensive line. I have little hope here. Maybe co-coordinators was a bad idea.
Will Fuller is too talented to not be ranked as the Dolphins’ top receiver, but his checkered offseason practice time and this pass-game environment are working against his WR3/flex outlook. It’s unclear if Brissett has enough juice to make any of the Dolphins’ receivers startable with all deserving of targets. DeVante Parker (WR40 fantasy usage) and Jaylen Waddle (WR46) were unable to separate through two weeks. The only positives here is the Raiders’ №27 passing EPA and №20 fantasy WR defense. … Mike Gesicki was the TE18 in fantasy usage on 65% routes before Fuller’s return. I’d rather roll the dice with Jared Cook or Jonnu Smith.
The Dolphins’ RBs are 24th in fantasy usage, and it’s a three-back committee that projects for below-average efficiency thanks to Miami’s OL. Myles Gaskin (RB35 fantasy usage) doesn’t have the size to hold up beyond his 58% snap rate, and Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed are role players, too. It’s best to not start anyone here, though Gaskin could backdoor into flex production against the Raiders’ №28 rushing EPA and №29 fantasy RB defense.
27. Bengals (20.25, +3.5) @ PIT
The Bengals are a hot mess. They’re using empty sets despite having a bottom-5 offensinve line and a quarterback that’s extremely immobile in the pockets. That combined with Joe Burrow’s bottom-10 arm strength leaves the Bengals in low-aDOT hell, and the Bengals are hiding the pass game with the №30 neutral pass rate, a steep decline from last year. Joe Burrow is a fringe QB2/3 with Cincinnati projected for the 27th-most points of the week.
Update: Bengals starting RG G Xavier Su’a-Filo (knee) is doubtful. His absence will push iffy rookie second-rounder Jackson Carmen into the starting lineup.
Update: Steelers elite EDGE1 T.J. Watt (groin) is out, as are EDGE3 Alex Highsmith (groin) and depth DT Carlos Davis (knee). The Steelers defense needs a big game from Melvin Ingram.
For the reasons listed above, there is no way this offense can support two top-30 receivers at the moment. Luckily for Ja’Marr Chase (WR60 fantasy usage) and Tyler Boyd (WR64), it looks like Tee Higgins (shoulder) will sit after being listed as doubtful. Chase is the best bet given his higher aDOT and dominant overall prospect profile, but he’s been lucky with 50- and 42-yard scores on relatively random plays and will get CB1 Joe Haden as a WR3. … Boyd’s individual matchup isn’t much easier if elite safety Minkah Fitzpatrick gets involved over the middle. Still, it’s hard to sit Boyd as a full PPR flex with Higgins’ gifting 26% targets and 31% air yards back to the offense. … Ian Hartitz will be tweeting about Auden Tate I’m sure.
Joe Mixon is an ancillary winner of Higgins’ absence, as he was a legit threat in the red zone and on passing downs. Mixon’s RB8 fantasy usage is bolstered by the Bengals’ new-look neutral pass rate and an increased route rate (60%). If the Bengals get nervous about their empty set offense holding up against last year’s league-leading pass rush, we could see even more work for the must-play RB1. He’s the RB3 overall in third/fourth down touches per game.
28. Bears (19.75, +7.5) @ CLE
Justin Fields was my pre-draft QB2. I’m bullish on him long-term because of his arm talent and rare athletic traits. This, however, will be a very tough contest. The Bears’ OL has been a mess, the offense as a whole is 25th in neutral pace, and the Browns’ front-seven is no joke at home. Fields’ passing stats are unlikely to be the reason why he’s a top-15 fantasy QB option. It’s his scrambling ability. He had 11 carries to 15 pass attempts as a relief pitcher the past two weeks. A 10-attempt game is expected as 7.5-point dogs. I’ll draw the line to start Fields around Ryan Tannehill. Give me Justin Herbert types over Fields here.
Allen Robinson’s uncharacteristic low-aDOT can be attributed to Andy Dalton and a tough opening slate of matchups. Fields’ downfield passing is really strong, and Robinson should had WR6 overall fantasy usage last year. Getting CB1 Denzel Ward in individual coverage won’t make this easy, but Robinson is a WR2 bounce back candidate after dropping a would-be score in Week 2. … Darnell Mooney has underperformed his WR35 fantasy usage to date. He’s a tough start given the Bears’ 19.75-point projection (29th), but Mooney’s ability to separate downfield and on broken plays are theoretical matches with Fields’ play-style. … Cole Kmet has earned just 10% targets on 67% routes as a classic inline tight end. That has translated to TE31 fantasy usage so far, leaving him as a bench hold in most formats. The Browns’ №29 ranking against fantasy TEs from last year is unlikely to repeat this year given the offseason additions including second-round LB/SS Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
David Montgomery is losing two-minute drill snaps to Damien Williams this year, but he looks much better on tape and still has pulled off RB15 fantasy usage through two weeks because of Matt Nagy’s commitment to a balanced offensive approach (21st in neutral pass rate). The Bears are 31st in PFF’s run-blocking grade. Montgomery is doing work just to be an upside RB2.
29. Saints (19.5, +3) @ NE
Losing C Erik McCoy (calf) to injury made a big difference in setting up the Saints’ protections last week. Jameis Winston was a hot mess, and McCoy has already been ruled out. Going up to Bill Belichick land is not what the doctor ordered, which explains the Saints’ lowly implied total (19.5 points).
