A three-down prospect lands in an offense desperate for a three-down workload. He’s viewed as a crutch for the aging Big Ben, and thus should see upwards of 300 touches immediately. Even if Roethlisberger and the offensive line is as bad as we think, Harris will get there with volume.
I’ll always bet on productive, 21-year-old early declares from elite college programs. Chase also comes with 89th percentile athleticism and reunites with his college QB in an offense that was sixth in neutral pass rate last year.
My draft model projects Approximate Value Per Game on a rookie contract. Pitts’ 0.46 AVPG is the highest ever at the position, and it’s not close: Vernon Davis (0.41), Eric Ebron (0.35), Noah Fant (0.34), T.J. Hockenson (0.33). With Julio Jones’ contract tradable post-June 1st this year, Pitts has TE5 potential as a rookie and could be the TE1 overall by the end of his rookie contract as Travis Kelce exits his prime. Lumping Pitts in with other first-round TEs is arguably an insult to Pitts’ receiving talent.
It’s possible Urban Meyer views Etienne as a weapon rather than three-down player right now, but he has three-down potential long-term when James Robinson presumably fades out. Getting paired with Trevor Lawrence gives him a reasonable floor and we’ve seen the upside via his home run ability.
Williams’ broken tackle metrics, overall Power 5 production, and character (a H.S. valedictorian) are worth betting on, but the landing spot is just so-so. Similar to his North Carolina situation, Melvin Gordon will likely block Williams’ receiving production as a rookie and there are some concerns that he’ll be pigeon-holed as an early-down-only back. Even if that happens, we know this coaching staff and overall roster wants to play keep away and lean on the run game and defense.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
Unlike John Ross, Tavon Austin, Corey Coleman, and other undersized first-round busts, Smitty earned his production in the SEC against highly-athletic press-man corners. Philly’s short-term quarterback situation isn’t ideal because of overall volume, but the WR depth chart is one of the worst in the NFL and Smith should have no issues leading the team in targets early on. When in doubt, bet on productive players from Alabama.
An eye test stud, Waddle will immediately start in the slot and eat on intermediate crossers and RPO slants in the Tua Tagovailoa offense. Will Fuller and Mike Gesicki are on one-year deals, and DeVante Parker is aging out of his prime. It’s possible that Waddle is Tua’s top target by 2022.
Even if he’s stuck in the slot, Moore is an exciting long-term prospect (with an avenue to start as a rookie if Jamison Crowder is cut/traded in August). He has 90th percentile athleticism (4.35 forty) with 99th percentile adjusted college production. What’s not to like?
My model and eyes are sold on Bateman as a prospect, and I’m anticipating the Ravens offense adding a few percentage points to their neutral pass rates with him in the starting lineup. Capable of winning in the slot or outside, Bateman unlocks the passing offense in Baltimore with crisp route running, length, and zone-coverage finesse. He’s a much better bet for production within the sticks than boom-bust Marquise Brown.
Yeah, he’s tiny, but the depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins is wide open and the Kyler Murray offense will always be fast-paced. Moore’s 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism will be utilized in the screen game, in the backfield, and on mesh (an Air Raid staple). Expect him to be second in targets as soon as the second half of his rookie season. Oh, and his injury history is arguably overstated. Please add context to the “only seven games played since 2019”. Purdue played just six games last year.
The boom-bust prospect became even more boom-bust when his injury history was flagged a week before the NFL Draft. Landing in Carolina’s offense late in the second round bailed out his draft-weekend slide because he was reunited with his college OC and could be the №2 in the offense in his sophomore season with Robby Anderson in the final year of his contract. He needs to show more consistency as a route runner and as a run-blocker to earn that WR2 role.
My scouting report on him here, and now he gets the ideal landing spot attached to Kyle Shanahan in a backfield that is set to lose Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson following 2021.
What can I say that you haven’t heard already? The tiebreaker over dual-threat options Trey Lance and Justin Fields is Lawrence’s perceived floor and his own rushing ability. Don’t let the luscious locks distract you from his incredible athleticism.
The upside is enormous given his dual-threat abilities, character, scheme fit, and surrounding talent. He’ll be paired with Kyle Shanahan, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel for most of his rookie contract. If he can adjust to NFL speed and fix the mechanical issues of his deep-ball placement, the ceiling is the roof. You can justify him being higher on this list.
The NFL clearly sees more flaws in Fields’ game than we do, but his ceiling remains intact. In addition to having awesome arm strength, he’s extremely accurate to all areas and has 4.4s speed. If Allen Robinson and underrated play-caller Matt Nagy can hang around for a few seasons, Fields should work out despite the slight draft-night slide.
The production profile is far from perfect and there’s a lot of target competition short-term in a very bad passing offense, but Toney can only be dropped so far as a first-round prospect from a rock-solid college program. Evan Engram is unsigned in 2022 and Sterling Shepard can be cut then, too.
“Power 5 Kenny Gainwell” doesn’t have a three-down profile as a 201-pound back with a split back history, but he’s the most-talented back on the Jets’ 2021 roster, is a perfect scheme fit in LaFleur’s outside zone system, and has the traits to be a plus-level third down back. An Alvin Kamara workload (10 carries, 5 targets per game) minus the goal-line production wouldn’t be a surprise at all.
I’m nervous about Wilson’s size and how much his BYU tape translates, but how low can the №2 overall pick be ranked, especially when he has some athleticism? Wilson also gets the benefit of having Mekhi Becton, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Elijah Moore, Corey Davis, and Denzel Mims as his rookie-year supporting cast. Hopefully the Jets don’t let this implode.
The ceiling is capped because he’s not a threat for 15+ rushing yards per game, but the landing spot makes a lot of sense. He’ll work as Bill Belichick’s in-pocket puppet, something he did at a record-setting level at Alabama with Belichick’s BFF Nick Saban. Jones athleticism and arm strength are weaknesses but arguably aren’t eliminators. Can he be Matt Ryan or Philip Rivers? Yes.
The floor here is reasonable as a productive, Power 5 early-declare, but Brown’s Round 3 draft capital and path to targets with Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel locked up long-term is suspect. He’ll operate as a vertical threat №3 receiver as a rookie while he develops a fuller route tree.
Underrated by the analytics community because he was stuck behind alphas at Clemson, Rodgers profiles as a reliable slot receiver who is likely to start for years to come unlike the boom-bust prospects going in this range. Let’s just hope that Aaron Rodgers hangs around for the next year or so for him to take off. “Round 3 Deebo Samuel” was my pre-draft comp, and the Packers will use him in similar ways behind, at, and near the line of scrimmage.
His pre-draft profile is better than this ranking would suggest, but Freiermuth will have to overcome quarterback uncertainty and a depth chart that features Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson, and Najee Harris long-term.
Hayden Winks’ Rookie TE Rankings
I don’t like betting on 24-year-old prospects from Western Michigan often, but Eskridge’s redshirt senior season was phenomenal on a per-game basis and his athletic traits (straight-line speed) match up well with the Seahawks’ №3 receiver role. There will be 50+ yard touchdowns as long as Russell Wilson hangs around Seattle long-term.
His tape was better than his analytical profile because of Tennessee’s quarterback situation, and this fit couldn’t be better. Palmer’s downfield ability matches up well attached to Justin Herbert, especially with Mike Williams not under contract beyond 2021 right now.
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Collins’ pre-draft profile and tape were average, but the Houston landing spot is quietly decent solely because of target competition (or the lack thereof). The Texans are likely to get out of Brandin Cooks’ contract following the 2021 season, potentially leaving Collins atop the depth chart going into next offseason when the front office will reset at quarterback.