With the Patriots’ defense looking responsive after an offseason full of additions, it’s hard to find a single pass-catcher worth starting in New Orleans. They’re 31st in WR fantasy usage because Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harris can’t win in isolation, and the two tight ends are splitting time — Juwan Johnson (46% routes), Adam Trautman (52% routes). They are the two best bets for desperation.
Promo Code Alvin Kamara is in a very tough spot. The volume will be there, but it’s hard for him to get going with the Saints unable to threaten downfield. Kamara will be Belichick’s defensive focal point. That’s not enough to drop him outside of top-10 RB rankings. Kamara is the RB6 in usage through two chaotic blowout weeks.
30. Texans (18.0, +7.5) vs. CAR
My Davis Mills scouting report was, “In-pocket five-star traits, but inexperienced with shaky mechanics stemming from an ACL injury. My Model = 47th percentile.” I don’t think he’s any good, and he’s catching an underrated, young Panthers defense that’s taking leaps in year two. This could get ugly. Carolina is 1st in adjusted sack rate so far thanks to elite speed rusher Brian Burns and his nasty spin move.
Brandin Cooks is too good and his WR10 overall usage (WR2 in air yards) is too big for him to be on many fantasy benches. Cooks is the lone true NFL starter in this entire skill group, particularly with third-round rookie Nico Collins (shoulder) out. Cooks will get some of Jaycee Horn, setting off a “Rookie CB Alert”. I’m viewing Cooks as a boom-bust WR2/3 with Mills. … The new №2 receiver is veteran captain Chris Conley, who played on 31-of-34 dropbacks last week following Collins’ departure. … Andre Roberts will start in the slot with Danny Amendola (hamstring) ruled out. … Pharaoh Brown (12 routes) and Jordan Akins (19) are splitting snaps, similar to the Texans’ TE usage in 2020. They are both outside of the top-28 in fantasy usage right now.
Mark Ingram is the best bet on early downs, but the Texans are 7.5-point dogs and the OL is horrendous at run-blocking, which partially explains Ingram’s RB48 ranking out of 49 qualifiers in fantasy points over expected. David Johnson is just as good of a play after running a route on 17-of-34 Week 2 dropbacks. Neither are top-30 RBs with Phillip Lindsay and Rex Burkhead still rotating in on occasion.
31. Football Team (18.0, +9.5) @ BUF
The drop-off from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Taylor Heinicke didn’t seem as wide as I thought it’d be in Week 2. His out of pocket magic keeps him in the superflex mix, but an 18.0-point total and a road matchup against an underrated Bills defense isn’t setting him up for success.
Terry McLaurin is a total baller. Even with bad quarterback play, he’s posted WR2 numbers since the start of 2020. Impressive. McLaurin gets a very tough matchup here with CB1 Tre’Davious White now getting help from a bolstered defensive line rotation. They’re 3rd in adjusted sack rate in 2021 suddenly. … Dyami Brown is a full-time player on the perimeter and has WR58 fantasy usage through two weeks. He’s done little with it and shouldn’t be started outside of small-slate DFS contests given the matchup. The third-round rookie needs to make a big play before Curtis Samuel (groin) returns. … Adam Humphries is in the slot and is running a route on 76% of dropbacks if you prefer your flex plays to wear three or four condoms. … Logan Thomas still has the ideal fantasy role, ranking 3rd in routes and top-10 in targets and air yards. The environment around him keeps him in the low-end TE1 ranks, however. The Bills’ LBs and SSs are healthier this year, so we should expect them to handle TEs better in 2021.
Antonio Gibson losing two-minute drill snaps is inarguably bad for his top-10 RB case as over 20% of RB targets in general are in these six minutes (if we include the 57th and 58th minutes, too). J.D. McKissic is simply too good in this role, and Gibson is too raw at RB to put too much on his plate. I don’t see this dynamic changing for a while. With that said, Gibson is running slightly more routes this year, so he can still backdoor as a low-end RB1. The QB injury, the OL play, and this week’s matchup make that an uphill climb.
32. Jets (15.0, +11.5) @ DEN
We all saw the Week 2 clips, and LT Mekhi Becton isn’t walking through the door for awhile. Zach Wilson is going to be on the struggle bus against the Broncos’ well-coached and talented defense. Vegas hands the Jets a 15-point projection here.
Corey Davis got the double-team treatment from Bill Belichick in Week 2, and things won’t be easier here. I still expect him to be heavily targeted throughout the year as a boom-bust WR3/flex, but the situation is so bad right now that I don’t blame anyone for putting him on the bench. … It’s fair to bench rookie Elijah Moore until he proves something. So far, he’s running a route on 83% of dropbacks and has 17% target and 26% air yards shares. … I literally can’t with Braxton Berrios, but Jamison Crowder (groin) DNP on Wednesday. … Just say no to Jets TEs.
Update: Jamison Crowder (groin) is doubtful. Braxton Berrios will be joining Corey Davis (X) and Elijah Moore (Z) in 3-WR sets.
Michael Carter is going to be the clear-cut starter soon. His tape is good. Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson’s aren’t. 11.5-point road underdogs isn’t the time to sneak Carter into fantasy lineups, but his day as a 50% or higher snap player is coming if the film isn’t lying. How much that matters in a Jets backfield is up for debate.
Update: Tevin Coleman (illness) is out. He was being phased out last week.