His overall profile is forgettable, but he has the easiest path of any non-Round 1 receiver to lead his own receiver depth chart in targets in the short term. The Lions will start Breshad Perriman, Tyrell Williams, and St. Brown this year. He can likely be flipped for a profit next offseason.
His size (5’8/155) doesn’t match well with what he’ll be tasked to do in Los Angeles. Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods hog slot snaps, leaving Atwell on the perimeter where he’ll face some press-man coverage. He was likely drafted as a downfield threat for Matthew Stafford, but he may have to wait for DeSean Jackson to move on before seeing many reps.
Hubbard has three-down upside (remember when he rushed for 2,000 yards at OKST?) and lands on a team that’s used a bellcow back for years. He’s one Christian McCaffrey ankle roll away from possibly seeing 15–20 touches per game.
He’s a run-blocker right now, but Tremble has the athleticism, pedigree, and age of a potential late-blooming receiver. He faces little competition in Carolina short-term, too.
Miami’s 2021 draft suggests they are ready to move on from Mike Gesicki following 2021, leaving Long as an every-down option possibly beginning in 2022.
Screw analytics. Powell is a perfect scheme fit in Kansas City as a potential X receiver who can run-block and win in contested catches unlike Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Byron Pringle, and the rest of the receiver depth chart. He could play meaningful snaps as a rookie, and the Chiefs don’t have the cap space to bring in notable free agent receivers given their stars and scrubs roster approach. Oh, and Travis Kelce is 32 years old.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
He’s the worse version of Damien Harris, and Bill Belichick will always find a pure receiving back to cloud up the backfield.
My pre-draft scouting report on him here, and now he gets the unideal landing spot in Philadelphia behind Miles Sanders (and maybe Boston Scott/Kerryon Johnson) attached to a run-first quarterback.
Based on experience, athleticism, and film, I thought Mond was the clear QB6 ahead of Davis Mills and Kyle Trask. Mond draws pretty dead for 2021 starts, but the Vikings can trade Kirk Cousins in a cap-saving move next offseason. He adds some intrigue as a dual-threat quarterback who has avoided turnovers despite facing SEC competition.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
Off-field concerns caused a slide, but ISM had better on-field tape than his overall profile would suggest. He’s a crafty route runner who has a chance to be a three-receiver starter in 2021 and a two-receiver set starter long-term with Adam Thielen, 31, potentially gone within the next two seasons.
This is purely a long-term play if my eyes aren’t lying to me. He’s a rare athlete but needs development as a route runner and ball tracker before he starts. That just happens to match the timeline of the Browns’ receiver depth chart: Odell Bekcham ($0 guaranteed in 2022) and Jarvis Landry ($1.5M guaranteed in 2022).
He was a productive in a zone-based scheme at Louisiana, and he lands in an offense that plays to his strength as a one-cut runner with 4.38 speed. Both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson aren’t under contract after this season. Mitchell easily could be the №2 back for Kyle Shanahan in 2022.
Chris Simms noted that Hawkins went undrafted in part because of an undisclosed off-field concern. If he’s available, Hawkins has a chance to carve out a role in Atlanta behind Mike Davis and a barren Falcons’ running back depth chart. His tape was a lot of fun, and he’s a productive Power 5 early declare.
For whatever reason, Evans barely played at Michigan, but he certainly passed the eye test and has 96th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism. It’s possible that he steals the №2 job from Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine behind Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, and we all know Mixon’s injury history.
Even if Harris is listed as a receiver right now, it’s possible that Harris qualifies for tight end long-term. He was listed as a “TE” by the Rams’ social team on draft night, and their receiver depth chart is really deep which may mean he’s viewed as a developmental tight end. His 100th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and 2020 production suggests there’s a massive ceiling to chase as a flier.
Before testing like a 7th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete, Jordan had some Round 2 buzz. At least he fell into a depth chart that’s wide open in Houston. Maybe he outperforms his pro day and draft capital if he was playing through an injury or something.
The productive undersized tight end falls right into the offense (Colts) that actually uses that archetype of tight end. Jack Doyle can be released without repercussions next offseason if the fourth-rounder shows anything as a rookie.
My model is going to be wrong on Trask, and the Bucs landing spot just means he’s not playing for two-plus years. Trask will be one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL.
His 2020 tape was not good, but he might actually make some 2021 starts for the expansion-roster Texans. He’ll likely be bad and replaced with a first-overall quarterback the following season.
Nothing about his profile sticks out on the surface, but the Titans’ depth chart behind A.J. Brown is Lions-level bad. He might sneak into the starting lineup late into his rookie season.
He’s older (because of a mission trip), but he has 4.43 speed at 6’3/222 and is now tied to Dak Prescott. The bull case is that he earns a few snaps as a rookie and competes for the №3 job with Michael Gallup unsigned beyond the 2021 season. Amari Cooper can also be cut or traded pain free next offseason, too.
He’s a better prospect than this ranking would suggest, but he has Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, and possibly some other receivers ahead of him on the Bucs’ roster.
He has starting potential if his knee can heal, but the landing spot is brutal in Baltimore behind Rashod Bateman, Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, and possibly Devin Duvernay.
He’s had a three-down workload in the SEC, but Hill fell in the draft after a bad 2020 season and is the RB3 for the Packers with two highly-invested backs ahead of him.
A quality between the tackles grinder, Jefferson will battle for the №3 running back job behind D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, but his 9th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism limits his chances.
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Hayden’s Top-50 Rookie Draft Rankings was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>Best Ball Mania II is underway at Underdog Fantasy, meaning you’re live to win $3.5M in prizes. Since I can’t play myself, my entire mission this offseason is to help one of The Underdog Football Show subscribers take home the $1,000,001 first-place prize. (That’s the biggest best ball prize of all time for those keeping track at home.)
Step one in that goal is to get a baseline projection for all players following the 2021 NFL Draft, but these are just that — a baseline. The entire offseason will be filled with projection-tinkering stemming from debates with Josh Norris. As we go, I’ll update the projections, which can be found on this Google Sheet… and eventually live on the Underdog Fantasy app.
Before we get in, I want to distinguish my personal rankings from my personal projections. They are often very similar, but projections are more or less a median outcome for a player and we shouldn’t be drafting based on median outcomes. Most of the best ball money is awarded to the top 3%, so we need to factor in upside to our best ball teams. For example, Trey Lance’s season-long projection is low-ish because he’s not a lock to start all games, but I’d rank him higher than my season-long projection because he has top-10 upside if he did start all games (as you’ll see with his per-game projection below). Make your own upside adjustments in the draft lobby.
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Some takeaways:
Some takeaways:
Some takeaways:
Some takeaways:
2021 Fantasy Football Projections was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>With the draft completed, we now can refresh the post-draft model to see how the class stacks up. The model knows where players were drafted (draft capital matters) but doesn’t know who drafted them, so we’ll have to make contextual adjustments based on depth charts, coaching staffs, and timelines to win.
Trey Lance has FCS stats, so he’s not included.
My scouting reports and pre-draft rankings:
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
My scouting reports and pre-draft rankings:
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
My scouting reports and pre-draft rankings:
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
My scouting reports and pre-draft rankings:
Hayden Winks’ Rookie TE Rankings
Hayden’s Post-Draft Rookie Model was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>Because we’re launching Best Ball Mania II (a $3.5M best ball tournament) on Monday after the 2021 NFL Draft, I’ll be updating my best ball rankings and adding written analysis live throughout the draft. And the fun doesn’t stop there… We’re giving away $25 Best Ball Mania II entrees with any Underdog Fantasy deposit from now until Monday!!! Deposit, read these rankings, and have a chance of taking home $1,000,001. Welcome to Hot Best Ball Summer!
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Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
Hayden Winks’ Rookie TE Rankings
Live Best Ball Rankings Changes was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>32 picks and prospect fits.
Here’s a doc filled with the reporter quotes I reference throughout this post.
Not a surprise, but he’s my QB1 in this class.
A one-year wonder against a weak Independent schedule (12th percentile among drafted QBs), Wilson’s transition may be difficult early with his pockets shrunk in half and with those 50/50 balls harder to complete against NFL defensive backs. His arm talent and competitiveness leave him outs to succeeding despite his boom-bust profile.
This is a predictive mock, not what you or I would do. Very few credible predictions suggest this won’t be Jones with almost zero saying Justin Fields. Jones isn’t as bad of an athlete as some make him out to be, and I understand why Kyle Shanahan would value Jones’ pre-snap knowledge and accuracy. I wrote about it all in detail here:
All options make sense, but new coach Arthur Smith likely didn’t take the job without believing in the offensive core of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley. Adding a potential Hall of Fame tight end will hide some of Ryan’s 36-year-old limitations, and Smith’s background is coaching tight ends. As for a trade down, the quarterback-needy teams picking later may find a cheaper trade with the Lions (7) or Panthers (8) worth the risk of potentially losing their guy, so Atlanta’s phone may not ring as often as we’ve been told.
Bengals reporter Joe Goodberry believed that this was the direction the front office was headed towards when he came on The Underdog Football Show last week, and I was already leaning that way. Cincy’s true offensive line needs are at right guard and center, not offensive tackle. And Bengals GM Duke Tobin mentioned that the offensive line depth is good in this class: “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on … We think having healthy guys there and then the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and (there will) still be additions to be named later.” I agree.
Did the Dolphins really move up from 12th to 6th overall to draft one of the Alabama receivers knowing all of the QBs, Chase, Pitts, and others were going to be drafted ahead of them? I’m not fully sold, especially after the Ereck Flowers trade on Tuesday and with ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reporting that they want to move Hunt to guard (where he was listed at going into last year’s draft). Tua Tagovailoa would have two starting first-round tackles on rookie contracts in this scenario with four other top-100 picks in the stockpile. And I have a plan on how to use them…
I’m not confident in this projection — I wanted to mock them a trade down — but Lance is the quarterback prospect most likely to bite kneecaps. He was recruited as a Power 5 linebacker before crushing the FCS level at quarterback, and he’s a physical runner who also checks every off-field box. Lance still fits the Lions’ long-term rebuild plans with Jared Goff available to start all 2021 games.
I’m not sold that the Patriots would even have to trade up to land Fields, who is unfortunately a slide candidate on Thursday. ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes there’s an 80–95% chance that he’s available at pick seven or eight, a statement that adds to the rumors of the last month or so suggesting Twitter likes Fields more than the NFL does. In fact, this seems on the high end of Fields’ range of outcomes. With that said, New England is a perfect landing spot for the dual-threat prospect with the offense already designed for Cam Newton, Fields’ long-time mentor. A rookie QB contract would allow Bill Belichick to continue spending in free agency.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
Many sharp analysts are mocking Waddle to the Dolphins at sixth, and I nearly did that myself. I just couldn’t pull the trigger on this smart front office drafting a slot receiver over a left tackle. The good news is that Miami has two firsts, two seconds, and a third-rounder this draft. If they are all in on Waddle as many reports suggest, they can trade up and get him. They’ll just need to get ahead of the Giants and Eagles to make it happen. Luckily the Broncos are trade down candidates.
Everyone is expecting a corner to come off the board here, but it’s not a lock that Patrick Surtain goes ahead of Horn, who is more athletic and more aggressive. While not as polished, Horn provides the physicality of a Cover 3 corner, which he’d be playing in Dallas under Dan Quinn. This is also a hedge on Surtain going ahead of 10th overall.
In a class full of mysteries, Paye provides some semblance of a floor at edge rusher. He’s an elite athlete with positive off-field character and medicals. For these reasons (and because ESPN’s Jordan Raanan listed him ahead of Jaelan Phillips on his most likely list), I lean Paye over Phillips as the first defensive end off the board.
I also loved Benjamin Solak’s point on his Bleeding Green podcast about how the Eagles have only been picking players with 60th percentile scores in the forty, vertical, and broad. Athleticism is a priority, and Surtain is a 93rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete. He fills a major hole as the CB2 next to Darius Slay, whomst he’d replace long-term. This would be a light’s out pick, especially with Surtain’s experience in a Cover 2/4/7 system like the one DC Jonathan Gannon is bringing from Indianapolis and Minnesota.
Both SI’s Albert Breer and NBC’s Peter King also mocked this connection, and it couldn’t make more sense. Slater has positional versatility for an offensive line that can use an upgrade at left tackle and one of the guard spots, plus he’s considered a high-character person off-field. I’ve been around GM Tom Telesco plenty, and the latter is very important to him. Getting Justin Herbert’s blindside cleaned up this draft is an absolute must.
Vera-Tucker’s versatility and athleticism fits the Minnesota zone-rushing offense. The Athletic’s Arif Haasan notes that the Trojan passes all of the Vikings’ athletic testing. This scenario would mean former second-rounder Ezra Cleveland would move to left tackle, the position he played at Boise State.
Groomed by the trade-down Seahawks, Fitterer stays flexible for the 2022 offseason when Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and/or Deshaun Watson could be available. Between not trading up to third overall and trading for Sam Darnold, I’d be somewhat surprised to see the Panthers stay at 8 and draft a quarterback. Trading with New England checks every criteria, and Darrisaw immediately becomes their highest-upside offensive lineman and starting left tackle. It’s worth noting that Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said arm length is “important for offensive linemen” and “it is a factor that we look at.” Darrisaw smashes thresholds with 34.25-inch arms.
Arizona arguably doesn’t have the draft capital (only two picks inside the top-159 for a trade up), but Smith going in the teens is now expected after learning that his size is actually being held against him in NFL circles. In Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense, Smith’s petite frame can easily be hidden in the slot or against lower-level corners in four-receiver sets. DeAndre Hopkins can occupy opposing CB1s, leaving Smith to feast using his mind, length and toughness. This is a luxury pick, but the top two corners are already off the board.
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Classic Raiders. Parsons’ athleticism is off the charts, but he’s likely off some draft boards for his off-field history. The Raiders have been willing to take on risk before, and Parsons is arguably one of the only blue-chip prospects remaining. All of their moves this offseason indicate that Jon Gruden is over getting zero stops on defense. Parsons would help.
The Teddy Bridgewater trade lowers their odds of selecting a quarterback, and I had all five off the board before they were on the clock at 9 here. Instead of forcing a pick, they trade back and land a classic Vic Fangio inside linebacker. He’s a 260-pounder with decent coverage skills. He’d sit right in the middle of Denver’s Cover 2 base defense.
Washington trading for Ereck Flowers makes an OT or OG less of a priority and pushes up positions like linebacker to the top. Ben Standig not only covers Washington for The Athletic, but he’s also been an elite mock drafter for years. When he makes a prediction about the Football Team, I’m tailing. Davis has the size, speed, and college production of a first-round linebacker. He’s just less hyped because he’s a one-year wonder. As a side note, I liked o4.5 LBs if you can catch that at plus odds. It’s a “safe” position with four off-ball linebackers and Azeez Ojulari headlining this year’s class.
Chicago is a trade up candidate, but that’d require ownership approval and I’m not convinced GM Ryan Pace can mortgage the future while on the hot seat. The next best thing for him and coach Matt Nagy would be getting Andy Dalton another weapon, particularly with Allen Robinson on the franchise tag and Anthony Miller on the trade block. Moore would be an electric slot option underneath while Darnell Mooney operates downfield from the outside.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
Phillips has top-10 talent and athleticism, but his medical and off-field history makes him a wild card in this draft. Anything as high as pick 8 wouldn’t surprise me. A fall wouldn’t surprise me either. Here, I split the difference. Phillips has the upside to transcend this already serviceable defense. They’d look for a starting left tackle on Day 2 in this situation.
This one makes a lot of sense to me. Bateman is an excellent route runner with inside/out experience. He’d be a great Corey Davis replacement and has shown the blocking skills required in this balanced offense. The front office has to do something about the 47.9% available targets.
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mocked this earlier, and his close friend happens to be the GM of the Jets. Schematically, the pairing is ideal. Etienne’s burst will be maximized in LaFleur’s outside zone rushing scheme, and the Jets are bereft of running back talent on the roster. While I wouldn’t bet on him being the first running back selected like I have him mocked here, I’m not ruling a trade back up into the back half of Round 1 for him.
The offensive line needs a lot of work, but I can totally see the front office wanting to take the air out of the ball after Ben Roethlisberger’s 2020 season. For right or wrong, Harris’ bellcow projection would do just that. As you can see, there’s so much smoke here that it’s hard not to buy it to some degree.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
The Jaguars need to build for the long-term, and Oweh fits that timeline as a pass-rusher with zero (0) sacks. His 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism leaves him with a high ceiling if Urban Meyer, who recruited Oweh in college, can groom him. If the goal is to win in two or three years, Oweh is worth a late-round flier.
The Browns released three-tech Sheldon Richardson this offseason and don’t have a long-term replacement on the roster. Barmore is the highest-upside three tech in the class and consensus DT1 overall. From an analytics perspective, Barmore checks early declare, Power 5, and athletic boxes.
Trading RT Orlando Brown leaves a massive hole at offensive tackle, especially with LT Ronnie Stanley coming off a major injury. Protecting Lamar Jackson is an obvious priority, and Jenkins is the top-ranked right tackle of the class.
Farley has top-12 overall tape and athleticism, but two back surgeries make him a boom-bust selection. The Saints haven’t been scared of taking risks historically and need a home run pick to keep this roster in the NFC Championship mix.
This would be a best player available selection, while also filling a need at linebacker. The Packers have needed upgrades for years, and Owusu-Koramoah would be awesome in their Cover 2 zone defense. He can defend tight ends, running backs, and slot corners out in space.
Buffalo’s cornerback depth chart is quietly really bad beyond their CB1. Newsome would be considered one of the steals of the draft if he falls this far, something I’m not expecting to happen.
A blitzing single-high Cover 1 defense, Baltimore doesn’t have the safety help to prevent the big play, nor do they have the free safety that can fly into the box against the run. Moehrig played a versatile role in college and is the consensus top safety in the class. He’ll play a similar position to the one Ed Reed left behind… just not at that level.
Ojulari’s medicals are reportedly a legit concern, but the Bucs are in “win now” mode given their roster and they can keep him on a snap count if need be. He’d be a plus run defender and JPP insurance immediately. Not pegged as a high-upside pass rusher, Ojulari just needs to win one-on-ones opposite Shaq Barrett long term.
Hayden Winks’ Final 2021 Mock Draft was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>32 picks and prospect fits.
Trevor Lawrence is in a tier of his own in this class, and enters a situation surrounded by D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and James Robinson. Not bad!
It will be fascinating to watch a QB who played behind a dominant OL that created throwing highways during his final season line up and face Bill Belichick, Brian Flores and Sean McDermott six times per year.
This is the pivot point for all mock drafts. The closer we get, the less likely I think Mac Jones is the selection. Kyle Shanahan asked Trey Lance to work with John Beck, a friend, after the Bison already worked with Quincy Avery… how often does that happen? When has a decision maker had such a heavy hand in a prospect’s pre-draft process? Justin Fields also worked with Beck pre-draft.
I simply can’t wrap my head around trading two future firsts, plus a third-round pick, to draft “more of the same.” Now is the time to get a quarterback who elevates the ceiling when the plan of the play is figured out. In the end, though, only Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch know the answer. So any “league source” not named Shanahan or Lynch likely has the same level of knowledge that we do.
Massive decision for the Falcons here that shapes their franchise for the next five or so years. Do you take the young quarterback while in the Top 5, a position you never want to be in again, or create possibly the best WR-WR-TE pairing in the NFL? There are numerous teams with Kyle Pitts as the №1 player on their board.
Cincy will have one of the top two players on their board reach this selection. That is a tremendous spot to be in. On our podcast, Bengals legend Joe Goodberry seemed comfortable saying Chase would be selected over Penei Sewell — as the Riley Reiff signing likely indicates the team is comfortable with both tackle spots.
Kyle Pitts dropping to this slot would be Miami’s dream. Even if Chase is on the board, I could see the Dolphins prioritizing Waddle. Why? Will Fuller and DeVante Parker threaten the outside, with Waddle and Mike Gesicki operating over the middle of the field. Moving back from №3, to №12, then back up to №6 is a clear indication Chris Grier wants to exit this draft with one of the top three pass catchers for Tua.
This pick is either the Lions own selection, or a possible Chargers move (ahead of Carolina) if the price drops.
Sewell will be the selection if still on the board. Then a possible trade out. And if that fails or the value does not match, Horn fits. He’s an alpha, physically gifted corner who asked for the best of the best in the SEC. Look for Rashawn Slater or Caleb Farley in a possible trade down.
Quarterback was checked off on the to-do list, and now it is time to build the ideal situation to succeed on offense by investing in the OL. Jaycee Horn is another possibility.
It feels like there are four players under consideration for the Cowboys: Surtain, Jaycee Horn, Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater.
It’s very tempting to give Dave Gettleman his top pass rusher, but instead this fills an obvious need with a defensive playmaker over the middle of the field.
Worst case scenario for the Eagle? With Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn likely topping the list. Smith might create a schism between the coaching staff and analytics side — which is nothing new.
Again, the Chargers could move up if the Lions drop their asking price. If not, Darrisaw makes sense as the next option to protect the left side.
Mike Zimmer’s love for Jaelen Phillips has created more and more buzz on the mock draft streets.
If Justin Fields makes it beyond №3 and №8, I have absolutely no clue where he will land. This would be such a great fit. Look up any comment that Bill Belichick said about Deshaun Watson and Cam Newton (before he signed). Bill appreciates pocket passers with plus athleticism.
This is another player to team connection that is picking up steam. Steve Keim seems to have plenty of confidence in his linebacker evaluations. Is there an outside shot to take Elijah Moore here?
We have a Rookies & Sophomores tournament live right now, with the Best Ball Mania II tournament coming right after the NFL Draft. Get ready for Hot Best Ball Summer, folks.
This addition would allow the Raiders to move Denzelle Good to tackle. AVT is widely beloved.
Jaylen Waddle and Travis Etienne, along with Will Fuller this offseason. That is some real juice. Najee Harris is absolutely a possibility, but Etienne offers that extra gear to his game.
Ron Rivera and Marty Hurney have a long history of athletic linebackers being difference makers on that side of the ball.
Ryan Pace has been here before.
A trade out into the later part of the first round for a tackle prospect makes plenty of sense, maybe with the Saints who want to move up for Caleb Farley. Instead, giving the Colts pass rushing help is another common thought.
Buzz continues to build for Elijah Moore, higher and higher. The Titans once had Jonnu Smith and prioritized Adam Humphries in free agency. Moore could eat in that area of the field.
There’s a tier of pass rushers here, and each team likely ranks them differently. Let’s go with Tryon, who boasts a very similar athletic profile to Robert Quinn, without the same kind of edge bend. We know Robert Saleh values defensive line depth and talent.
The Steelers beat seems certain Harris will be the pick if on the board. He’s solid, but it simply does not make sense if the Steelers repeat their style from 2020… with arguably a worse offensive line.
JOK could go much, much earlier. His versatility to play multiple alignments likely is coveted across the NFL.
Despite spending on defensive back, this still feels like a need. And it also starts a corner run.
Baltimore’s secondary remains one of the best in the league. But a team with a proud pass rushing history has been yearning for a primary outside threat. Oweh is an unreal athlete, which gives him an instant advantage in 1 on 1 situations.
The link between Farley and the Saints seems to be strong — to the point of a possible trade up. And we know the Saints are not afraid of being aggressive when acquiring target players.
Find a corner that can play with Jaire Alexander.
Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are entering contract years. I am incredibly tempted to connect a pass rusher here for that reason. Instead, let’s go with the corner with great ball skills.
There are a number of tackles who fit this area of the draft — Eichenberg, Brady Christensen, Alex Leatherwood. We all know the Ravens traded Orlando Brown, but an argument can be made that Center is the easiest area to upgrade.
Need to fit Barmore in round one, and eventually replacing Ndamukong Suh makes sense.
Josh Norris’ Final 2021 Mock Draft was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>Let’s get this out of the way right at the top. I think Justin Fields is a total baller. He’s my QB2 and would be the QB1 in most classes. His accuracy, arm strength, toughness, pedigree, and athleticism are off the charts good, and there’s a reasonable chance he’d be a Pro Bowl quarterback in the Kyle Shanahan offense. If I were Shanahan (I’m not), I’d sprint up to take Fields.
But that doesn’t mean that Mac Jones is a scrub either. In fact, Jones is a very good prospect himself. Calling him a lateral move from Jimmy Garoppolo or saying his ceiling is just Kirk Cousins is unfair and arguably lazy. Nobody in the Cousins, Garoppolo, or Teddy Bridgewater tier of “game managers” sniffed Jones’ college achievements, and none of them were being coached by Nick Saban and a plethora of top-shelf offensive coordinators in the years leading to the NFL.
Jones set college football’s QBR record, was in the 99th percentile in passing EPA, and in the 92nd percentile for passing touchdowns among drafted quarterbacks in their final collegiate season. And unlike the stat padders of the MAC, Jones did this against a 92nd percentile strength of schedule and didn’t lose a single game along the way. He ultimately graded higher in my model than Tua Tagovailoa did the year prior, and Jones did that with fewer weapons. Remember, Jaylen Waddle only played five games and Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs were in the NFL.
No matter how we slice it, Jones was phenomenal in 2020, but let’s see how he got there and if any of it is translatable to the next level.
This is a very hard thing to monitor from afar. I don’t know the Alabama playbook, nor the exact playcalls of the opposing defenses. I have some idea of how much of a pre-snap expert he is by watching his film, but to be certain of this, we’d need to be in the room. With that said, Jones appears to grade out very well here. Bryce Rossler of Sports Info Solutions wrote this in his excellent breakdown earlier this month:
“Time to Throw Over Expectation (TTOE) is a metric that considers drop type and play action to set a benchmark for how quickly the ball should come out. Jones’ TTOE of -0.24 ranked 14th among the aforementioned group, but he was far more productive. The thirteen players who ranked ahead of him combined for 244 Total Points. Jones himself accounted for 196.”
This completely checks out on tape. The Alabama offense used a ton of pre-snap motion to give Jones more clues about the coverage, and Jones did a great job of finding the mismatch before the ball was snapped. That’s likely just because he understands the play call and coverage better than most, and explains why many analysts applaud his ability to get the ball out quickly. We all know he’s not doing that because he’s faster twitched physically.
Mac pic.twitter.com/J8secyPVvY
A basic example: Jones gets a single-high look here, likely with man coverage because the CB runs with Jaylen Waddle on the motion and the outside CBs are staring at the WRs they’re defending. Each outside WR is running the same vertical route against the same outside leverage coverage, meaning there’s likely going to be a clean throwing lane inside when the WR turns. The free safety isn’t going to have time to break on the ball because he can’t get beat deep, so Jones can essentially stare down his WR this entire time. On the end zone angle, we can see Jones is doing just that.
One pre-snap misconception is that Jones is setting up his protections at the line of scrimmage more than other prospects. I didn’t really see that happen too often, assuming all of Alabama’s pre-snap motion and formation changes were pre-determined by the playcall and not Jones making those calls. The Crimson Tide looked to the sideline often before making these pre-snap changes, so I think I’m correct in saying that Jones wasn’t asked to make line of scrimmage protection calls in the same way that Trey Lance, or dare I say Justin Fields, did.
First off, this term historically has been biased-driven by NFL cocoon keepers with racial biases they are in denial about having. In this case, it’s fair to say Jones actually is a decent processor (although I’d argue he’s better processing pre-snap than he is processing during the play). He had the best passer rating on non-play action passes in 2020 and was third when kept clean per PFF, and these in-pocket metrics are the ones that have been most predictive at the NFL level.
Mac CB blitz pic.twitter.com/3bWGmqjyBe
A basic example: Jones has MOFO coverage pre-snap with his two best WRs at the bottom. After the snap and fake handoff, Jones immediately turns his eyes towards Devonta Smith because a LB is carrying him vertical. Jones ultimately doesn’t like the look with the safety over the top, so he goes to his second (or third) read across the field. That’s when he notices that top-side CB blitzed and that he now has a vertical WR in isolation against a safety with his feet stuck in mud. Three seconds later, that WR is in the end zone.
What we also see on this play is just how good Alabama’s protection was in 2020, and that’s what makes the Jones projection tricky. There really were just a few plays per game where Jones was dealing with pressure in his face, so it’s possible he gets happy feet behind a relatively worse offensive line at the next level.
Of course, the rebuttal to that is that QBs are responsible for some of the pressure they see, and Jones has been good at avoiding it, particularly compared to Justin Fields. PFF’s “Allowed Pressure” metric notes that Fields was partially responsible for 29% of his pressures while Jones was down at 18%. This stat paired with that SIS’s Time to Throw Over Expectation metric from above are reasons to believe he’ll avoid pressure more than most QBs at the next level, even if he’s not literally avoiding it with jukes inside the pocket.
The eye test and all charting shows that Jones is a very accurate passer. Rotoworld’s Derrik Klassen (it’s still Rotoworld to me damnit) notes in his Quantifying Quarterbacks series that Jones has good to great accuracy in all categories except throwing outside the pocket (and that Justin Fields is a MFin star).
Mac accuracy pic.twitter.com/zrgYZEzSVG
QBs rarely become less accurate at the next level and rarely actually improve their accuracy like Josh Allen, so Jones has a very bankable trait to work with in all offenses. Jones will be able to distribute on play action and on normal three- and five-step drops in Kyle Shanahan’s offense if he goes to San Francisco, but he didn’t run the Shanahan staple bootleg at Alabama very often, likely because of his limitations as an athlete.
Jones isn’t Lamar Jackson. But he also isn’t Brock Osweiler, Ryan Mallet, or Nick Foles as an athlete. At his pro day (which I know, QBs’ pro days don’t matter), Jones showcased a 45th percentile 40-yard dash, a 65th percentile three cone, and a 80th percentile broad jump. He can’t just luck into those scores. He has serviceable athleticism for an in-pocket quarterback. Just check out these moves!!!
Mac elite athleticism pic.twitter.com/N2c9yzSx4Z
Will he look as sick as Trey Lance on bootlegs and QB power in the red zone? Of course not. Do those plays happen enough for Shanahan to make athleticism a priority? That’s debatable. According to this 2017 tweet, Shanahan only used bootleg on 10% of his passes. Jones can probably move enough to not look like a total idiot on that little volume. Matt Ryan, a similar athlete to Jones, literally won an MVP doing so.
With that said, having an athletic QB is such a cheat code on zone read, QB power, bootlegs, and while scrambling no matter the offense. Particularly early on in a prospect’s career. Being able to create on the fly counteracts facing more complex NFL defenses and the fewer practice reps NFL offenses are getting in the offseason nowadays. An in-pocket QB also has less wiggle room now with front offices appearing to have less patience with their signal callers, so an average to below-average athlete like Jones has to be really good upstairs to work out.
This is the other part of “athleticism” for the position, and Jones is average (to below-average) here just as he is on the ground. Jones isn’t the backyard quarterback like the rest of the 2021 class is, and I’m not sure how many QBs have made strides with their arm strength at the next level. In theory, this lowers Jones’ overall ceiling.
Mac underthrows pic.twitter.com/xrH6Iz2w5s
As you can see, a few of his deep balls were underthrown at Alabama. It stinks that some YAC were lost on these throws, but at least most were still catchable and directionally accurate. Despite the forgettable arm strength, Jones had a 66% adjusted completion percentage on pass passes traveling 20+ yards through the air (4th out of 125 FBS qualifiers per PFF), simply because he’s really accurate…
Mac deep throws pic.twitter.com/mIwfyhUmIK
… and because he knows when to take his shots. A perfect example of this point comes in Sports Info Solutions’ charting. According to Bryce Rossler, Jones targeted the outside receiver in trips formation on just 11% of his throws, likely because he knows he doesn’t have the cannon to consistently get the ball to the sideline before a defensive back breaks. This takes some of the plays out of the playbook, but as long as Jones knows what throws he can and can’t make, he should keep his turnover-worthy throw rate in the elite category.
I’m only ever going to say things that are public about prospects and always want to remember that these are young, still-maturing adults. (Same!) From afar, we just don’t know who is a good person and who isn’t, so most of the time this is a segment to just skim past. In this case, Jones’ DUI (edit: only one DUI, not two) is impossible to ignore and deserve some digging into, especially when various other things have recently popped up on social media. Other QBs would be getting roasted for similar behavior, and it’s unfair how little attention this gets when anonymously-sourced reports get played on TV when it’s about Justin Fields. If you can’t spot the elephant in the room, well, then you just might be the elephant.
Jones is a forgettable athlete with passable arm strength, but everything else on the field looks pretty damn good to me. His production (career 56/7 TD/INT ratio with an 11.0 YPA) and advanced stats are exceptional. Particularly his accuracy, quick timing, and turnover-worthy plays metrics. I’m not sure anyone disagrees with that, so the debate is: 1) what about his college game is translatable, and 2) how high his ceiling is. And that’s just opinion vs. opinion.
To me, Jones is good enough in the pocket to make up for his lack of twitch, even in today’s NFL that’s loving dual-threat QBs for obvious reasons. He’s underrated moving within the pocket and isn’t so unathletic that he’s incapable of running bootleg or other play-action concepts. He’s also willing to take a huge hit and appears to be a pre-snap outlier like Joe Burrow. That’s a good baseline to work with from his film, and his stats suggest that his ceiling is higher than all of the QBs he’s often compared to:
College EPA & schedule percentilesMac Jones: 98th & 93rdDerek Carr: 95th & 9thSam Bradford: 94th & 97thDwayne Haskins: 89th & 84thJared Goff: 87th & 87thTeddy Bridgewater: 86th & 16thTua Tagovailoa: 86th & 80thMatt Ryan: 35th & 32ndKirk Cousins: 11th & 68th
… I just can’t rank him over Justin Fields.
If you agree or disagree with my takes, you should head over to the $25k Rookies & Sophomores Best Ball Tournament on Underdog Fantasy and put your money where your mouth is:
The Case For Mac Jones* was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>32 picks and prospect fits. Plus other Round 1 candidates.
As always, I’m in the business of making predictions, not making picks as if I were the GM. There will be some minor changes over the next week as more news roles through, but I’m beginning to feel good with these prospect/team fits and the ranges of where the prospects are expected to go.
I think there are some nuggets in here that’d help with the $25k Rookies + Sophomores Tournament that’s quickly filling because it’s so dope. I have an explainer column here with five strategy tips and my custom tailored rankings. If you’re new to Underdog, sign up below:
No report suggests otherwise.
I’m not sure why Wilson is considered a lock over Justin Fields, but no report suggests otherwise.
All three quarterbacks make sense here for different reasons. Justin Fields is the best (in my opinion) and has a long-term relationship with coach Kyle Shanahan. Trey Lance fits into the Jimmy Garoppolo one-year timeline, ran the closest offense to the 49ers’ in college, and has high-end dual threat traits that could transform San Francisco’s rushing offense. And Mac Jones resembles Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo the closest and arguably has the highest rookie year floor for this playoff-ready Niners roster. I currently lean Jones with Adam Schefter, Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, Peter Schrager, Peter King, and other insiders predicting the pick right now. If it were me drafting, I’d sprint the card up for Fields.
Benjamin Allbright reported that Falcons GM Terry Fontento likes Trey Lance “a lot”, but does the Falcons’ 78-year-old owner or the Falcons’ first year head coach want to rebuild right now with Matt Ryan’s contract holding the roster hostage for the next two years? I’m skeptical. Instead Atlanta can go with the best player available, or trade down. Only the Lions and Broncos are potentially in the rookie QB hunt inside the top-14 and it’s rare for teams picking inside the top-5 to drop all the way out of the top-14, so the Falcons just may not have a trade down suitor willing to give up multiple first round picks. The consolation prize here is Pitts, who is the best non-quarterback in this draft and the best tight end ever in my model.
When asked about offensive line prospects, Bengals GM Duke Tobin said, “There will be guys available in the second round, third round that we have starter grades on … We think having healthy guys there and then the addition of Riley Reiff, we think we’re in a better spot than we were and (there will) still be additions to be named later.” His assessment matches what most draft analysts are saying, which is that this offensive line class has plenty of starting talent on Day 2. Plus the actual short-term needs on this offensive line are at guard and center, not offensive tackle. With all that said, reuniting Joe Burrow with his productive LSU teammate checks out.
Broncos beat reporter Benjamin Allbright has been consistent in his reporting that the Broncos aren’t looking to trade up, but I think a small move from nine to six is a lot different than the moves fans have been begging for (ie moving all the way up to third or fourth). With the Dolphins looking to trade back and with DET/CAR being threats for quarterbacks at 7/8, Denver finds their future franchise quarterback with a small trade up the board. Lance has better tools than Drew Lock and could sit a half season as he goes from owning the FCS to not playing in 2020 and now up to the NFL.
It would be classic NFL if teams allow Bill Belichick to trade up for an accurate Power 5 passer with 4.44 speed, but I really think it’s possible if the 49ers pass on him at third overall. Fields would be a perfect fit in every scheme, including New England’s. After a free agency spending spree, the Patriots need to keep costs low at quarterback, and Fields’ dual-threat abilities could be applied nicely in an offense that’s been tailored towards Cam Newton’s strengths. It doesn’t hurt that Newton has been Fields’ mentor for years and that Fields is an absolute baller:
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie QB Rankings
With Sam Darnold on the roster and with the entire 2020 NFL Draft being spent on defense, the Panthers feel likely to draft an offensive lineman in Round 1. Despite a ton of hype, Penei Sewell isn’t a lock to be the first tackle off the board with many viewing Slater as a potential franchise left tackle with an All-Pro ceiling at guard if that fails. In fact, Jeremiah and Schrager both mocked Slater ahead of Sewell in their most-recent columns.
The trade back into the top-10 suggests this pick will be an offensive tackle or pass-catcher, and I lean Waddle over Smith if Chase and Pitts are off the board. Either Alabama receiver would complement the towering outside receivers in Miami (Devante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams), but there’s been rumors that Waddle is viewed as the better prospect by those inside the cocoon. Eric Galko, who owns a scouting service with ties to the NFL, told me on Twitter that he thinks “most of the league is Waddle > Smith (as am I).” Galko isn’t the type to spit b.s. either.
Predicting a trade up for an offensive lineman is the definition of galaxy-braining, but the Chargers did trade up for LB Kenneth Murray last year so there’s some precedent. And the fit couldn’t make more sense with L.A. having a massive hole at left tackle and with the Sewell to Justin Herbert connection adding a fun element to the entire thing. Now that I think about it more, it’d be a surprise if the Chargers aren’t considering a trade up for Sewell or Slater. P.S. Shoutout to Josh for coming up with this idea. And no, I don’t feel bad for stealing it.
I’m expecting Paye to be the first edge rusher off the board. His off-field story and reputation, 86th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, health, and Power 5 experience check all boxes. He’s also a perfect fit in New York. The Giants have some undersized role players on the roster, but they don’t have the 260-plus pounder flying off the edge. ESPN’s Jordan Raanan said, “Consider it a major upset if their first or second pick isn’t used on an edge rusher.”
By trading down, the Eagles likely won’t have to decide which pass-catcher to take. That decision was made by the Bengals and Dolphins earlier in the mock draft, leaving the 2020 Heisman in Jalen Hurts’ lap. Smith can be a volume receiver with underneath and intermediate ability while Jalen Reagor can focus on winning vertical routes. Whiffing on Reagor over Justin Jefferson shouldn’t make them afraid of drafting a receiver in this draft. That’s just playing scared.
Dallas’ biggest team need is an outside corner opposite Trevon Diggs, and Surtain has been the consensus top corner for months. In addition to having NFL bloodlines, Surtain has 93rd percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism (39-inch vert at 6’2/208) and executed college football’s most complex defense to near perfection.
It’s unclear if Ezra Cleveland is viewed as a left tackle or guard long term. With the consensus top two tackles already taken here, the Vikings push Cleveland to left tackle and bolster their suspect interior with Vera-Tucher, who is universally ranked as the best interior player in the class and a perfect fit as a fluid mover in the Vikings’ zone rushing scheme. Minnesota should also be in the mix for an edge rusher.
Parsons could go as high as seventh overall (ironically to the Lions) or slide because of his involvement in a Penn State hazing event. In this dream scenario for them, Detroit adds picks in future drafts and selects a versatile, blue-chip prospect on defense with 4.36 speed.
It’s too confident to say this is Horn’s absolute floor, but this is Horn’s absolute floor. The Cardinals don’t have a single long-term option at the position right now, and their defense requires high-end talent on the outside. They play a ton of Cover 1 man defense *and* blitz at top-five rates. Athleticism and press-man experience are the traits Arizona covets, and Horn has 97th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and pressed the hell out of the SEC all year long. This would be a home run pick.
The Trent Brown trade leaves Vegas with a wide open need at right tackle. Jenkins is the highest-graded right tackle in the class and has the on-field nastiness of a Gruden Raider. The Oklahoma State product is now locked into Round 1 after showing 90th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism at his pro day.
Miami traded for inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney this offseason, but Collins could be used in more creative ways than him because he is versatile and has quality athleticism and size (6’5/260). If you want an insane scouting report on Collins, check out Derrik Klassen’s column here. Klassen is a fantastic follow on Twitter, too.
The Football Team’s offensive line is serviceable but lacks top-tier talent and youth. Their youngest OL starter turns 28 years old in 2021. Darrisaw has immense potential if his inconsistent hustle can be cleaned up. Getting him in the building with coach Ron Rivera and respected journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick would be ideal for all parties.
Addressing cornerback or the offensive line would be in the best interest of the Bears’ long-term vision, but GM Ryan Pace and coach Matt Nagy don’t have long-term job security. Moore’s flashy playmaking will elevate Andy Dalton and complement Allen Robinson (intermediate) and Darnell Mooney (deep) immediately. Moore was in Daniel Jeremiah, Dane Brugler, and Peter Schrager’s latest mock drafts, and I have a glowing scouting report on him:
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie WR Rankings
Indy’s has two top-100 picks and two primary needs — LT (Anthony Castonzo retired) and EDGE (Justin Houston and Denico Autry are unsigned). With the top-tier tackles off the board, the Colts find their franchise edge rusher in Ojulari. He has 89th percentile adjusted production with plus attributes against the run as an edge setter. Because the Colts blitz on just 17% of their plays, finding a legit pass rusher is massively needed.
With Terrace Marshall’s reported injury concerns, Bateman seems like he’s the favorite to go Round 1 among the non-slot types in this range. In my opinion, Bateman was the better player already and comes with an underrated ceiling. He’s a lengthy receiver with inside/outside experience, nuanced footwork and coverage understanding, and 4.40 speed. He’d be excellent as the second receiver in Tennessee’s two-TE heavy offense.
It’s no secret that New York is really struggling at corner, and I think Newsome’s experience playing in off coverage matches well with coach Robert Salah’s Cover 3 defense. A 70th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete (4.38 forty), Newsome is one of four corners in this class who projects as an NFL CB1. It doesn’t hurt that they’ve had virtual meetings with each other already.
Adam Schefter had the 231-pound back on his podcast earlier this month and said, “I’ll bet you, I could see you as a Pittsburgh Steeler.” Harris noted that he’s met with essentially the entire organization already, too. I wouldn’t make this pick given their needs along the offensive line and at corner, but can’t you see them saying that Harris will make the line look better while also providing aging Ben Roethlisberger with an on-field crutch? I can.
Hayden Winks’ 2021 Rookie RB Rankings
Despite being listed as a linebacker by most, Owusu-Koramoah will likely play as a box safety with some snaps in the slot. He’s not a three-down thumping MIKE, and instead flashes in coverage with his speed and instincts. Owusu-Koramoah is the unicorn that’s expected to be able to run with tight ends, slot receivers, and running backs.
I’ll be lazy and slide the consensus №1 defensive tackle to Cleveland after they cut three-tech Sheldon Richardson this offseason. Barmore is raw, but he’s a 21-year-old early-declare with pedigree and a lot of twitch. He has a chance to be an inside pass-rusher with some development. Myles Garrett, Jadaveon Clowney, and Barmore would be a nice trio for 2021.
Baltimore desperately needs a physical outside receiver and an edge rusher, but their safety depth chart is quietly weak. Moehrig has a versatile skill set but best projects as a deep safety. In Baltimore, he’ll play a lot of single-high safety in their blitz-heavy Cover 1 man defense, but Moehrig can also defend tight ends in the slot and can fly into the box to clean up against the run. Safeties must be able to tackle in this aggressive defense, and Moehrig certainly can.
Davis’ production last year (102 tackles in 10 games) and pro day results this offseason (86th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) are that of a fringe Round 1 player. New Orleans’ defense looked at it’s best last year when current free agent Kwon Alexander was flying around the field next to 33-year-old Demario Davis. (Jamin) Davis could be an Alexander replacement this year and be the long-term answer for (Demario) Davis. It also helps that badass beat reporter Nick Underhill mocked Davis to the Saints in the Underdog Community Mock Draft.
Farley was getting top-10 buzz prior to his recent back surgery, the second of his career. It’s unknown if teams have received good or bad news since he went under the knife, but he definitely has Round 1 tape and athleticism. The Packers have some depth if Farley’s injury lingers as a rookie, but he’d be an immediate upgrade over Kevin King when he takes the field. Farley plus Jaire Alexander is scary.
Buffalo’s top edge rushers are 33-year-old Jerry Hughes and 34-year-old Mario Addison, and the defense was already trending down last year. They were 23rd in pressure rate despite blitzing at the ninth-highest rate. Those connected to the league believe Tryon may sneak into the end of Round 1. He certainly has the athleticism (4.59 forty at 6'5/259) to be considered here.
Leatherwood played left tackle at Alabama and has the athleticism (88th percentile Adjusted SPARQ) of a potential left tackle in the pros. Some see him as a high-ceiling guard, however. Either way is fine for the Chiefs who need help inside and outside. A Leatherwood selection here would leave the opportunity for either Eric Fisher or Mitchell Schwartz to return right before the season if their health clears up.
Tampa Bay doesn’t have any glaring needs, so they are a true best player available team with an emphasis on finding rookie-year impact players. Phillips is just that. The five-star recruit may fall for having an odd collegiate career that included a retirement and injuries, but if his background checks out (potentially a big if), Phillips has All Pro potential. He has 95th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism and had 80th percentile production in 2020. Phillips would be JPP insurance and could provide an EDGE3 spark.
RB Travis Etienne: A top-35 player for Grinding The Mocks, Dane Brugler, and Daniel Jeremiah. I wanted to fit him but didn’t like the fits late.
RB Javonte Williams: There’s not much of a gap between him and the top two RBs, if at all.
WR Kadarius Toney: All of the people I trust (including my eyes) say Elijah Moore > Toney.
WR Terrace Marshall: In the WR4 mix but injury history got flagged at the Combine re-check. I also thought he was a work in progress on tape, at least compared to Rashod Bateman.
WR Rondale Moore: The size, injury history, and aDOT concerns are real as much as we salivate over his athleticism and playmaking potential.
TE Pat Freiermuth: After Brevin Jordan’s pro day bust, he should be the consensus TE2. I love the coaching connection to the Jaguars early on Day 2.
OT/OG Sam Cosmi: Experience and plus athleticism made him a tough person to leave out.
OT/OG Liam Eichenberg: Likely a Day 2 starter without the Round 1 athleticism.
OT/OG Jalen Mayfield: A below-average pro day likely pushes him to guard and into Day 2.
OG/C Landon Dickerson: Easily can sneak in if his injury history gets cleared. Wild card prospect.
C Creed Humphrey: Experienced Power 5 athlete, but centers don’t often go Round 1 for whatever reason.
DT Levi Onwuzurike: A high-quality mover in a mediocre at best DT class.
EDGE Gregory Rousseau: A 2020 opt out with average athleticism isn’t a sure-fire Round 1 combo.
EDGE Jayson Oweh: 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athleticism, but a developmental project only. Zero sacks.
EDGE Carlos Basham: Eric Galko mentioned him as a potential surprise Day 1 pick, and Ben Fennell really liked him on one of latest podcasts.
EDGE Joseph Ossai: A crazy athlete (41.5 vert) from Texas with iffy the sack production.
CB Asante Samuel: NFL bloodlines with instincts, but size is a legitimate concern.
CB Eric Stokes: The better Georgia corner on tape also happens to have 4.29 speed.
The Underdog Football Show on Apple Podcasts
Hayden Winks’ 1 Week Out Mock Draft was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>These rankings are custom tailored for the Rookies + Sophomores Tournament on Underdog Fantasy. It’s a best ball league with $25k in prizes, but the player pool consists only of Gen Zers like myself and the drafts go quickly with only four teams in each draft. Knowing how each player projects is obviously important, but I also want to hit on five quick strategies.
Use this link to sign up!
1. Because there are only so many real-life starters, it’s very important not to whiff on QBs. Each team will need two starters, and there are only seven to nine QBs with a realistic path to lots of 2021 starts. I wouldn’t want to be the person left hanging with just one starting quarterback.
2. We don’t have to worry about TEs much because the starting roster each week is QB, RB, WR/TE, WR/TE, Flex (with seven bench spots). Notice there’s not a “TE” only position, so only draft one if you think he’ll outplay the available WRs.
3. There isn’t any data to back this up — this tournament a brand new concept after all — but I think the optimal roster construction here is 2 QBs, 3 or 4 RBs, and 6 or 7 WR/TEs. If I felt better about my top three RBs, then I’d draft the seventh WR/TE. And vice versa.
4. Draft a player that’s consistently going undrafted with your last (and second to last) pick. To win the tournament, you’ll need some differentiation between teams, and finding that deep sleeper could be the difference between a 1st and 10th place finish. Dyami Brown, Amari Rodgers, or Elijah Mitchell might qualify.
5. Use my rankings (or your own rankings!) in conjunction with the ADPs. If QBs are going way earlier or way later than the rankings, adjust! The rankings should act as an anchor, while roster construction and positional scarcity steer the ship.
Here is a Google Sheets of my rankings that can be downloaded to a CSV and then can be uploaded to Underdog using the “Rankings” tab on desktop. Please note that I only ranked the top-55 players. The rest are ADP based.
Don’t forget to draft players that are going undrafted in the last round!
The Underdog Football Show on Apple Podcasts
$25k Rookies + Sophomores Best Ball Tournament was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
]]>With the draft just a week away, we’ve called our friends across the industry to flush out the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Yes, the blonde kid from Clemson went first overall here, too, but there were a few curveballs starting all the way up at third overall.
Before we begin…
Be on the lookout for a new game type in the Underdog Fantasy lobby now that we’re waist deep into the 2021 rookie draft class. If you’ve been grinding tape on MAC prospects this quarantine, you’ll love what’s coming soon 👀
Rondale Moore, also known as:
Let’s work on that capitalization, Mattek.
Underdog Fantasy: Daily and Season-Long Fantasy Contests
Underdog Community Mock Draft was originally published in Underdog Sports on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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